With the domestic calendar done and dusted, attention will rapidly turn to the World Cup. Here, we look at who will be the World Cup top scorer and secure the Golden Boot.
World Cup Top Scorer Odds
The World Cup top scorer odds are detailed below and were correct at the time of writing.
Who Will Win the World Cup Golden Boot?
It is hard enough to predict who will win the World Cup outright, without having to then settle on who will top score at the tournament.
You might be the best goalscorer on the planet but if you haven't got the right players around you, it means little. Equally, you might be less of an elite player but have a kinder run of fixtures.
There are so many variables, many of which we unpick below as we assess the players most likely to win the Golden Boot.
Who Will Win the World Cup Golden Boot?
Below we take a look at the candidates to win the World Cup Golden Boot:
Kylian Mbappe - 6/1
Kylian Mbappe signed off the last World Cup with a hat-trick in the final and the Golden Boot but, ultimately, it ended with a runner’s up medal. Now, France are among the bookies favourites to run deep in the tournament again and, like last time, Mbappe will be critical to their success.
He comes into the tournament in splendid form, too. A lot of narrative has been written as PSG have conquered Europe, whilst Real Madrid have struggled over the last couple of seasons but, Mbappe has been a marvel in Madrid.
He is a constant threat for Los Blancos and hit 42 goals across just 44 appearances for the Spanish giants this season.
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Harry Kane - 7/1
His Ballon d’Or chances might have dwindled with Bayern Munich failing to make the Champions League final, but Harry Kane has had another scintillating campaign for the Bavarians. He bagged 61 goals across all competitions, taking his tally to an insane 146 goals from 147 appearances since joining the club.
With Kane having already bagged himself the Golden Boot in 2018, he’ll be keen to continue his goalscoring prowess across the pond and, hopefully, see England to glory too.
The other thing that could favour Kane is that assists will come into the reckoning where a goalscoring tie occurs. He’s bagged 33 of them since heading to Germany, on top of the aforementioned goal output.
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Erling Haaland - 14/1
Erling Haaland scores goals in his sleep, or something like that anyway. His goalscoring touch simply cannot be questioned, as evidenced by the 38 he netted during the most recent campaign. Are odds of 14/1 good value for him to shoot his way to the Golden Boot in the World Cup, though? Arguably not.
Norway are a bit of a dark horse for many punters heading into the tournament, but there is a view that opposition will be thinking that if they stop Haaland, they largely stop Norway. It could impact how deep Norway run.
Such a thing is less of a concern for someone like Mbappe, for example, and without a run into the latter stages, Haaland would need a sensational goals per game output to be in the running for the Golden Boot.
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Lionel Messi - 14/1
There is no question that Lionel Messi will attract a lot of money in the Golden Boot betting, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll go on to have a glittering World Cup campaign.
The near 39-year-old was lauded for his displays in 2022, as Argentina won the trophy, which included him finishing second to Mbappe in the top scoring charts.
It is different now, though. Admittedly, the group Argentina find themselves in is fairly kind, but with Messi four years older and reportedly coming into the competition carrying what has been described as “muscle fatigue”, it is hard to see him lighting things up in quite the same way – even if his genius is undeniable – particularly in the first couple of games, where the opposition is “easier”.
Cristiano Ronaldo - 22/1
We talk of undeniable genius and, like magic, Cristiano Ronaldo features next on our list of the Golden Boot winner odds. The 41-year-old Portuguese star heads to the World Cup desperate to leave his mark on the global stage, and there is a significant chance he adds a couple of goals to his ever-growing tally, as he chases down 1,000.
If he’s going to earn the Golden Boot, you feel he’ll need to start like a house on fire with Portugal afforded one of the kinder groups. Realistically, however, he isn’t going to score enough. There are two reasons for that.
Firstly, Portugal don’t really have a “blow you away” style of play and, secondly, there is a big question mark as to whether Ronaldo will have his minutes managed. The previous European Championships would suggest not but, equally, he has completed 90 minutes in only one of his last six games for Portugal. Again, he is also 41!
Michael Olise - 45/1
There are plenty of names that feature in the Golden Boot betting odds ahead of the 2026 World Cup. One we’re picking out from further down the pecking order is Michael Olise of France. We acknowledge it is a massive longshot, but it might just represent good value for a sneaky punt.
The Bayern Munich man has just turned in the season of his life, where he scored 22 goals and weighed in with a stunning 31 assists. With France likely to play a lot of games, and other players in the French XI likely to draw multiple defenders towards them, could Olise be the beneficiary?
He’s certainly been getting a lot of minutes under Didier Deschamps of late, and those assist numbers could come in handy too.
Ashley, an Ipswich Town fan, is an experienced content writer in the sports & betting space, who also has an extensive background in data analytics. Those skills combine here to allow for unique angles to be taken across a host of topics.