UCL Final 2024: Dortmund vs. Real Madrid - Betting Tips and Preview

Dortmund vs. Real Madrid preview
Ben Dixon
Ben Dixon Published: 31/05/2024

If you want to see our betting tips straight away, scroll down or navigate with the table of contents above.

Champions League Final 2024: Preview

The Champions League final is, without a doubt, the biggest fixture in club football and this edition is no different. Looking at the past nine months, there have been plenty of shocks in the competition and Saturday’s fixture could offer another with the favourites, Real Madrid, facing off against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley Stadium.

Both teams have had their share of exceptional results in the competition. Throughout, they have provided some fantastic value for punters, and we are hoping that they show the same value again on the final match day of this illustrious competition.

So, with value in mind and glory awaiting one side, let’s dive in, taking a closer look at both teams and the areas of value that both provide.

Borussia Dortmund - Team News and Key Players

Drawn in the ‘Group of Death’ alongside Paris Saint-Germain, Newcastle United and AC Milan, few expected the German outlet to progress from the group, let alone top it with 11 points. From there, they have continued to shatter expectations of their ability. Doubts have been in place consistently, but now, they are in the Champions League final after beating one of their groupmates, PSG, in the semi-final.

Their excellence in the Champions League has not been matched with their performances in the Bundesliga. However, you could argue they have not lost much, at least on paper. Bayer Leverkusen have been the story of the season, winning the league unbeaten, crossing their chances of winning the title and whilst they have finished 5th, they have still claimed a Champions League spot for next season due to Germany’s co-efficient ranking.

Dortmund have not stopped dreaming this season, and they will dream once more at Wembley, where they will aim to go one better than they did 11 years ago at the same venue against Bayern Munich to win their second-ever Champions League trophy.

It is not their attacking output where BVB excel. Yes, they have the fifth most goals in the competition, but this is due to their progress in the competition. Instead, Dortmund are where they are due to their defensively resolute football, which is a normality amongst German outfits, and this was reflected in the last round against PSG with two clean sheets against one of the most proficient attacking sides in Europe.

Gregor Kobel has been the diamond of the defence, keeping six clean sheets in their 11 Champions League games, and whilst fans will hope he is not called into action often, they can be confident in his ability between the sticks. Whilst not the most dangerous team, they still have inspiration in the final third, and that mainly comes from Julian Brandt, who has four contributions in the competition, and a further 18 in the Bundesliga.

Borussia Dortmund Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Sabitzer, Can; Sancho, Brandt, Adeyemi; Fullkrug.

Real Madrid - Team News and Key Players

Although they are a young side, this Real Madrid squad are not lacking Champions League experience. Los Blancos have a rich European history, both in a recent and complete sense. In the past 10 seasons, including this one, Real have been in the final six times and they have won every single time thus far. Therefore, they will be hoping to go six for six on Saturday, winning their 15th title in the process.

Real have been favourites for the competition since the start, legacy aids this, as does having a team and manager like Los Blancos have. Carlo Ancelotti is one of the greatest managers of all time, and there are rightly arguments about whether the words ‘one of’ could be removed, winning at Wembley will be his sixth time lifting the trophy across his time as a manager and a player, and he is guiding his young team to stardom if they were not there already.

In their group, Real displayed their dominance, winning all six games and only conceding seven goals in the process. This trend has continued throughout the competition, not only have they remained unbeaten throughout the tournament, but they have knocked out Manchester City and Bayern, two other strong favourites for the silverware. This proved their credentials even further, if that even needed doing.

There can be no doubts about the quality of Ancelotti’s side, as the Italian coach has regularly said. He allows his youngsters freedom in their play and they regularly repay his faith with magnificent showings of their beautiful technical abilities, ruthless attacks and dictating defensive performances.

As you would expect, quality is threaded through Real’s squad, and the pinnacle of that is their attacking lineup. Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo are a trio of excellence despite only having a combined age of 66. A versatile front three, capable of playing as an attacking midfielder and two narrow strikers or as a traditional front three, with the two strikers going wide and Bellingham through the middle - a role which Ancelotti has innovated for the Englishman, and he is reaping the rewards.

Real Madrid Predicted XI (4-3-1-2): Courtois; Carvajal, Rudiger, Nacho, Mendy; Valverde, Camavinga, Kroos; Bellingham; Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior

Champions League Final 2024: Our Betting Tips

We have selected five tips for the Champions League final between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid, helping you find good odds for the action.

Unibet

Total Shots in the Match Over 26.5 - 19/20 at Unibet

With it being a Champions League final, we expect it to be a bit more cagey, at least at first, which is why this line is not higher. However, neither team will be fearful coming into this game, and with an average amount of shots per game at 30, we think over 26.5 provides some excellent value at some great odds.

bet365

Over 10.5 Corners - 6/5 at Bet365

In regards to corners, we can see this tie being a high-scoring fixture, and Ancelotti’s side have an average of 6.2 per game, compared to Dortmund’s 5.4. Looking at the previous stage of the competition, Real’s games against Bayern had 11 and 12 corners in each game, whereas the German outfits’ games against PSG saw 7 and 16. Therefore, 11 or more looks really good, and if a side need to claw a goal back in the game late on, this number could be smashed.

bet365

Both Teams to Get 2+ Bookings - 6/5 at Bet365

The booking market is an interesting one, and we shall dive further into this later. However, both teams to get two or more bookings looks like a great opportunity. In previous finals, this market has not been the kindest, with referees often wanting to not allow the game to get out of control, but Real have an average of 4 cards per game in their fixtures, with two cards received for both sides. Whilst Dortmund do not match the same figure, we can see the German outfit having issues against the favourites’ attackers and picking up cards.

Unibet

Emre Can to Be Booked - 43/20 at Unibet

We said we were going to revisit the card market, this time, we’re doing so individually with Emre Can to get a booking. The German midfielder has made 15 fouls in 10 games in the Champions League, the ninth most amount in the tournament, and he will likely be tasked with stopping Jude Bellingham who has won the third most fouls in the competition this season with 18 in 10 games. Can will definitely have a difficult task on his hands, and in the final, we think he will stop at nothing to ensure the Englishman does not get the best of him.

BetVictor

Real Madrid to Win from Behind - 17/2 BetVictor

This selection is a bit of a wildcard, but, we like it. Dortmund score just above half of their goals in the first half, and Real concede 54% of their goals in the first half, fine margins, but a difference nonetheless. However, Edin Terzic’s side score 36% of their goals in the opening half an hour, a period where Los Blancos concede 46% of their goals, and therefore, we could see Dortmund pipping an early lead. However, we think that Ancelotti’s side will win, and at the price, we think this is superb value.

Champions League Final 2024: Match Odds

It is understandable why Los Blancos come into this game as favourites. Their European pedigree speaks for itself, and their quality speaks for itself. However, Dortmund will not be pushovers, they have been the underdog in every phase of the competition, from they won’t, to they might, and to now, they could, and they will believe that they will.

Finals are always a spectacle, and this one will hopefully follow that trend. Dortmund’s resolute football could be a perfect antidote to Ancelotti’s youthful stars. The underdogs could beat the inevitable, and that’s why finals, let alone Champions League finals, are fantastic.

Madrid come into the final priced at 3/10 to win the trophy in most places, and it will be nearly impossible to find odds any higher than that on the best football betting sites. However, if you fancy the underdog, you will be offered 5/2 by most bookmakers. If you fancy a winner in normal time, Madrid are priced at 8/13, whereas Dortmund are being offered at 4

Ben Dixon
Ben Dixon
Last updated: 31/05/2024

Accredited football journalist with a focus on Italian football, working for the likes of SempreMilan and Serie A Total. As an avid punter, I enjoy browsing sportsbooks for the best-value bets.