Bristol City vs. Sheffield United: Championship 2024-25 Play-Offs Tips

The start of the EFL play-offs are here, and we start with Sheffield United travelling to Ashton Gate for the first leg of their semi-final.

Play-offs are extremely difficult to call, so we will be pointing out a few selections at a higher price than what we normally would. Nevertheless, that does not mean that we are any less confident in what we put forward - there is just a higher level of risk with them.

Ben's Bets for Bristol City vs. Sheffield United

At the time of writing this, the lineups were not available to us, so I have tried to make some assumptions about the lineup, whilst only tipping players I think will start. It is worth stating here that I would not advise placing any bets until the lineups are out for both teams.

Also, I'd like to say again that these selections are placed with a little more risk. The first leg of a play-off game is extremely difficult to call, both in terms of the game itself and the result, but we've still gone into the stats and trends.

So, without further ado, let's dive into my reasoning.

Nahki Wells to have 1+ Shot on Target

My first pick of this game comes in at 21/20, so just over Evens, and I'm rather surprised at this price I must admit. The Bermudan is Bristol City's starting striker, and elsewhere, he is priced as low as 4/6 for a shot on target - so I think this is a price to take advantage of.

Averaging 1.13 shots on target per game this season, I think he is a pretty good bet for another in this game here, more so as the Robins average almost five shots on target per game at Ashton Gate.

This feels like a bit of a mistake on the pricing, so I'm looking to take advantage here.

⭐️ Both Teams to Score

This again feels like it might be slightly overpriced as a selection, and I'm going to try and take advantage of that.

At Ashton Gate, both teams have scored in 61% of games this season - something which was the case earlier this year when these two faced off - and Sheffield United's 43% BTTS percentage away from home also helps this.

Furthermore, the Robins are 11 games without a clean sheet, whilst scoring in 13 of their previous games - including against Sheffield United. On the other hand, the Blades have also scored in 13 of their previous 15 - again, including against City - and conceded in 9 of these games.

So, I would probably say this is my banker in this game.

Sheffield United to Win

There is certainly quite an element of risk to this pick, however, I think this could be a game where Sheffield United snatch and try hold on at Bramall Lane for the second leg.

In their previous 10 meetings at Ashton Gate, the Blades have only lost twice, whilst winning six. To further that, they won their last two trips to Bristol whilst drawing in the third most recent game, which took place in April 2022.

Picking winners in a first leg is certainly bold, especially with Sheffield United's recent form, but I think they will tap into their previous best in the play-offs.

Gustavo Hamer to Score or Assist

Now this is a pick which I really like at the price of around 2/1. With 16 contributions this season, Hamer has probably been the Blades' biggest weapon, and I think he could have a big say in this tie.

In his past four games, he's got two assists and a goal, tapping into form when he's been needed, and showing that he's a threat himself as well as being a great creator. With just under a shot on target per game, I expect him to have a chance in this fixture, however, he also makes two key passes per game, which lines up for our assist.

Furthermore, in Coventry City's play-off run, he scored twice in the three games, proving he is capable of shining on the big stage when it matters. Again, I think this is a really generous price.

Vinicius Souza to be Carded

My final pick is for Vini Souza to be shown a card, something which I think has a big chance here, and the odds look really tasty at the 3/1 mark.

In the Championship, Souza made the sixth most amount of fouls this season with 64 in 35, however, it averages at just over two per game. Furthermore, Bristol City average around two cards against them per game, which bodes well.

Additionally, in the game at Ashton Gate earlier this season, he made two fouls, whilst his midfield partner made another. Then, in the return game, the midfield duo made another three fouls (though Souza did not start).

City draw fouls for fun in the midfield and I think Souza could be caught out.