Latest Championship Odds: Automatic Promotion Hopes for Four

We are approaching the final game of the Championship season and there is still a lot that can be decided. In terms of outrights, this is the final chance we have to get some value. Let’s dive straight in.

Ipswich Favourites, but Shake Up Possible

With Coventry City wrapping up the league title, the next spot to be decided is the second automatic place and it still must be decided. It is not yet done, despite what the best football bookmakers may suggest. 

Of course, with Ipswich Town having a game in hand, things could be all but wrapped up before the weekend even begins. However, we all know that the Championship is rarely that simple. Indeed, there are still opportunities for shocks.

So, it is fitting that their game in hand is against another promotion threat. Indeed, they will face Southampton on Tuesday night and with the Saints’ recent form, you could not say confidently who would win this game. 

Of course, they also have a lot to play for. With them sitting on 76 points currently, they must win if they are to have any chance of getting into second place on the final day. It would definitely be asking for a lot from them. 

Even if they do win, the difference will not be substantial. Ipswich, of course, sit in second currently, but they are followed by Millwall, who have 80 points as well. Middlesbrough sit in fourth currently, but they could be displaced with a Southampton win.

In other words, everyone but the Tractor Boys will be hoping that the Saints can cause some late drama. 

The hosts are 5/4 to win Tuesday’s game at St Mary’s, but you couldn’t write either side out of it. It is a difficult game to have a bet on. So, let’s look in advance at the possible outcomes. 

Ipswich’s (Favourable) Chances

If Ipswich win, they will go up. Millwall would need at least a 17 goal swing on the final day to have any hope and that would also require Ipswich losing to QPR at home on the final day. Considering the Tractor Boys are 3/13 for a spot in the top two, there is infinitely more value in backing them to win against Southampton, or failing that, QPR.

They are 3/13 to finish second for a reason.

Millwall’s Hopes

It’s full-time at St Mary’s and Southampton kept the automatic promotion race alive. The odds are still against the Lions due to Goal Difference, but the dream is still on. This weekend, all they need to do is beat Oxford United, who have already been relegated to League One, and hope Ipswich draw or lose.

Getting their job should be simple enough, but again, they are reliant on Ipswich. The bookmakers give them a 4/1 chance of everything falling into place.

Middlesbrough’s Last Gasp Attempt

After leading the division at one point, there is a chance that Boro will have to go through the play-off ordeal once again. But what if they don’t. Again, Southampton must stop Ipswich from winning. However, a draw would be ideal for them, to ensure that the race for second is kept at three teams.

If they want to go up, Ipswich and Millwall must lose or draw on the final day and they need to take three points against Wrexham. Again, asking a lot and the bookmakers give them the lowest chance of the four at 28/1.

Southampton’s Saving Grace?

Southampton’s fate is arguable as simple as Ipswich’s. They must win on Tuesday to even have a hope of going back to the Championship automatically. A win would take them to 79 points, so again, their fate would be in the hands of others.

On the final day, they would have to beat Preston North End. 25/1 is about right, considering how much needs to go in their favour.

Three Battle for Sixth

Onto the play-offs! We have a final day show-down between Wrexham, Hull and Derby, who each are heading into this weekend with the hopes that they can get three points and potentially get in to the Premier League.

The trio have been scrapping for the position in recent weeks and it has created a fantastic bit of drama away from a title race which quickly died down towards the end of the season. It has lacked quality at times. However, it undeniably makes for great drama. 

At present, Wrexham sit in the driving seat. However, that seat is wobbly and only at the front on one goal difference - I guess that’s the car analogy? Sitting on 70 points, they only have the spot ahead of Hull thanks to their slightly better defence. It is very tight to call.

Then, Derby sit in 7th and are hoping to sneak into the top six on the final day after flirting with the place heavily in recent months. Again, let’s look at what each team needs as we head into the final game of the league season.

Wrexham’s Dream

Wrexham are in a really difficult position heading into the final day. They travel to the Riverside to take on a Middlesbrough side who may still have a chance at automatic promotion. However, if Ipswich win in midweek, they could look to rest a few players with a play-off spot already confirmed. 

The sides drew 1-1 earlier in the season and that same result would help neither team, least of all the Red Dragons who would become very vulnerable to being overtaken. Despite taking that spot into the final game of the season, they are second favourites at 6/4.

Hull’s Favouritism

For Hull, the task is not really any simpler. Whilst they are the hosts, they face Norwich who have been in incredible form in recent months. Despite originally facing the threat of relegation, they are now only a few points away from the play-offs. An incredible recovery.

With the Tigers scoring more goals already, they must better Wrexham’s result by one goal to take that final spot. There is a reason why they are the 11/8 favourites.

Derby Delight Awaiting?

Finally, we come to Derby, who have the odds stacked against them. They are a point behind, so they must better the results of both teams to go up. Their goal difference is high enough where a point on the final day would secure a play-off spot if both of the teams ahead of them lose.

Facing Sheffield United at Pride Park could be a gift, too, with the Blades losing three of their last five games. I wouldn’t be putting you off a bet at 15/4, especially with it being better odds than a combination of the results that they need to secure promotion.

Ben's Championship Promotion Pick

As it’s the final gameweek, where things can still change, I am going to take a stab at the promotion markets, obviously avoiding Ipswich. However, I’m not going to look too far away from the top of the market. The value is not too high, and you’re better to ladder the bets, if you are looking for that. 

Nevertheless, I think my pick would be Millwall, who are maybe going under the radar a little bit. They are guaranteed a top six spot and they could even get promoted automatically, which would really shake things up.

If they were to get the play-offs, I would not be too worried, as well. They lost to Middlesbrough by a goal on H2H this season, but have been the more consistent side in recent months. Against Ipswich, they drew both games - though, it is difficult to see them both playing in the play-offs to end the season.

Their record against Derby is positive, drawing one game and then winning the other, and the same can be said about their record against Southampton.

Two 3-1 results against Hull give an even ranking, but the Tigers’ recent form is cause for concern. Then, there is Wrexham, where both games were 2-0 to each team.

Bet365 give them a 9/4 shot in terms of promotion. However, I think that may be a little high…

Relegation Confirmed

We have nothing to say about the relegation picture any more, given Oxford United were relegated despite winning, thanks to West Brom’s draw against Ipswich. That points deduction did give them a chance, but it was always going to be a slim one. 

Indeed, this means the U’s will join Leicester City (we’re still in disbelief about that) and Sheffield Wednesday in League One next season.