Below were the best Director odds before Sean Baker (Anora) won the 2025 award. We will update the odds when bookmakers start pricing potential winners for the 2026 Oscars.
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With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability of winning Best Director at the Oscars, according to the bookmakers.
| Actor | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Baker - Anora | 4/7 | 63.64% |
| Brady Corbet - The Brutalist | 13/8 | 38.10% |
| Jacques Audiard - Emilia Perez | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Coralie Fargeat - The Substance | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| James Mangold - A Complete Unknown | 33/1 | 2.94% |
As of 16 May 2026, according to the odds, the favourite to win Best Director is Sean Baker - Anora, best priced at 4/7 with William Hill.
The odds mean that the probability for Sean Baker - Anora to win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars is 63.64%.
| Year | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Director | Best Picture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) | Mikey Madison (Anora) | Sean Baker (Anora) | Anora |
| 2024 | Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) | Emma Stone (Poor Things) | Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) | Oppenheimer |
| 2023 | Brendan Fraser (The Whale) | Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
| 2022 | Will Smith (King Richard) | Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) | Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) | CODA |
| 2021 | Anthony Hopkins (The Father) | Frances McDormand (Nomadland) | Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) | Nomadland |
| 2020 | Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) | Renée Zellweger (Judy) | Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) | Parasite |
| 2019 | Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) | Olivia Colman (The Favourite) | Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) | Green Book |
| 2018 | Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) | Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) | Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) | The Shape of Water |
| 2017 | Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) | Emma Stone (La La Land) | Damien Chazelle (La La Land) | Moonlight |
| 2016 | Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) | Brie Larson (Room) | Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant) | Spotlight |
| 2015 | Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) | Julianne Moore (Still Alice) | Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman) | Birdman |
| 2014 | Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) | Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) | Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity) | 12 Years a Slave |
| 2013 | Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) | Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) | Ang Lee (Life of Pi) | Argo |
| 2012 | Jean Dujardin (The Artist) | Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) | Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) | The Artist |
| 2011 | Colin Firth (The King's Speech) | Natalie Portman (Black Swan) | Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) | The King's Speech |
| 2010 | Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) | Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side) | Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) | The Hurt Locker |
| 2009 | Sean Penn (Milk) | Kate Winslet (The Reader) | Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) | Slumdog Millionaire |
| 2008 | Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) | Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) | Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) | No Country for Old Men |
| 2007 | Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland) | Helen Mirren (The Queen) | Martin Scorsese (The Departed) | The Departed |
| 2006 | Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote) | Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line) | Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain) | Crash |
| 2005 | Jamie Foxx (Ray) | Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) | Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby) | Million Dollar Baby |
| 2004 | Sean Penn (Mystic River) | Charlize Theron (Monster) | Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King) | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
| 2003 | Adrien Brody (The Pianist) | Nicole Kidman (The Hours) | Roman Polanski (The Pianist) | Chicago |
| 2002 | Denzel Washington (Training Day) | Halle Berry (Monster's Ball) | Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) | A Beautiful Mind |
| 2001 | Russell Crowe (Gladiator) | Julia Roberts (Erin Brockovich) | Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) | Gladiator |
| 2000 | Kevin Spacey (American Beauty) | Hilary Swank (Boys Don't Cry) | Sam Mendes (American Beauty) | American Beauty |