Politics
Next Conservative Leader Odds: After Kemi Badenoch
ExpandNext Permanent Tory Leader Odds After Kemi Badenoch
Below are betting odds for the top contenders to be the next permanent Conservative leader after Kemi Badenoch.
Robert Jenrick Compare odds Show less
Coral 
Ladbrokes 
Betfred 
bet365 
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BetMGM James Cleverly Compare odds Show less
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The Favourites To Be The Next Permanent Tory Leader After Kemi Badenoch
- Robert Jenrick with odds 11/8 on Coral
- James Cleverly with odds 5/1 on Coral
- Boris Johnson with odds 10/1 on Coral
- Nigel Farage with odds 16/1 on bet365
- Nick Timothy with odds 20/1 on William Hill
Probability to be the Next Conservative Leader
With the betting odds, we can easily calculate the probability for each candidate to be the next leader of the Conservative party, according to the bookmakers.
| Candidates | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Robert Jenrick | 11/8 | 42.11% |
| James Cleverly | 5/1 | 16.67% |
| Boris Johnson | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Nigel Farage | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Nick Timothy | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Claire Coutinho | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Mike Wood | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Chris Philp | 28/1 | 3.45% |
| Alex Burghart | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Danny Kruger | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Katie Lam | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Laura Trott | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Mel Stride | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Tom Tugendhat | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Victoria Atkins | 35/1 | 2.78% |
| Jeremy Hunt | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Suella Braverman | 45/1 | 2.17% |
| David Frost | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Oliver Dowden | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Priti Patel | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Ben Spencer | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| Mark Harper | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| Rishi Sunak | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| Ben Houchen | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| David Davis | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Richard Holden | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Steve Barclay | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Alan Mak | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alberto Costa | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alec Shelbrooke | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alicia Kearns | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Alison Griffiths | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Bowie | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Murrison | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Snowden | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Aphra Brandreth | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ashley Fox | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ben Obese-Jecty | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Blake Stephenson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Bob Blackman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Bradley Thomas | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Caroline Dinenage | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Caroline Johnson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Charlie Dewhirst | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Cameron | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Mundell | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Reed | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| David Simmonds | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Edward Argar | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Esther McVey | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Gagan Mohindra | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Gareth Bacon | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Gareth Davies | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| George Freeman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Graham Stuart | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Greg Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Greg Stafford | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Harriet Cross | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Harriett Baldwin | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Helen Grant | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Iain Duncan Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jack Rankin | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| James Cartlidge | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| James Wild | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jeremy Wright | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jerome Mayhew | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jesse Norman | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Joe Robertson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| John Cooper | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Joy Morrissey | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Karen Bradley | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kevin Hollinrake | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kieran Mullan | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kit Malthouse | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Lewis Cocking | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Lincoln Jopp | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Louie French | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Luke Evans | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Mark Garnier | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Mark Pritchard | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Matt Vickers | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Mims Davies | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Neil Hudson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Neil O'Brien | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Neil Shastri-Hurst | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Nigel Huddleston | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Nus Ghani | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Patrick Spencer | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Paul Holmes | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Peter Bedford | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Peter Fortune | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rebecca Harris | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rebecca Paul | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rebecca Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Richard Fuller | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Robbie Moore | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Roger Gale | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Saqib Bhatti | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Sarah Bool | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Shivani Raja | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Stuart Anderson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Stuart Andrew | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Wendy Morton | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Andrew Mitchell | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Caroline Nokes | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Desmond Swayne | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Helen Whately | 150/1 | 0.66% |
| Bernard Jenkin | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Edward Leigh | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Gavin Williamson | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Geoffrey Cox | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Who is the Favourite to Be the Tory Leader After Kemi Badenoch?
As of 16 August 2025, according to the odds, the favourite to be the next Tory leader is Robert Jenrick, best priced at 11/8 with Coral.
The odds mean that the probability for Robert Jenrick to be the next Conservative leader is 42.11%.
More British Politics Odds
Steven Hubbard
Last updated: 19/06/2025
Steven is an experienced iGaming content writer who has been working in the industry since 2018. He is passionate about sports betting and enjoys writing about all aspects of the industry, including bookmaker reviews, betting tips and strategies, and news and analysis.
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