With the outright odds, we can calculate the probability that each team will win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot.
| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| | 7/1 | 12.50% |
| | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Alvaro Morata | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Romelu Lukaku | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Niclas Fullkrug | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Richarlison | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Ferran Torres | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Mikel Merino | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Serge Gnabry | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Niclas Fullkrug | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Christopher Nkunku | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Memphis Depay | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Mateo Retegui | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Leroy Sane | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Dani Olmo | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Serge Gnabry | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Matias Goncalo Ramos | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Neymar | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Karim Adeyemi | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Michael Gregoritsch | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Maximilian Beier | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Assan Ouedraogo | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Julian Brandt | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Enner Valencia | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Deniz Undav | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Armando Gonzalez | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Giacomo Raspadori | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Folarin Balogun | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Francesco Esposito | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Antony | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Boulaye Dia | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Angel Correa | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Darwin Nunez | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Takefusa Kubo | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Iqraam Rayners | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Antonio Sanabria | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Christian Pulisic | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Luis Javier Suarez | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Julian Quinones | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kingsley Coman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rasmus Hojlund | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Patrik Schick | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Promise | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jhon Duran | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Oumar Diakite | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Paulo Dybala | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Isco | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| da Silva Luiz Henrique | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Sequeira Joao Felix | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Andreas Weimann | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Jonathan David | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Ayase Ueda | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Lee Kang Hee | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Jordan Ayew | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Habid Diallo | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Santiago Gimenez | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Wout Weghorst | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ruben Vargas | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Trezeguet | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Nicolas Pepe | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Mostafa Mohamed | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Mao Hosoya | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Nicolas Gonzalez | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Mostafa Fathi | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Mohamed Elneny | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Anthony Elanga | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Oh Hyeon-gyu | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Hamza Igamane | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Jean Philippe Krasso | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Jhon Cordoba | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Federico Vinas | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Dan Ndoye | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Breel Embolo | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Brian Rodriguez | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Felix Torres | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Gho Gue sung | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Folarin Balogun | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Angel Romero | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Johan Carbonero | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ignacio Laquintana | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Kevin Rodriguez | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Amas Diallo | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Giuliano Simeone | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Koki Ogawa | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| James Rodriguez | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Brahim Diaz | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Andrej Kramaric | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Dodi Lukebakio | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Kang-In Lee | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Kenan Yildiz | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Jhon Arias | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Hirving Lozano | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Orbelin Pineda | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Edin Dzeko | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Noa Lang | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Youssef En Nesyri | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Kenan Yildiz | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Facundo Torres | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Sadio Mane | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Mohammed Kudus | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Ivan Perisic | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Hazem Mastouri | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Robin Gosens | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Sebastien Haller | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Hwang Hee chan | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Roberto Alvarado | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Rodrigo Aguirre | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Thelo Aasgaard | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Simon Adringra | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Shuto Machino | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Seifeddine Jaziri | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Kerem Akturkoglu | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Tim Kleindienst | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Hakan Calhanoglu | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Cedric Bakambu | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Antonio Nusa | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Giovanni Reyna | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Facundo Pellistri | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Cyle Larin | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Christoph Baumgartner | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Michy Batshuayi | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Marcel Sabitzer | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Alessandro Schopf | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Gabriel Avalos | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Issahaku Fatawu | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Elias Saad | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Gonzalo Plata | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Andreas Gomez | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Cedric Itten | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Alexis Vega | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Baghdad Bounedjah | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Brian Brobbey | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Rafael Leao | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Nikola Vlasic | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Takumi Minamino | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Randal Muani | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Haris Tabakovic | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Marko Arnautovic | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Jayden Nelson | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Igor Matanovic | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| John Mercado | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Luis Sinisterra | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Zeki Amdouni | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Sardar Azmoun | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Naim Sliti | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Mitchell Duke | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Nabil Bentaleb | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Yassine Benzia | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Ali Al Hamadi | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Fiston Mayele | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Mislav Orsic | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Marco Pasalic | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Tomas Chory | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Mohanad Ali | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Mojmir Chytil | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Mohammed Amoura | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Ermedin Demirovic | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Aymen Hussein | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Youcef Belali | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Franjo Ivanovic | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Firas Al Buraikan | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Alphonso Davies | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Mohammed Muntari | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Lucas Cavallini | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Ahmed Alaaeldin | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Abdullah Al Hamdan | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Ernest Nuamah | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Duckens Nazon | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Bruno Petkovic | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Ahmed Al Rawi | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Derrick Etienne | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Adam Taggart | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Ante Budimir | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Amine Gouiri | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Frantzdy Pierrot | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Don Deedson Louicius | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Firas Chaouat | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Craig Goodwin | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Kusini Yengi | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Arda Guler | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Mehdi Taremi | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Saleh Al Shehri | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Salem Al Dawsari | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Promise David | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Ricardo Pepi | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Lois Openda | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Riyad Mahrez | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Luka Modric | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Mohamed Toure | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Che Adams | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Daichi Kamada | 375/1 | 0.27% |
| Lyndon Dykes | 375/1 | 0.27% |
| Julio Enciso | 375/1 | 0.27% |
| Ryan Christie | 375/1 | 0.27% |
| Jearel Margaritha | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Igor Sergeev | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Garry Rodrigues | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Musa Al Taamari | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Ryan Mendes | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Yazan Al Naimat | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Jose Fajardo | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Cecilio Waterman | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Brenden Aaronson | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Eldor Shomurodov | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Eduardo Guerrero | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Ali Alipour | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Kenji Gorre | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Alireza Jahanbakhsh | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Nestory Irankunda | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| John McGinn | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Martin Boyle | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Ben Waine | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
As of 30 April 2026, according to the odds, the favourite to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot is Kylian Mbappe, best priced at 6/1 with Bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for Kylian Mbappe to be the winner of the World Cup Golden Boot is 14.29%.