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With the outright odds, we can calculate the probability that each continent will win the 2026 World Cup.
| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Europe | 2/7 | 77.52% |
| South America | 3/1 | 25.00% |
| Africa | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| North America | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Asia | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Rest of the World | 100/1 | 0.99% |
As of 21 June 2026, according to the odds, the favourite continent to win the 2026 World Cup is Europe, best priced at 2/7 with BetVictor.
The odds mean that the probability for a country in Europe to be the winner of the World Cup is 77.52%.
Backing an outright winner of the World Cup is certainly an avenue to finding some big odds, but tipping the continent from which the winner will come is certainly a good way to gain some "insurance" of riskier picks.
Below, we run through where you could exploit some value, whilst also giving you some food for thought on the subject.
A third of the teams (16) heading to the World Cup fall under the Europe umbrella. It instantly boosts their chances of being the winning continent, and that is reflected in the odds offered. It's hard to argue against, though, especially when you bring quality into the conversation, alongside quantity.
Spain, France and England rank as the top three nations in the straight World Cup winner market, with a Cristiano Ronaldo-inspired Portugal not too far behind in the betting, at 11/1. Even the dark horse of Norway falls into this Europe selection.
With more teams, elite level players, a highly competitive league structure on a week-to-week basis and plenty of big game experience amongst the squads, it would be a brave person to back another continent.
There will be readers fuming that Europe are odds on to provide the World Cup winner. Whilst South America offers up 10 fewer teams at the finals, they do boast the current holders - Argentina - and Brazil have lifted the trophy more times than any other nation.
Right now, that aforementioned duo feature at fourth and fifth in the list of outright favourites, with good cases to be made for both going all the way. In Lionel Messi, Argentina boast not only one of the players fancied for the Golden Boot but also, arguably, the greatest player of all time.
Brazil, meanwhile, have a coach in Carlo Ancelotti who is renowned for winning the big prizes, whilst they have previously lifted the World Cup on American soil.
Don't write off the inaugural World Cup winners either; Uruguay will think they can go deeper than many predict.
We all love the romance of football, don't we? Imagine the scenes as one of the host nations holds the famed trophy aloft. It would be wild.
It also won't happen. At least we doubt it - and the odds offered don't represent good value. Despite half a dozen sides falling into the North & Central American pot, the realistic challengers are going to be one of the three host nations: Canada, Mexico or the US.
We can absolutely imagine at least one of those sides having a decent run in the tournament, especially with their squads likely to be favoured by the travelling and general conditions. Reality bites, though. They're simply not good enough and any of them would bite your hand off for the quarter-finals.
Panama, Haiti and Curacao are the other three teams. Need we say anything?
Backing an African nation to win the World Cup would certainly be one of the more ambitious predictions you can make at a continent level. It has never happened before, though, and it will - eventually.
With 10 nations heading to North America, the continent is going to be well-represented and there are some good sides amongst those 10 as well.
Morocco are the standout of the bunch. They made the semi-finals in Qatar, which is the best ever performance by an African nation, and arrive into this tournament in stupendous form, whilst also boasting the 2026 AFCON crown to their name too.
The other finalist from that game, who actually won on the day, is Senegal. They'll be at the World Cup and looking to build on their round of 16 appearance four years ago. Egypt and Ghana are others to keep an eye on.
If you successfully back the winner of the World Cup to come from a continent outside of those listed above, you'll be in for a handsome payout.
South Korea and Australia are two nations included in that category, but the most likely to run deep from the "Rest of the World" category is Japan. They are a 66/1 shot in pre-tournament betting, though, which gives you an indication as to how much of a longshot it is!