Latest League One Odds: Final Day Drama Awaits

We are approaching the final game of the League One season and there is still a lot that can be decided. In terms of outrights, this is the final chance we have to get some value. Let’s dive straight in.

Three on the Final Day

With the League One title won and Cardiff confirmed to be going up in second, we are left dealing with the play-off picture and that is it. Even then, though, it is not an extensive race. Only one place is left in the top six. 

Stevenage currently take the final spot, but drawing at the weekend has prevented them from all but securing a place in the play-offs this season. They lead the chasers by a point currently, but that would’ve been three without a 69th minute goal from Billy Sharp at the weekend. 

Who’d have thunk that it would be Doncaster Rovers breathing life into the play off race at this late stage of the season!

Sitting behind them, Luton grabbed a huge three points against Barnsley to make it four wins in their last five games and they are in fine form heading into the season finale. They are just a point away, but they have a significantly better goal difference. In other words, they cannot be written off just yet.

Finally, we have Plymouth Argyle, who sit in eighth. Yet, they still have a solid chance, even being two points behind. Of course, this makes the equation all the more difficult.

However, it is impossible to say that they have not laid strong foundations for next season at the very least, if they are unable to get back in the Championship at the end of this season.

So, let’s go through what each team needs this weekend, if they are to secure a play-off spot. 

Stevenage's Safety?

It is clear that Stevenage hold all the cards and this may be a bit of a non-starter conversation. Ultimately, they face a Wigan side that have not won in two games and they are already safe in League One. So, whilst they might not roll over, they might not be the most difficult opposition.

A win would confirm their spot in the play-offs, regardless of what happens around them and the bookmakers give them an 11/17 chance of beating Wigan this weekend. Alternatively, you can get 1/2 for them to finish in the top six. Pick your choice, there is probably value in both. 

Luton Town Needing Luck

You have to feel for Luton a little bit, their recent form has been magnificent. However, they may have just a bit much to do. A final day trip to Bolton Wanderers awaits them and this creates a really difficult scenario.

The Whites have already confirmed their play-off spot, but they could still move between third and fifth, depending on what happens this weekend. So, whether they will rest players ahead of the play-offs is unknown. It is certainly a much more difficult fixture for the Hatters. A draw could be enough, if Stevenage lose and Plymouth draw or also lose. However, that is leaving a lot in the hands of others. 

They are currently 7/2 for a play-off spot.

Plymouth's Potential Party

Last but not least, we have Plymouth, who cannot do anything but win this weekend. They sit two points behind Stevenage, so a win is a must. If they draw, though, they will have a chance, thanks to their much better goal difference.

Luton, in the same breath, cannot win as well. A draw would remove them from the equation. So, Plymouth may still have a chance despite being last of the pack currently. The bookmakers give them a 4/1 chance of everything going in their favour.

Ben's League One Promotion Pick

As it’s the final gameweek, where things can still change, I am going to take a stab at the promotion markets. I think there are certainly a few teams with good chances and it is a difficult one to weigh up with some strong teams not confirmed. 

If Luton were already confirmed for a top six place, they would be my bet. Saying that, I’d still be tempted to have a smaller play on them. I think 14/1 is too big for a side who have already won at Wembley this season and have the best form in the race. 

They have strong Head-to-Head form against their play-off rivals, beating Stockport County well over their three games this season. Then, they have drawn their three games against Bradford City and Bolton (with the second coming this weekend). 

They are certainly a risk, but they’d be my pick now. 

If forced to pick one of the confirmed teams, I may just side with Stockport County. Their recent record against Bolton is superb - Bolton last won in 2023 - and that could well continue with the Whites’ shaky form.

Whilst their record against Bradford and Stevenage is shaky recently, they have play-off experience and we saw last year how that can have an impact.

At 9/4, they’d be my ‘safer’ pick. However, I’d be less willing to back the price than I would be to back Luton’s. Ultimately, you can get better than 9/4 by betting on the games individually.

Last Spot Opens

Finally, we can have a brief look at the relegation spots. As it stands, Exeter City will be taking the final spot in the bottom four, joining Port Vale, Rotherham and Northampton in League Two. However, things could be shaken up.

Their draw at the weekend was their third in a row, and their sixth point from their last 12 available. It’s honestly not that bad of a record for a relegation threatened side. However, this is where the desperation begins.

Exeter City Doomed?

We’ll start with Exeter, who are facing a mountain. Only a win will be enough for them to have a chance at staying up. Leyton Orient are the most catchable team ahead of them, considering Peterborough have a six goal advantage in the Goal Difference standings.

So, Posh would have to get battered and Exeter would have to batter Bradford City. In other words, it is between two. 

They must win against Bradford to even have a chance of safety. The Bantams have a play-off spot confirmed, so they may not field a strong XI to rest players ahead of their promotion quest. That is not guaranteed, of course.

It leaves a lot to do and it will not be easy, that is why the bookies have them at 1/7 to go down. If you don’t think they’ll do it, Bradford/Draw is 1/3 this weekend. So, you’re getting more value backing that, rather than them to go down.

Leyton Orient Needing Something

Leyton Orient have not won since the end of March and are in dire need of a point or three this weekend. A draw would mean that they have a three point lead over Exeter. If the Grecians were to win, though, the O’s would be relegated on goal difference. 

With a home game against Burton Albion - who are already safe - they may have an opportunity to secure survival. Here it is vital to remember that they only need to draw and hope for Exeter to not win to survive.

They are 11/2 to go down, so the bookmakers are pretty strong on their chances of survival. So was I last week, when I laughed at the 16/1 price available...

Peterborough Safe... surely

It is not really worth discussing Peterborough’s safety hopes. They would have to see a six goal swing in their game, with Exeter winning and Leyton Orient winning. There is a reason why they are 70/1 (yes, seventy) to go down. Seeing it happen would be some of the biggest EFL drama of all time.