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Below are betting odds for the top contenders to be the next permanent Reform leader after Nigel Farage.
With the betting odds, we can easily calculate the probability of each candidate being the next leader of the Reform Party, according to the bookmakers.
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| | 7/2 | 22.22% |
| | 5/1 | 16.67% |
| | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Laila Cunningham | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Matt Goodwin | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Jake Berry | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| | 28/1 | 3.45% |
| Nick Candy | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Nadhim Zahawi | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Sienna Churcher | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| James McMurdock | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Marco Longhi | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Ant Middleton | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Nadine Dorries | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Kate Hoey | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Jonathan Gullis | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Jaymey Mcivor | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Tommy Robinson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ann Widdecombe | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Thomas Skinner | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Elon Musk | 500/1 | 0.20% |
As of 20 May 2026, according to the odds, the favourite to be the next Reform leader is Robert Jenrick, best priced at 7/2 with Betfred.
The odds mean that the probability for Robert Jenrick to be the next Reform leader is 22.22%.

Steven is an experienced iGaming content writer who has been working in the industry since 2018. He is passionate about sports betting and enjoys writing about all aspects of the industry, including bookmaker reviews, betting tips and strategies, and news and analysis.