Below are betting odds for the top contenders to be the next permanent Conservative leader after Kemi Badenoch.
With the betting odds, we can easily calculate the probability for each candidate to be the next leader of the Conservative party, according to the bookmakers.
| Candidates | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| James Cleverly | 4/1 | 20.00% |
| Katie Lam | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Boris Johnson | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Claire Coutinho | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Robert Jenrick | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Rupert Lowe | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Jeremy Hunt | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Mike Wood | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Tom Tugendhat | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Chris Philp | 30/1 | 3.23% |
| Nigel Farage | 30/1 | 3.23% |
| Alex Burghart | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Nick Timothy | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Laura Trott | 35/1 | 2.78% |
| Mel Stride | 35/1 | 2.78% |
| Andrew Griffith | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Kevin Hollinrake | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Penny Mordaunt | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| James Cartlidge | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Oliver Dowden | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Priti Patel | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| Suella Braverman | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Victoria Atkins | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| David Davis | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| David Frost | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Steve Barclay | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Alan Mak | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alberto Costa | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alec Shelbrooke | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alicia Kearns | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alison Griffiths | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Bowie | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Murrison | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Rosindell | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Snowden | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Aphra Brandreth | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ashley Fox | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ben Obese-Jecty | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ben Spencer | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Blake Stephenson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Bob Blackman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Bradley Thomas | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Caroline Dinenage | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Caroline Johnson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Charlie Dewhirst | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Christopher Chope | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Danny Kruger | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Cameron | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Mundell | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Reed | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Simmonds | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Edward Argar | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Esther McVey | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Gagan Mohindra | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Gareth Bacon | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Gareth Davies | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| George Freeman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Graham Stuart | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Greg Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Greg Stafford | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Harriet Cross | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Harriett Baldwin | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Helen Grant | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jack Rankin | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| James Wild | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jeremy Wright | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jerome Mayhew | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jesse Norman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Joe Robertson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| John Cooper | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| John Glen | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| John Hayes | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| John Lamont | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Joy Morrissey | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Julia Lopez | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Julian Lewis | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Julian Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Karen Bradley | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kieran Mullan | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kit Malthouse | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Lewis Cocking | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Lincoln Jopp | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Louie French | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Luke Evans | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Mark Garnier | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Mark Pritchard | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Martin Vickers | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Matt Vickers | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Mims Davies | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Neil Hudson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Neil OBrien | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Neil Shastri-Hurst | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Nigel Huddleston | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Nus Ghani | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Patrick Spencer | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Paul Holmes | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Peter Bedford | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Peter Fortune | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rebecca Harris | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rebecca Paul | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rebecca Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Richard Fuller | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rishi Sunak | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Robbie Moore | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Roger Gale | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Saqib Bhatti | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Sarah Bool | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Shivani Raja | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Simon Hoare | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Stuart Anderson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Stuart Andrew | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Wendy Morton | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Mitchell | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Caroline Nokes | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Damian Hinds | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Desmond Swayne | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Helen Whately | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Iain Duncan Smith | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Richard Holden | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Andy Street | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Mark Harper | 175/1 | 0.57% |
| Bernard Jenkin | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Edward Leigh | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Geoffrey Cox | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| John Whittingdale | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Lee Anderson | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Gavin Williamson | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Mark Francois | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Ben Houchen | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Marc Francois | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Chip Chapman | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| George Galloway | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Liz Truss | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Tim Farron | 500/1 | 0.20% |
As of 26 January 2026, according to the odds, the favourite to be the next Tory leader is James Cleverly, best priced at 4/1 with William Hill.
The odds mean that the probability for James Cleverly to be the next Conservative leader is 20.00%.