SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa - Europa League Final Tips

On Wednesday night, Freiburg will face Aston Villa in the Europa League final and there is plenty of opportunity for value.

The bookmakers have priced it up as a game where the Villains should be winning and they may well, but there is little value in this market and we believe there is an opportunity.

Let's dive into our tips for this game.

SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa: Ben's Bets and Expected XIs

At the time of writing this, the lineups were not available to us, so I have tried to make some assumptions about the lineup, whilst only tipping players I think will start. It is worth stating here that I would not advise placing any bets until the lineups are out for both teams.

I've gone for some bigger prices and one smaller price to balance things out a little bit. There's a good amount of value on offer and I think this can be taken advantage of.

Now, without further ado, let's dive into my reasoning.

Aston Villa Corner Handicap -1.5 - 20/23

With Villa expected to win here, I think they will be the ones piling on pressure, having shots on goal and just generally being on top. With the corner markets offering a little value, I've taken to the handicaps here.

In seven of their last 10 games, Freiburg have had two or more corners less than their opponents and this should continue here, especially considering Villa have had the same stat in six of their last 10.

Ollie Watkins to Score or Assist - 1/1

My first selection with Ollie Watkins is for him to score or assist. Now, the Englishman is in fine form currently and I think it'll continue into this game.

With six goal contributions in his last three games, he is on fire currently and if Villa are to become European champions I believe he'll have a large part to play in it.

1/1 feels like a gift from Paddy Power.

Ollie Watkins over 17.5 passes + Over 0.5 Offsides for Aston Villa - 23/20

Yes, I understand this is rogue. However, I want to collect a bit of value from two things which I think are overpriced. Starting with the Watkins passes, in the Premier League, he has averaged 15.3 passes per game. Whereas in the Europa League, that number rises to 17.85, with him having 85 in his last five games.

In terms of the offsides, Freiburg have seen their opposition get 10 offsides in their last seven games and whilst Villa are certainly better at holding a line than falling for it themselves, they have still averaged one per game.

Both are a little overpriced in my eyes and I think we could make some money there.

Jan-Niklas Beste to Make 2+ Fouls - 9/5

I expect a lot of Aston Villa's attacks to come down the left side on Wednesday night and this would see Beste tasked with defensive duties and perhaps more than he'd like.

Indeed, the German winger has made six fouls in his last four games and with Morgan Rogers and Emi Buendia averaging around 3.7 fouls won per game, this could be a great price.

Igor Matanovic to have 1+ Headed Shot on Target - 11/4

Finally, I wanted to take a look at the shot on target market and there were no prices of real interest. However, when looking at the header market, this price stuck out.

In his past three games, Matanovic has had a header on target in each. In terms of just headed shots, the 23-year-old has averaged 0.90 per game and this could offer us a great price.

Considering Freiburg's regular crosses this season - 20 in their last five games - he should be there to meet at least one.

Predicted SC Freiburg XI vs. Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Atubolu; Kübler, Ginter, Lienhart, Treu; Eggestein, Manzambi; Beste, Höler, Grifo; Matanović.

Predicted Aston Villa XI vs. SC Freiburg (4-2-3-1): Martínez; Cash, Konsa, Pau Torres, Digne; Lindelöf, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Buendía; Watkins.