With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability that each team will be relegated from La Liga, according to the bookmakers.
Team | Odds | Probability |
---|---|---|
Valladolid | 1/6 | 85.71% |
Espanyol | 10/11 | 52.38% |
Valencia | 11/8 | 42.11% |
Leganes | 13/8 | 38.10% |
Alaves | 5/2 | 28.57% |
Las Palmas | 7/2 | 22.22% |
Getafe | 4/1 | 20.00% |
Rayo Vallecano | 12/1 | 7.69% |
Sevilla | 16/1 | 5.88% |
Celta Vigo | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Girona | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Osasuna | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Real Betis | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Real Mallorca | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Real Sociedad | 200/1 | 0.50% |
Athletic Bilbao | 500/1 | 0.20% |
Villarreal | 500/1 | 0.20% |
Atletico Madrid | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
Real Madrid | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
Barcelona | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
As of 21 December 2024, according to the odds, the favourite to be relegated from La Liga is Valladolid, best priced at 1/6 with bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for Valladolid to be relegated is 85.71%.
The La Liga relegation battle seems quite strange to call, and there are four teams who we think could really struggle at the bottom end of the table in the upcoming season.
I don't think we can highlight a dead certain, but if we had to pick one team that is more destined for the drop than the others, we'd have to pick Leganes. Last season was their first back in the top half of the Segunda Division, and it ended with them winning the League, but whether they have enough to maintain a position in La Liga is difficult to call.
You can then make similar arguments for the other two promoted sides - Valladolid and Espanyol. Looking through both teams, you once again have to ask if they have enough quality to make the step up into the top flight, and with both, you'd have to lean more towards saying no.
Aside from the three promoted teams, you then have to look at Las Palmas, who are entering their second consecutive La Liga campaign since promotion in the 2022/23 season, and it could be their last. Once again, it is a question of quality, and after a dismal ending to the 2023/24 campaign, they could be in real trouble this season.
Just like most of the other top five leagues in Europe, such as the Bundesliga and the Italian Serie A, the bottom three teams at the end of the season are immediately relegated from La Liga. With it being a 20-team league, this means that the teams in positions 18, 19 and 20 are in the relegation zone. In the past, we have seen some pretty close battles on this front.
The 2023/24 edition, however, didn't exactly offer that much excitement in the bottom of the standings. Almeria and Granada finished rock bottom on the same amount of points, while Cadiz was the closest to salvation but still not close enough.