Sheffield United vs. Sunderland: Championship Play-Off Final Tips

It all comes down to this: Sheffield United and Sunderland both have one hand on a ticket to the Premier League. The Championship play-off final is here, so let's just dive straight in.

Ben's Bets for Sheffield United vs. Sunderland

At the time of writing this, the lineups were not available to us, so I have tried to make some assumptions about the lineup, whilst only tipping players I think will start. It is worth stating here that I would not advise placing any bets until the lineups are out for both teams.

So, without further ado, let's dive into my reasoning.

Both Teams to Be Carded 2+ Times

In the past 10 play-off finals, this selection has landed in six of the games, and touching Evens, I'm going to be on board here.

Looking at Sunderland's play-off games, they got a staggering 11 cards in 200 minutes of football, which is crazy, and I think they could once again be very aggressive here. If things are going in their favour, they are no strangers to a tactical foul, put it that way.

Furthermore, Regis Le Bris' team averaged the highest amount of cards against them in the Championship, coming in at 2.38 per game, whilst Sheffield United's average sits at a nice 1.96. In other words, it points in our favour.

Draw at Half Time

Whilst this only landed in one of the games between the two this season, I am taking a chance on the half-time result being a draw. I can't see any time really trying to attack massively from the off, and with the added pressure of a final, we could see quite a low-paced first half.

Above Evens, this stands out as a great pick in my eyes, with both teams only losing less than 20% of their first halves this season. Furthermore, their half-time draw percentage stands out at 40%.

Over 1.5 Goals in Second Half

This certainly feels like a bit of a strange pick, considering in the games earlier this season, there was only one goal in the second half. However, a play-off final will always be slightly more cagey in the first period, so I don't think we'll see either team flying out of the blocks.

Sunderland have scored a second-half goal in 50% of their games this season, whilst Sheffield United look slightly more favourable at a 60% average. Furthermore, the Black Cats have conceded a second-half goal in almost 50% of their games this season, including both play-off games.

Finally, in their respective play-off semi-finals, this landed in three of four games. So, I think we could be in for an exciting second half.

Gustavo Hamer to Score or Assist

In the first game of Sheffield United's play-off run, I took Gus Hamer to get a goal or assist, which he was unfortunate not to do, at least in my eyes. In the second leg, the Dutchman scored, but my pick for Kieffer Moore to grab a goal or assist landed.

Now that I've tooted my own horn a little, I'm going for a second bite at the cherry. So, we're again going with Hamer to score or assist here.

In the games against Sunderland this season, the midfielder made five key passes, whilst also taking nine shots, though these were mainly outside of the box (which could make an interesting selection, if you wish to make your own picks).

Finally, he has experience in big moments at Wembley, scoring Coventry's only goal in the 2023 play-off final.

Dennis Cirkin to be Carded

My final pick is for Dennis Cirkin to be carded, which I think is a steal at over 2/1 with some bookies currently. The left-back showed that he is a bit of a disciplinary menace in the semi-finals, being booked in both games, and I think that will continue.

In both 'regular' games this season, the Blades have placed a large focus on attacking down the right side, which has been a trend this season. Across their games, 40% of their attacks have come down the right, so Cirkin could be targeted.

Callum O'Hare seems like a potential candidate to start on the right, and he has drawn 57 fouls this season, whilst Cirkin has averaged 1.5 fouls made himself. With the left-back also winning a fair few fouls himself, he could be involved in a spat, perhaps, which could see him booked.

At 12/5, I'm looking very firmly at this pick, indeed.