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Compare the latest odds for the top-four race in the 2026/27 season of La Liga below.
With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability that each team will finish in the top 4 in La Liga, according to the bookmakers.
| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| | 1/200 | 100.00% |
| | 1/66 | 99.01% |
| | 2/9 | 81.97% |
| Real Betis | 2/1 | 33.33% |
| Villarreal | 9/4 | 30.77% |
| | 11/4 | 26.67% |
| | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Racing Santander | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Malaga | 40/1 | 2.44% |

Real Madrid. Barcelona. Atletico Madrid.
It's worth giving a nod to Atleti here, simply because I've not mentioned them yet. However, those three are a shoo-in for the top four again this year. With the latter, they've spent €100 million so far this summer, and it is difficult to really look past their squad for third.
Of course, the loss of Antoine Griezmann could cause a bit of a stir-up, but they've replaced him well this summer. In addition to this, their record last season was massively hindered by their run in the Champions League and them having the license to effectively drop their La Liga campaign for a chance of European silverware.
Dare I say that 2/7 looks like value with the big two both priced at 1/40+ for a top four spot?
For what it's worth, you can also get 4/6 for them to win La Liga without Real and Barca - effectively for them to finish third - and I don't mind that either after their summer business.
Now, we move onto the fourth spot and this is where things get rather interesting. Outside of the trio, the shortest odds are around 3/1 and it's no surprise, really.
I'm not going to stray from that price bracket, though. Indeed, my pick here is for Real Betis to take the final spot in the top four and that's priced at 11/4 with BetTom - which is a new bookmaker, and we reviewed it recently.
In the second half of last season, Betis picked up 32 points from 20 games falling behind only Valencia and the big two in that regard, and they have not lost any major pieces of their team this summer.
The signings of Facundo Bernal and Fran Garcia look pretty solid on paper and one would argue that could well be all they needed to get into the top four this season after a fifth-placed finish last year.
Considering that most football leagues are far behind the Premier League on the revenue front, including La Liga, the Champions League is very important for the finances. Qualification for the big competition is secured by finishing in the top four, hence why the race is so important for Spanish clubs.
In La Liga's case, the clubs have usually been able to rely on a bonus spot for the Champions League, with the fifth-placed team qualifying as well. This has been thanks to their performance across the European competitions, as two bonus spots are handed out to the best associations during the season.