Politics
Next Conservative Leader Odds: After Kemi Badenoch
ExpandNext Permanent Tory Leader Odds After Kemi Badenoch
Below are betting odds for the top contenders to be the next permanent Conservative leader after Kemi Badenoch.
James Cleverly Compare odds Show less
Bet365 
Coral 
Ladbrokes 
Betfred 
Spreadex 
William Hill 
BetVictor 
BetMGM 
Virgin Bet Katie Lam Compare odds Show less
Nick Timothy Compare odds Show less
Boris Johnson Compare odds Show less
Claire Coutinho Compare odds Show less
Rupert Lowe Compare odds Show less
Chris Philp Compare odds Show less
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Tom Tugendhat Compare odds Show less
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The Favourites To Be The Next Permanent Tory Leader After Kemi Badenoch
- James Cleverly with odds 4/1 on Bet365
- Katie Lam with odds 7/1 on Coral
- Nick Timothy with odds 14/1 on William Hill
- Boris Johnson with odds 20/1 on Coral
- Claire Coutinho with odds 20/1 on BetMGM
Probability to be the Next Conservative Leader
With the betting odds, we can easily calculate the probability for each candidate to be the next leader of the Conservative party, according to the bookmakers.
| Candidates | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| James Cleverly | 4/1 | 20.00% |
| Katie Lam | 7/1 | 12.50% |
| Nick Timothy | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Boris Johnson | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Claire Coutinho | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Rupert Lowe | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Chris Philp | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Jeremy Hunt | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Mike Wood | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Tom Tugendhat | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Nigel Farage | 30/1 | 3.23% |
| Alex Burghart | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Andrew Griffith | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Laura Trott | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Mel Stride | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Robert Jenrick | 35/1 | 2.78% |
| Kevin Hollinrake | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Penny Mordaunt | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| James Cartlidge | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Oliver Dowden | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Priti Patel | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Victoria Atkins | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| David Davis | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| David Frost | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Rishi Sunak | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Steve Barclay | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Alan Mak | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alberto Costa | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alec Shelbrooke | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alicia Kearns | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alison Griffiths | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Bowie | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Murrison | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Rosindell | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Snowden | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Aphra Brandreth | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ashley Fox | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ben Obese-Jecty | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ben Spencer | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Blake Stephenson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Bob Blackman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Bradley Thomas | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Caroline Dinenage | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Caroline Johnson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Charlie Dewhirst | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Christopher Chope | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Danny Kruger | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Cameron | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Mundell | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Reed | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Simmonds | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Edward Argar | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Esther McVey | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Gagan Mohindra | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Gareth Bacon | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Gareth Davies | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| George Freeman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Graham Stuart | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Greg Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Greg Stafford | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Harriet Cross | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Harriett Baldwin | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Helen Grant | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jack Rankin | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| James Wild | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jeremy Wright | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jerome Mayhew | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jesse Norman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Joe Robertson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| John Cooper | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| John Glen | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| John Hayes | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| John Lamont | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Joy Morrissey | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Julia Lopez | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Julian Lewis | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Julian Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Karen Bradley | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kieran Mullan | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kit Malthouse | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Lewis Cocking | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Lincoln Jopp | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Louie French | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Luke Evans | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Mark Garnier | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Mark Harper | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Mark Pritchard | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Martin Vickers | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Matt Vickers | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Mims Davies | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Neil Hudson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Neil OBrien | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Neil Shastri-Hurst | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Nigel Huddleston | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Nus Ghani | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Patrick Spencer | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Paul Holmes | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Peter Bedford | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Peter Fortune | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rebecca Harris | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rebecca Paul | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rebecca Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Richard Fuller | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Robbie Moore | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Roger Gale | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Saqib Bhatti | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Sarah Bool | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Shivani Raja | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Simon Hoare | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Stuart Anderson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Stuart Andrew | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Suella Braverman | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Andrew Mitchell | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Caroline Nokes | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Damian Hinds | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Desmond Swayne | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Helen Whately | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Iain Duncan Smith | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Richard Holden | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Andy Street | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Ben Houchen | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Bernard Jenkin | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Edward Leigh | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Geoffrey Cox | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| John Whittingdale | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Lee Anderson | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Gavin Williamson | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Mark Francois | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Marc Francois | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Chip Chapman | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| George Galloway | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Liz Truss | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Tim Farron | 500/1 | 0.20% |
Who is the Favourite to Be the Tory Leader After Kemi Badenoch?
As of 15 February 2026, according to the odds, the favourite to be the next Tory leader is James Cleverly, best priced at 4/1 with Bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for James Cleverly to be the next Conservative leader is 20.00%.
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