Latest League Two Odds: MK Dons Restart Title Race

After another interesting weekend of League Two action, we’re back for another Odds Watch piece. From assessing the changes at the top to looking at those in danger of the drop, we’ll cover everything after the weekend’s action. 

Let's dive in.

MK Dons Topple Bromley

Diving straight in, Bromley are really not making it easy to back them to win the League Two title. They have sat in a position of strength for weeks, if not longer now. However, they are starting to crumble a little. 

Indeed, the leaders’ recent form is incredibly patchy and they are getting really lucky with results around them. This weekend’s defeat means that they have only picked up seven points in their last five games, which is pretty average. 

Now, to address the elephant in the room. The defeat on Saturday came against MK Dons, who sit second in the table. Had they won there, the league would have been wrapped up, given they would have had a 10-point gap with three to play. It wasn’t to be, though. 

In fact, the Dons winning that game means that they are just four points away and the chase is more than on. Their form is equally patchy, with two losses and two draws before the win at the weekend.

However, their final run looks quite nice.

Facing Crewe (10th), Tranmere (20th) and Fleetwood (14th), you would expect the Dons to pick up nine points from nine available. However, that will not be enough.

Bromley must drop four points from their final nine available, but you’d certainly argue that it is possible…

In their final games, they face Cambridge, Salford and Walsall - who are pretty much done for the season. Their first two opponents, though, have a lot to play for.

Indeed, the former are hoping to secure an automatic promotion place, whilst Salford will hope to secure their play-off spot. 

With that said, Cambridge could make things infinitely more interesting with their game in hand. At present, they sit on 77 points and a win would take them level on games with the top two.

Furthermore, they would displace the Dons and move to second, just three points away from the leaders. 

Due to this potential gift of the scheduling, they are the second favourite to lift the league title later this season at 7/2. 

However, their fixtures look really horrible. Like MK Dons, they face Crewe, whilst also travelling to face Bromley. Games against Barrow and Grimsby make things no easier, too, given that both have a lot to fight for still.

In other words, they are tough to back at the price. So, if I were going to be taking on the league leaders, I would do so with MK Dons at 4/1…

The Battle for Third

We’re adding a new small section in here to discuss that aforementioned third-place spot. Most of the best football bookmakers are offering odds for it. So it makes sense to give it a little attention away from the play-off race, which looks almost done for some.

Cambridge are the clear favourites to take third and the bookmakers have them priced at 2/13 to take the spot. Given that we have already looked at them quite significantly in the title scene, we’ll leave it there for them. 

The only real competitor, I think, would be Notts County.

They are a point away currently and whilst that could extend to four points with the game in hand, it’s not a bad position to be in. Cambridge’s fixtures look immensely tough and whilst they have been pretty consistent this season, they could well slip with a horrible season finale.

However, the Magpies are also facing a torrid final three games of the season. They face the two most in-form teams in the division, Barnet and Bristol Rovers, with a game against Colchester sandwiched in between. 

In other words, they are far from guaranteed to make up the difference. With them being priced at 7/2, I’d probably just avoid this market; there isn’t any value there.

Games In Hand

Right, onto the play-offs! Swindon’s loss at the weekend has not helped them to solidify their promotion push. However, they have not really needed to. Indeed, their situation is fine with a six-point gap to seventh-placed Grimsby. Their loss at the weekend was only their first in the last month, so they are certainly in a good place. 

Salford have stagnated a little bit in recent weeks, picking up one point from their last six available. However, this is not necessarily too bad. Like Swindon, they have a pretty big gap to sit on. So, they are not sounding the alarms yet. 

Chesterfield’s position in the play-offs is the most worrying, given they sit in seventh. Even with their game in hand, things could very quickly change. Especially since they play Grimsby on Tuesday night.

The winner of that game will probably go into favouritism for the last play-off spot and it will be decisive, you feel. 

Grimsby are just a point away from the Spireites, having won four of their last five games. They also have the benefit of having two games in hand on some of their play-off rivals.

So, they could create a bit of a gap to the other chasing teams in the next few weeks. 

Ladbrokes actually prefer the Mariners to take that final spot too, with Chesterfield currently priced at 11/10, whilst Grimsby are as short as 4/5 to finish in the top seven.  

Barnet are hitting form at the right moment, and they are currently the second most in-form team in the league. However, they could be four or five points away from the top seven by the end of Tuesday. I’d not want to back them personally, even at 16/1.

Four Points, Five Teams

Onto the bottom of the league and things have got very, very interesting. Harrogate have returned to the foot of the table and their recent form is pretty torrid. With one win in their last five, they seem pretty doomed. 

Their final fixtures really don’t help, with play-off chasers Barnet and two mid-table outfits in Walsall and Colchester to come. Indeed, they may already be written off. 

Then we have Barrow, who are an interesting case. With a game in hand, you’d think that they may have more of a chance. However, that game is against Oldham, who have put together some fine form in recent weeks. It has dropped a little in the past two weeks. Yet, they’re still clear favourites to win that clash. 

Walsall and Cambridge follow before a clash against 22nd-placed Newport County in the final game of the season.

If the gap between them were smaller, it would be a bit more interesting. However, things could and probably will already be decided by then. 

There is a reason why they are 4/9 for the drop, put it that way.

Newport, Crawley and Tranmere each sit on 37 points, so four away from the bottom two, but you’d think that they are almost safe. 

Things could change with Barrow’s game in hand, of course. However, it feels unlikely that there will be a swing with it. With Newport being almost 3/1 to go down, the bookmakers feel the same, it seems.