Exits, Points Deductions and Relegation - Bookmakers React to Man City News
After the news broke about Manchester City, bookmakers went into a frenzy and some very interesting markets have been priced up.
Let's take a look at the prices and see if there is any/much value.
Manchester City Found Guilty of Premier League Charges
In recent years, the number 115 has hung over Manchester City and English football like a balloon waiting to burst. It seemed inevitable that it eventually would and things would come crashing down and, well, we're there.
Indeed, David Ornstein first reported that City had been found guilty of 114 of the 115 charges. Then, the Premier League followed that up, stating that the club were guilty 'of all charges related to serious breaches of the Premier League’s financial rules over a nine-season period'.
A pretty difficult one to fight your way out of and the damage has already been done. Now, the fallout has begun and clubs, the FA and even players are looking at action that will be taken against the Citizens after their years of alleged cheating.
Of course, where we're interested here, though, is the bookmakers' reaction. Earlier this season, they were around the 14/1 mark to go down, if not higher. After the initial report of them being found guilty, the price collapsed and they were 6/1, 5/1 and 4/1.
With the official statement from the Premier League, though, their price has now settled and they're 13/8 to go down with Bet365, according to the latest Premier League relegation odds. It means there's a 38% of them heading to the Championship.
If we're being completely honest too, it wouldn't be a surprise if that price were to further collapse. However, at that price, it just doesn't represent any value for us. You're taking over Evens for a decision which could take a while to arrive and we don't know how severe the punishment will be.
It's a case which we've never seen in England and whilst precedent would suggest that a relegation-worthy points deduction should be expected, it may not be the case.
People to Leave Manchester City?
With the situation then, there are plenty of rumours about players leaving the club.
There has always been talk about Erling Haaland and his future, and he was 4/1 to go to Real Madrid next. Since the news, though, his odds have dropped dramatically. Paddy Power have him at 2/1 to leave permanently next summer or 10/1 to leave in January.
He's not the only one too; Phil Foden is 3/1 to leave next summer or 16/1 in January, whilst Enzo Maresca to depart before the end of May is 10/3.
It's worth noting that the bookmakers aren't so certain about Maresca leaving the club shortly, with Coral and its sister sites pricing him at 50/1 to be the next Premier League manager to leave his post.
Manchester City Deduction Specials
As you'd expect, one bookmaker has gone wild on the specials, and it's been Paddy Power. At the time of writing, they have several points and title specials.
Points Deduction in 2027/28 - 11/8
A points deduction feels inevitable really, especially when you look at other cases in the Premier League. Both the league and the FA are not afraid to hand out deductions for financial problems, so it wouldn't be a huge shocker.
It's just a case of when it would be, which is the kicker. However, a multi-year points deduction may be possible too, so we'll see.
Points Deduction in 2026/27 - 15/8
Higher odds for a points deduction this season feels a little strange, but again, this isn't a case we've seen in the Premier League before and we're not talking about one charge. Instead, it's 114 and then there's the appeal process, too.
As much as teams may see it as unfair, there is certainly a chance that City go unpunished this year, whilst a decision is worked out.
1+ Title to be Stripped - 4/1
This is really interesting, because there have been cases of teams losing their titles before - most notoriously Juventus in the mid-to-late 2000s. However, we've never seen it in England. At the same time, though, we've never seen a case like this.
At 4/1, you're relying on an unprecedented action to take place and that just doesn't feel like good enough odds for me. If you're a rival fan, surely the joy of seeing it happen would be enough without a winning bet slip...
Playing in League One in 28/29 - 25/1
Playing in League One would mean back-to-back relegations and it's difficult to really suggest that this will be the case. It would mean the FA/EFL would have to agree with the points deductions and that may be hard to see happening.
You're also relying on a lot of quality leaving, and for 25/1, there are better bets. Especially given you're going to be waiting two years for a payout. I'd skip this one.
Ben is an accredited football journalist who follows anything from League One to Serie A, also working for the likes of SempreMilan and Total Italian Football. As an avid punter, he has become the master tester at BettingLounge, refusing to take bookies by their words when it comes to withdrawal times and much more.