With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability of winning Best Picture at the Oscars, according to the bookmakers.
Actor | Odds | Probability |
---|---|---|
The Brutalist | 5/6 | 54.55% |
Emilia Perez | 3/1 | 25.00% |
Anora | 4/1 | 20.00% |
Conclave | 4/1 | 20.00% |
Wicked | 10/1 | 9.09% |
A Complete Unknown | 16/1 | 5.88% |
Dune: Part Two | 16/1 | 5.88% |
The Nickel Boys | 16/1 | 5.88% |
The Substance | 25/1 | 3.85% |
A Real Pain | 33/1 | 2.94% |
Sing Sing | 33/1 | 2.94% |
The End | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Blitz | 50/1 | 1.96% |
SNL: 1975 | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Saturday Night | 50/1 | 1.96% |
The Room Next Door | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Long Days Journey Into Night | 66/1 | 1.49% |
Queer | 66/1 | 1.49% |
The Piano Lesson | 66/1 | 1.49% |
The Seed of the Sacred Fig | 66/1 | 1.49% |
Gladiator 2 | 70/1 | 1.41% |
September 5 | 80/1 | 1.23% |
A Different Man | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Alien:Romulus | 100/1 | 0.99% |
All We Imagine as Light | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Coup De Chance | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Deadpool and Wolverine | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Flint Strong | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Juror No. 2 | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Maria | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Oh, Canada | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Small Things Like These | 100/1 | 0.99% |
The Life of Chuck | 100/1 | 0.99% |
The Long Game | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Will and Harper | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Bird | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Eleanor the Great | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Kinds of Kindness | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Megalopolis | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Nosferatu | 150/1 | 0.66% |
The Actor | 150/1 | 0.66% |
The Outrun | 150/1 | 0.66% |
A Quiet Place: Day One | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Challengers | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Civil War | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Fancy Dance | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Hard Truths | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Here | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Hit Man | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Housekeeping for Beginners | 200/1 | 0.50% |
I Saw the TV Glow | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Inside Out 2 | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Joker: Folie a Deux | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Kneecap | 200/1 | 0.50% |
LaRoy, Texas | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Moana 2 | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Nightbitch | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Parachute | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Parthenope | 200/1 | 0.50% |
The Apprentice | 200/1 | 0.50% |
The Beast | 200/1 | 0.50% |
The Bikeriders | 200/1 | 0.50% |
The Fall Guy | 200/1 | 0.50% |
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim | 200/1 | 0.50% |
We Live in Time | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Babygirl | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Back to Black | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Bob Marley: One Love | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Drive-Away Dolls | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Emmanuelle | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Firebrand | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Heretic | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Klara and the Sun | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Monkey Man | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Mufasa: The Lion King | 250/1 | 0.40% |
One Life | 250/1 | 0.40% |
The Book of Clarence | 250/1 | 0.40% |
The Wild Robot | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Twisters | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Wildcat | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Woman of the Hour | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Young Woman and the Sea | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Cuckoo | 500/1 | 0.20% |
Sting | 500/1 | 0.20% |
The Crow | 500/1 | 0.20% |
The First Omen | 500/1 | 0.20% |
As of 20 January 2025, according to the odds, the favourite to win Best Picture is The Brutalist, best priced at 5/6 with 10bet.
The odds mean that the probability for The Brutalist to win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars is 54.55%.
Year | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Director | Best Picture |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | Brendan Fraser (The Whale) | Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
2022 | Will Smith (King Richard) | Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) | Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) | CODA |
2021 | Anthony Hopkins (The Father) | Frances McDormand (Nomadland) | Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) | Nomadland |
2020 | Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) | Renée Zellweger (Judy) | Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) | Parasite |
2019 | Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) | Olivia Colman (The Favourite) | Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) | Green Book |
2018 | Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) | Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) | Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) | The Shape of Water |
2017 | Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) | Emma Stone (La La Land) | Damien Chazelle (La La Land) | Moonlight |
2016 | Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) | Brie Larson (Room) | Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant) | Spotlight |
2015 | Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) | Julianne Moore (Still Alice) | Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman) | Birdman |
2014 | Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) | Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) | Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity) | 12 Years a Slave |
2013 | Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) | Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) | Ang Lee (Life of Pi) | Argo |
2012 | Jean Dujardin (The Artist) | Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) | Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) | The Artist |
2011 | Colin Firth (The King's Speech) | Natalie Portman (Black Swan) | Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) | The King's Speech |
2010 | Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) | Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side) | Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) | The Hurt Locker |
2009 | Sean Penn (Milk) | Kate Winslet (The Reader) | Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) | Slumdog Millionaire |
2008 | Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) | Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) | Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) | No Country for Old Men |
2007 | Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland) | Helen Mirren (The Queen) | Martin Scorsese (The Departed) | The Departed |
2006 | Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote) | Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line) | Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain) | Crash |
2005 | Jamie Foxx (Ray) | Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) | Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby) | Million Dollar Baby |
2004 | Sean Penn (Mystic River) | Charlize Theron (Monster) | Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King) | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
2003 | Adrien Brody (The Pianist) | Nicole Kidman (The Hours) | Roman Polanski (The Pianist) | Chicago |
2002 | Denzel Washington (Training Day) | Halle Berry (Monster's Ball) | Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) | A Beautiful Mind |
2001 | Russell Crowe (Gladiator) | Julia Roberts (Erin Brockovich) | Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) | Gladiator |
2000 | Kevin Spacey (American Beauty) | Hilary Swank (Boys Don't Cry) | Sam Mendes (American Beauty) | American Beauty |