Latest League Two Odds: End of Season Drama

After another interesting weekend of League Two action, we’re back for another Odds Watch piece. From assessing the changes at the top to looking at those in danger of dropping, we’ll cover everything after the weekend’s action. 

Let's dive in.

The Race is On

The title race is on in League Two and it may be just as entertaining as the one taking place in the Premier League, albeit with fewer eyes. Bromley have led for months and it seemed that they would wrap up the league title with ease.

However, they have stumbled massively recently. With only one win in their last five, their grip on the league has weakened significantly. At the weekend, albeit against a good Cambridge United side, they were unable to get a lead and they are now forced to hope.

There are only two games left to play this season and a two-point gap is still in place. So, they will only confirm the league title this weekend if MK Dons are unable to win. 

That feels like a perfect introduction to the challengers. The Dons were expected to storm League Two this season and they have not. However, they have been consistent in the back end of the season and they may begin to make a move. 

They have won their last two games in a row and what seemed like a long-shot chance has now become a genuine chance that they win the league.

Considering they have the goal difference advantage, if Bromley slip, they can take a seat at the top of the league if they win both of their final games.

Will it be that simple? Well, that is something else entirely. You’d expect them to have a better chance, though.

Bromley will face Salford and Walsall in their last two games of the season, whilst the Dons face Tranmere and Fleetwood. On paper, it would point in the latter’s favour. Whether the league plays out on paper or on the pitch will be seen shortly.

The Battle for Third

In terms of the race for the final top three spot, it is becoming difficult to suggest that it will remain that way for much longer. 

Cambridge currently occupy the third spot in the table and they could extend their stay there this week. They face Grimsby in their game in hand, which will be a tough game.

However, if they manage to grab three points, they will move to four points clear of their rivals with two games to go. It would be pretty difficult for them to lose that position. 

With that said, the market offering is not too generous for them. At 1/7, there is not much value available. Instead, you’d probably be better backing them to beat the Mariners in midweek, presuming the market drops further if they win. 

Salford have made a late charge for the top three recently and their win against Oldham at the weekend has all but secured their play-off spot. They are certainly in the middle of a rock and a hard place.

If Cambridge win, they have little chance of getting third place, but they will secure play-offs. Should Grimsby win, they would still not be safe in the play-offs. However, they would have a chance to catch Cambridge. Which would be preferred?

Two losses in their last two have made it infinitely more difficult for Notts County to finish third. They are already three points behind with only two games to go. If that gap is extended in midweek, they will have little to no hope.

Even if it isn’t, you’d imagine it may be slightly past them. Paddy Power have them at 25/1 to get a top-three spot for a reason.

Late Shake Up

In terms of the play-offs, Swindon are stuttering a little bit. With only one win in their past five, they are looking a little shaky and they don’t have much safety in the play-offs.

They are only four points ahead of Grimsby in seventh. However, the Mariners do have that aforementioned game in hand. Should they win that game, Swindon would be two points away from Chesterfield, who would drop to seventh.

They will be hoping that Cambridge can do the business in midweek, then, especially considering they have not been the most convincing themselves recently.

Onto Chesterfield, their recent form is exactly what you would want to enter the play-offs with. With three wins in their last five and two draws, they are arguably the safer of the two teams sitting in sixth and seventh.

In the sense that, if they do drop out, you’d back them to dig their heels in and get the points required. Swindon haven’t shown that same grit recently. 

The best football bookmakers are not really offering any value here in the placings, unfortunately. Swindon are 1/4 for a top seven finish, Chesterfield are 8/11 and Grimsby are 10/11. At this stage, you’d want a little more to be offered. So be it…

Five Team Showdown

When coming to the bottom, we are looking at a fantastic picture. Any of the bottom five could go down and you can make cases for each team. That is brilliant for the neutral but woeful for any of the teams actually involved. 

Harrogate, somehow, have a chance at safety. Their win against Colchester at the weekend was only their ninth of the season and yet they have a shot at staying up.

Whilst they remain bottom, they have 36 points and were the only team in the bottom five to win at the weekend. In other words, they might just have a chance. 

As things stand, Barrow will be going down if they do not pick up any more points. Like Harrogate, they sit on 36 points with nine wins this season. They are just ahead on goal difference, though. The finest of margins. 

Just outside the dropzone, Newport have 37 points and like Harrogate, they have won two of their last five games. However, they are far from safe. Their goal difference is worse than both of the bottom two, so they are very much in danger.

Tranmere, who have not won since Valentine’s Day, then sit in 21st. In a normal relegation battle, they may be the favourites to stay up, thanks to the fact that they have a game in hand.

Yet, their record speaks for itself. What good is having a game in hand if you have struggled to pick up points for months now…

Finally, Crawley are the last team in danger of the drop. They are only two points ahead of 24th-placed Harrogate Town. It is fair to say that they are staring the drop in the face. Whilst they have the advantage of being the closest towards safety, they really aren’t close at all. 

The bookmakers think it is maybe more closed off than it is and the markets are maybe a little difficult to get involved with. Harrogate are priced at 10/29 to go down, with Unibet, whilst they also price Barrow as the second favourites at 7/12. 

William Hill are offering the best price on Newport County to succumb to the drop, whilst PricedUp are a whopping 15/4 for Tranmere to go down. Finally, Crawley are 8/1 for the drop. 

Considering they face Cheltenham, MK Dons and Grimsby (for what it's worth, the latter duo could need results to secure the title/play-offs), I’d be most tempted by Tranmere’s odds for the drop.

Almost 4/1 feels a little too high for a team who haven’t won in more than two months… 

We never really discuss the betting exchange here, but they are massively better priced with PricedUp than they are on the Betfair Exchange. If nothing else, you are getting a decent bit of value. However, I think it has a chance.