With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability that each team will win Ligue 1, according to the bookmakers.
Team | Odds | Probability |
---|---|---|
PSG | 1/4 | 80.00% |
Marseille | 14/1 | 6.67% |
Monaco | 14/1 | 6.67% |
Lille | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Lens | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Lyon | 500/1 | 0.20% |
Auxerre | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
Nice | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
Reims | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
Brest | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
Rennes | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
Strasbourg | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
Toulouse | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
Nantes | 5000/1 | 0.02% |
Le Havre | 7500/1 | 0.01% |
Angers | 10000/1 | 0.01% |
Montpellier | 10000/1 | 0.01% |
St Etienne | 10000/1 | 0.01% |
As of 21 December 2024, according to the odds, the favourite to win Ligue 1 is PSG, best priced at 1/4 with bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for PSG to win is 80.00%.
Once again, Paris Saint-Germain are the heavy favourites to win Ligue 1 this season; we are not shocked by this. The Parisian club have dominated French football for what feels like an eternity, and this season could be no different - they are at odds of 1/3.
After losing Kylian Mbappe this summer, maybe you could question how PSG will fare but they still have a fantastic squad filled with youth talent. Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola are the stars of a fantastic front line and a midfield of Joao Neves, Vitinha and Warren Zaire-Emery is incredible and will be for years.
There are three potential contenders for the title - Marseille, Monaco and Lille.
Lille are probably the least likely contenders - they have recruited well but after losing Lenny Yoro and Paulo Fonseca, you have to question whether they can progress after two key departures. The odds represent this well, though, and you can get a price of 30/1 for them to win the league.
Monaco and Marseille represent the strongest competition to PSG in our eyes. However, you can argue that there are issues with both squads. Adi Hutter is a manager with a point to prove, and after slimming his squad this summer, there are grounds to progress, but whether their 16/1 price to win the league will be successful remains to be seen. The Red and Whites have made some shrewd signings focusing on young players but they have been forced to renovate their midfield.
Olympique Marseille probably pose the strongest threat. Roberto De Zerbi moved to the Olympiens this summer and has made plenty of additions, focusing on the front line. With no European football, De Zerbi and his squad will be able to fully focus on the league, which could prove advantageous - they are priced at 12/1.
Obviously, the prestige of winning the Ligue 1 is what the clubs have top of mind, but there are more benefits to finishing in first place. First of all, the champions get a bigger share of the TV rights revenue than the rest, as well as being seeded in the first pot for the Champions League league stage draw.
Paris Saint-Germain have been dominating French football in the last decade or so, finishing on top in 10 of the last 12 seasons. It remains to be seen if they can be challenged in the 2024/25 season, with Monaco and Lille both having their eye on the price. Marseille, having appointed Roberto De Zerbi as their new manager, are also a decent shout.