Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 10: Betting Tips and Insight

Fantasy Premier League is one of the biggest football games on the planet, but it can also be a great way to bet, and vice versa. So, we wanted to take a look at some fixtures and also rankings.

Below, you can find a preview of the weekend's fixtures, as well as the players 'most likely' to score, assist and make saves.

Fixture Ranking

It's best to start with the fixtures, and this weekend's are as follows:

• Crystal Palace vs Brentford
• Nottm Forest vs Man United
• Burnley vs Arsenal
• Brighton vs Leeds United
• Fulham vs Wolves
• Tottenham vs Chelsea
• Liverpool vs Aston Villa
• West Ham vs Newcastle
• Man City vs Bournemouth
• Sunderland vs Everton

For what it is worth, we have also got our Super Six predictions ready, if you would like some further insight into the games. However, this is going to be solely based on statistics, rather than personal predictions, really.

From the Official Fantasy Premier League rankings, the following teams have the easiest fixtures:

• Arsenal vs. Burnley (H) - 2
• Brighton vs. Leeds (H) - 2
• Everton vs. Sunderland (A) - 2
• Fulham vs. Wolves (H) - 2
• Newcastle vs. West Ham (A) - 2
• Sunderland vs. Everton (H) - 2

Using the odds from the bookmakers, we can find out the 'implied probability' of different results too, so according to the bookies, we have the following 'most likely' results:

1. Arsenal to Win vs. Burnley - 8/25 (75.76% implied probability)
2. Manchester City to Win vs. Bournemouth - 13/25 (65.79% implied probability)
3. Liverpool to Win vs. Aston Villa - 3/5 (62.50% implied probability)
4. Newcastle United to Win vs. West Ham - 4/6 (60% implied probability)
5. Fulham to Win vs. Wolves - 83/100 (54.64% implied probability)

Outcome

Arsenal, undoubtedly, have the best fixture of the week, facing a Burnley side which they will be expected to beat if they are to remain a strong choice for the Premier League title. In fact, it is a little surprising that this fixture was not given the easiest ranking by the FPL, officially.

Manchester City and Liverpool follow as the next two favourites, and I wouldn't be 100% confident of either. The Citizens have looked strong recently, but you cannot write off a Bournemouth side who have been phenomenal. Elsewhere, the Reds look shaky. I won't be backing either.

Newcastle United, all things considered, should be a lower price I think. So, they look like a decent bet for the weekend's action. The same could be said about Fulham, whose game against Wolves looks quite easy on paper.

I also think that Crystal Palace and Brighton should win this weekend, too. But, their oppositions are slightly more difficult to read at the moment.

Betting recommendations: Arsenal, Newcastle United and Fulham to WIN

FPL Clubs to target: ARS, NEW, FUL, CRY, BHA

Clean Sheet Rankings

Whilst a lot of this section is probably similar to the actual fixture rankings, here we're going to be looking at the clubs most likely to keep Clean Sheets. As you would expect, many of the 'easier' fixtures also have lower Clean Sheet Odds.

So, taking the outcome from 'Exact' goals from all 10 Premier League games this weekend, we have found the highest and lowest odds.

The team most likely to keep a clean sheet this weekend, as you would expect, is Arsenal, and their odds are below Evens, which is quite rare. They have a 57.14% chance of a clean sheet, according to the odds.

Following them, Fulham have a 43.48% chance of a clean sheet against Wolves, and I am surprised that this price is not a little lower. A chance for a bet, in my eyes, at 13/10.

Newcastle United and Manchester City follow, with both being priced at 6/4 for a clean sheet at the weekend.

At the other end of the spectrum, it will come as no surprise that Burnley are the most likely to concede a goal this weekend, with an 11.76% (15/2) likelihood of a clean sheet.

Outcome

Arsenal should keep a clean sheet away against Burnley, given that they are arguably the best defensive team in Europe, let alone the Premier League. Elsewhere, Fulham should also be strong at home against Wolves.

I wouldn't be surprised if Newcastle kept a clean sheet against West Ham, again, despite being away from home. However, I cannot understand why City's odds of a clean sheet are so favourable...

Elsewhere, I don't think Manchester United's odds of a clean sheet are too bad, and I'd be tempted to look at them for a bet.

FPL Clubs to target: ARS, FUL, NEW

Scorer and Assist Bets

It is probably right for this bit to come last, simply based on the fact that we can take the odds from the results and also the list of Clean Sheet odds. So, we're going to target those teams that are seemingly a little more vulnerable.

However, this is a strange week for the odds, with me actually quite intrigued by 17 of the 20 teams' odds. So, we'll start at the top, with the team's expectancy for a clean sheet following:

Manchester City Clean Sheet - 40.00% (6/4)

Brighton Clean Sheet - 38.10% (13/8)

Liverpool Clean Sheet - 35.71% (9/5)

Crystal Palace Clean Sheet - 35.71% (9/5)

Everton Clean Sheet - 34.48% (19/10)

Manchester United Clean Sheet - 30.77% (9/4)

Sunderland Clean Sheet - 30.77% (9/4)

Chelsea Clean Sheet - 25.64% (29/10)

Spurs Clean Sheet - 25.00% (3/1)

Wolves Clean Sheet - 22.73% (17/5)

Nottingham Forest Clean Sheet - 21.74% (18/5)

Brentford Clean Sheet - 20.00% (4/1)

Leeds Clean Sheet - 20.00% (4/1)

West Ham Clean Sheet - 17.86% (23/5)

Aston Villa Clean Sheet - 14.29% (6/1)

Bournemouth Clean Sheet - 12.50% (7/1)

Burnley Clean Sheet - 11.76% (15/2)

From this, we can see that there is an 88.24% chance that Arsenal will score vs. Burnley, whilst Bournemouth have a 60% chance of scoring against Manchester City. In other words, there are several fixtures to target.

After going through the odds of each player, though, here are the most likely 10 players to score or assist this weekend:

1. Erling Haaland (MCI) vs. Bournemouth - 69.23% (4/9)
2. Mo Salah (LIV) vs. Aston Villa - 63.64% (4/7)
3. Alexander Isak (LIV) vs. Aston Villa - 61.90% (8/13)
4. Viktor Gyokeres (ARS) vs. Burnley - 57.89% (8/11)
5. Bukayo Saka (ARS) vs. Burnley - 57.89% (8/11)
6. Jean-Philippe Mateta (CRY) vs. Brentford - 54.55% (5/6)
7. Nick Woltemade (NEW) vs. West Ham - 54.55% (5/6)
8. Matheus Cunha (MUN) vs. Nottingham Forest - 52.38% (10/11)
9. Hugo Ekitike (LIV) vs. Aston Villa - 51.28% (19/20)
10. Joao Pedro (CHE) vs. Spurs - 51.22% (20/21)

Outcome

It comes as no surprise that the top three remain largely unchanged, with Haaland, Salah and Isak all liked to score. However, I am a little shocked that both Arsenal forwards (Gyokeres and Saka) are not slightly better priced. Against Burnley, both should be quite involved.

Elsewhere, I really like the odds of the next three, being Mateta, Woltemade and Cunha. All have a great chance this weekend, and the odds are rather nice, one would say.

Elsewhere, I think Eberechi Eze's odds are nice at 27/20, whilst Danny Welbeck's odds against Leeds are nice at 6/5. Anthony Gordon against West Ham could also provide a nice opportunity at 1/1.

FPL PLAYERS to target: Any ARS attacker, Mateta, Woltemade, Cunha, Welbeck, Gordon

FPL PLAYERS to avoid: Burnley, Brentford, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Spurs, Leeds, West Ham, Bournemouth

For those looking for the complete list of odds for the games, clean sheets, and contributions, it can be seen below.