Ligue 1 Relegation Odds
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Ligue 1 Relegation Odds (2026/27)
Compare the latest odds for the 2026/27 Ligue 1 relegation race below.
Betway 
Bet365 
BetMGM 
QuinnBet 
LeoVegas 
BetGoodwin 
BetAhoy 
BetTom 
The Favourites to Be Relegated in the 26/27 Ligue 1
- Le Havre with odds 4/9 on Betway
- Troyes with odds 21/20 on Betway
- Le Mans with odds 11/8 on Bet365
- Angers with odds 7/4 on Bet365
- Auxerre with odds 9/4 on Bet365
Probability to Be Relegated in the 26/27 Ligue 1 Season
With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability that each team will be relegated from Ligue 1, according to the bookmakers.
| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Le Havre | 4/9 | 69.44% |
 Troyes | 21/20 | 48.78% |
 Le Mans | 11/8 | 42.02% |
 Angers | 7/4 | 36.36% |
 Auxerre | 9/4 | 30.77% |
 Brest | 7/1 | 12.50% |
 Nice | 10/1 | 9.09% |
 Lorient | 10/1 | 9.09% |
 Toulouse | 16/1 | 5.88% |
 Strasbourg | 16/1 | 5.88% |
 Marseille | 80/1 | 1.23% |
 Paris FC | 200/1 | 0.50% |
 Lens | 200/1 | 0.50% |
 Rennes | 350/1 | 0.28% |
 Lille | 500/1 | 0.20% |
 Lyon | 750/1 | 0.13% |
 Monaco | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
 PSG | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
Who is the Favourite to Be Relegated in Ligue 1?
As of 26 October 2026, according to the odds, the favourite to be relegated from Ligue 1 is Le Havre, best priced at 4/9 with Betway.
The odds mean that the probability for Le Havre to be relegated is 69.44%.
Ligue 1 Relegation: 2026-27 Ante-Post Tips
Picking relegated teams is never 'easy', but there are certain leagues where it's easier.
Ligue 1, thankfully, is one of them.
The money in the French top division is not great, but once you adapt, you remain comfortable for a while. It's why the same teams stay up and the same teams tend to bounce around a bit.
So, it's all about adapting.
Starting bottom, I've got Le Mans, who I think have very little hope of adapting in all honesty. They've not spent a penny this summer and that already sends alarm bells around my head.
Even the players that have arrived, you're not looking at them as players you want in a dog fight. You need a touch of quality and I just don't think they have that. Hence why they are under Evens to go down this season.
Then, I think Troyes will follow them. It's a double relegation prediction, it's perhaps a bit boring, but I think it's got a good chance. Troyes have seen some money spent this summer, but it has only been €2 million on Patrick Beach, a goalkeeper from Melbourne City.
However, they've lost Mathys Detourbet - a highly rated winger - to Manchester City, as well as Martin Adeline and Sankhoun Diawara, who were both impressive young players in the squad.
Again, they've not replaced these figures well enough (or even enough). So, it may already be fair to deem them as good as gone...
Finally, I think Angers could succumb to the drop - but this is riskier with the play-off system in France.
They collected 14 points in the second half of the season, only beaten by two clubs (Nice and FC Metz) and no one scored fewer goals than them with nine. Even Metz, who didn't win a single game in the second half of the season, scored more.
After losing Sidiki Cherif - who was sold for around €18m - they have spent €250k. In other words, their squad has taken a hit and nothing is being done to replace the quality.
You'd fear for them.
How Relegation Works in Ligue 1
Just like the Bundesliga, Ligue 1 is a league that consists of 18 teams rather than 20, with the latter being the standard among Europe's top leagues. As a result, the bottom two teams are relegated at the end of every season, while the third team must take part in a play-off tie. This is played over two legs against the play-off winner in Ligue 2.
Metz finished third from the bottom in the 2023/24 season on the same amount of points as Lorient, though with a better head-to-head away goals scored record (!). It wasn't enough in the end, though, as St. Etienne won the play-off game and thus secured their spot in the top flight for the current season.
