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With the outright odds, we can calculate the probability that each team will reach the 2026 World Cup final.
| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| | 23/10 | 30.30% |
| | 3/1 | 25.00% |
| | 3/1 | 25.00% |
| | 4/1 | 20.00% |
| | 9/2 | 18.18% |
| | 5/1 | 16.67% |
| | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| | 11/1 | 8.33% |
| | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| | 17/1 | 5.56% |
| | 17/1 | 5.56% |
| | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| | 750/1 | 0.13% |
| | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
As of 21 June 2026, according to the odds, the favourite to reach the 2026 World Cup final is France, best priced at 23/10 with Sky Bet.
The odds mean that the probability for France to reach the final of the World Cup is 30.30%.
There is a saying in football that anything can happen in a one off game, especially in a cup final. With that in mind, it should be easier to predict who will reach the World Cup final, than predicting the outright winner, whilst it can also serve as a great safety net to that aforementioned "to lift the trophy" market.
Spain rank as the favourites to make the World Cup final, and you can definitely make a case for them doing exactly that. They won the most recent European Championships, playing the best football in the competition to boot, and they boast a strong squad of players too.
It won't be plain sailing for them here, though. Depending on how the groups play out, they could have a tricky path through to the final with France a potential Round of 16 opponent, before the likes of dark horse Norway in the next round.
You've then got to consider their squad. It's good, don't get us wrong, but Lamine Yamal has fitness concerns, there is no proven striker and there are some question marks at the back, especially at right back.
A possible Round of 16 clash between Spain and France is mouth-watering. If the route to the final plays out in that way, it is also probably the key fixture in deciding who reaches the World Cup final - despite some other challenging fixtures needing to be navigated. It is almost a 50/50 encounter and, as such, we think backing France in this market is the smarter move from a value angle.
Player-for-player, we would argue France can stand up the best team in the world, and the Transfermarkt squad valuation supports such a claim, benchmarking Didier Deschamps' squad as the highest of all participating nations.
The balance of the squad, the plethora of attacking threats and the fact they reached the final in Qatar all favour them too.
England experienced a host of missed opportunities under the tutelage of Gareth Southgate, exiting the 2022 World Cup in the quarter-final and making the final in Euro 2020 and 2024 respectively. With Thomas Tuchel in the dugout for this tournament, the expectation is that the Three Lions ensure "football comes home".
That would certainly tick the box of reaching the final, which is what this bet would need to come in. Are England a better side than they were under Southgate, though? You can probably make that argument. On that front, it stands this bet in reasonable stead.
What is almost for certain, though, is that they will have a tougher route to the latter stages of this World Cup than they have done in the recent tournaments. Can England navigate that? That's the gamble.
The bookies have Brazil quite high up in their odds to win the World Cup, but a lot of fans are sleeping on them a little bit, in our opinion. That's probably because they don't play the same scintillating football that they've been historically known for. We think they have a terrific chance of making the final.
Clearly, there are many variables to consider where the World Cup bracket is concerned, but there is a world where Brazil have a relatively kind run through to the showpiece game, whilst their group looks like one they'll easily navigate too.
When you then consider how they'd handle a tougher match up, not many nations will want to face them in a one-off game. Carlo Ancelotti is one of the best managers in the world, and players like Vini Jr are capable of destroying the best defences on their day.
We named Morocco as a dark horse in our World Cup winner odds, so, clearly, backing them could be an option here. To keep things fresh, though, we're going to give Japan a bit of love, whilst acknowledging they are a real longshot to go all the way to the final.
In the scheme of a World Cup path, there is a set of outcomes that offers Japan a relatively comfortable passage into the quarter-finals. From there, things would likely get tougher but there would only be 180 minutes separating them from the final.
They will arrive to North America in high spirits too. Japan have won six games on the spin, keeping a clean sheet in the most recent five and with victories over England and Brazil in that time.