Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 5: Betting Tips and Insight

Fantasy Premier League is one of the biggest football games on the planet, but it can also be a great way to bet, and vice versa. So, we wanted to take a look at some fixtures and also rankings.

So, below you can find a preview of the weekend's fixtures, players 'most likely' to score, to assist and also make saves. Let's dive into it.

Fixture Ranking

It's best to start with the fixtures, and this weekend's are as follows:

• Liverpool vs Everton
• Brighton vs Spurs
• Burnley vs Nott'm Forest
• West Ham vs Crystal Palace
• Wolves vs Leeds
• Man Utd vs Chelsea
• Fulham vs Brentford
• Bournemouth vs Newcastle
• Sunderland vs Aston Villa
• Arsenal vs Man City

For what it is worth, we have also got our Super Six predictions ready, if you would like some further insight into the games. However, this is going to be solely based on statistics, rather than personal predictions, really.

From the Official Fantasy Premier League rankings, the following teams have the easiest fixtures:

• Aston Villa (vs. Sunderland, away)
• Crystal Palace (vs. West Ham United, home)
• Liverpool (vs. Everton, home)
• Nottingham Forest (vs. Burnley, away)
• Wolverhampton Wanderers (vs. Leeds, home)

Using the odds from the bookmakers, we can find out the 'implied probability' of different results too, so according to the bookies, we have the following 'most likely' results:

• Liverpool (H) to BEAT Everton - 19/40 (67.80% probability)
• Arsenal (H) to BEAT Manchester City - 19/20 (51.28% probability)
• Fulham (H) to BEAT Brentford - 21/20 (48.78% probability)
• Aston Villa (A) to BEAT Sunderland - 23/20 (46.51% probability)
• Nottingham Forest (A) to BEAT Burnley - 5/4 (44.44% probability)

Outcome

By this logic, we probably want to be using a few Liverpool players against Everton, considering the home advantage. However, whether there is much value in backing them is certainly a bit debatable.

Arsenal against Manchester City, despite seemingly being a high probability from the bookmakers, is rated as a 4-difficulty fixture on the FPL site. So again, it is probably not worth backing this.

That leaves two standout fixtures for us to target. Nottingham Forest to beat relegation favourites Burnley away from home, and Aston Villa to beat Sunderland away from home.

The implied probabilities are both strong, whilst their difficulty ranking on FPL is strong, both at two apiece.

So, it would make sense to back both to win. As well as including their players in your teams for this weekend's fixtures.

Betting recommendations: Aston Villa to BEAT Sunderland + Nottingham Forest to BEAT Burnley.

FPL Clubs to target: AVL, NFO, perhaps FUL.

Clean Sheet Rankings

Whilst a lot of this section is probably similar to the actual fixture rankings, here we're going to be looking at the clubs most likely to keep Clean Sheets. As you would expect, many of the 'easier' fixtures also have lower Clean Sheet Odds.

So, taking the outcome from 'Exact' goals from all 10 Premier League games this weekend, we have found the highest and lowest odds.

In terms of most likely to keep a clean sheet, that would be Liverpool, with odds of 13/10. Even if they only have a 50% Clean Sheet record so far this season. Given it is a derby too, stats may go out of the window a little.

Aston Villa then follow next, with odds of 13/8. Like the Reds, they have a Clean Sheet record of only 50%, whilst their opponents, Sunderland, have a scoring rate of 50% so far. So this may not be a bad option.

Fulham then follow in third with odds of 7/4, whilst Arsenal and Nottingham Forest round up the top five.

In terms of teams least likely to keep a clean sheet, Everton sit at the bottom, sitting at 7/1 to keep their Merseyside rivals at bay, whilst Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Brentford follow on.

Outcome

It is a little bit pointless backing the Premier League title favourites Liverpool to win to Nil against Everton, given you do not actually get better odds than solely backing Everton not to score.

However, if you wanted to add Aston Villa to win to Nil against Sunderland, your odds would increase rather nicely to 5/2 from just above Evens.

If you want a bigger price bet, Arsenal to beat Manchester City to Nil is 4.43 on 10Bet, which could be a nice shout.

FPL Clubs to target: LIV, AVL, FUL, ARS, NFO

Scorer and Assist Bets

It is probably right for this bit to come last, simply based on the fact that we can take the odds from the results and also the list of Clean Sheet odds. So, we're going to target those teams that are seemingly a little more vulnerable.

However, with the odds at the top being quite short, we have a decently extended list of teams that could concede this week. So, we'll start there, with the team's expectancy for a clean sheet following:

Wolves Clean Sheet – 33.3% (2/1)

Crystal Palace Clean Sheet – 32.3% (21/10)

Leeds Clean Sheet – 32.3% (21/10)

West Ham Clean Sheet – 27.8% (13/5)

Bournemouth Clean Sheet – 27.8% (13/5)

Brighton Clean Sheet – 26.7% (11/4)

Newcastle Clean Sheet – 26.7% (11/4)

Sunderland Clean Sheet – 26.7% (11/4)

Chelsea Clean Sheet – 25.0% (3/1)

Burnley Clean Sheet – 23.1% (10/3)

Brentford Clean Sheet – 23.1% (10/3)

Manchester United Clean Sheet – 22.2% (7/2)

Tottenham Clean Sheet – 22.2% (7/2)

Manchester City Clean Sheet – 20.0% (4/1)

Everton Clean Sheet – 12.5% (7/1)

From this, we can see that there is a 66.7% chance that Leeds United score vs. Wolves, whilst Liverpool have a 87.5% chance of scoring against Everton. In other words, there are several fixtures to target.

After going through the odds of each player, though, he is the most likely 10 players to score or assist this weekend.

1. Mo Salah vs Everton - 8/15 (65.2%)
2. Alexander Isak vs. Everton - 4/5 (55.6%)
3. Viktor Gyökeres vs. Manchester City - 41/50 (54.9%)
4. Hugo Ekitike vs. Everton - 17/20 (54.1%)
5. Matheus Cunha vs. Chelsea - 11/10 (47.6%)
6. Cole Palmer vs. Manchester United - 11/10 (47.6%)
7. Joao Pedro vs. Manchester United - 11/10 (47.6%)
8. Ollie Watkins vs. Sunderland - 11/10 (47.6%)
9. Jean Phillipe Mateta vs. West Ham United - 6/5 (45.5%)
10. Bruno Fernandes vs. Chelsea - 6/5 (45.5%)

Outcome

Backing any of the Liverpool players to score or assist against Everton could offer us some nice returns and could be well worth targeting. However, we must wait for the lineups here to really take any guesses.

Elsewhere, the odds of Ollie Watkins scoring or assisting look quite a nice price, as does Jean Phillipe Mateta's against West Ham United, more so as he is on penalties.

FPL PLAYERS to target: Salah, Isak, Gyokeres, Ekitike, Watkins, Mateta

FPL PLAYERS to avoid: MUN + CHE DEFENDERS