2025 Men's Ballon d'Or Winner Odds
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The Favourites to Win the 2025 Ballon d'Or
- Ousmane Dembélé with odds 1/4 on BetMGM
- Ferreira Vitinha with odds 20/1 on Bet365
- Mohamed Salah with odds 25/1 on Bet365
- Raphinha with odds 33/1 on Bet365
- Cole Palmer with odds 40/1 on Bet365
- Achraf Hakimi with odds 50/1 on Bet365
- Fabián Ruiz with odds 50/1 on Bet365
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia with odds 50/1 on Bet365
- Gianluigi Donnarumma with odds 66/1 on Bet365
- Kylian Mbappé with odds 66/1 on Bet365
Probability to Win the Ballon d'Or
| Player | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé | 1/4 | 80.00% |
| Ferreira Vitinha | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Mohamed Salah | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Raphinha | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Cole Palmer | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Achraf Hakimi | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Fabián Ruiz | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Nuno Mendes | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Jude Bellingham | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Pedri | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Robert Lewandowski | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Harry Kane | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Lautaro Martínez | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Michael Olise | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Declan Rice | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Denzel Dumfries | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Erling Haaland | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Florian Wirtz | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Serhou Guirassy | 500/1 | 0.20% |
Who is the Favourite to Win the Ballon d'Or?
As of 25 August 2025, according to the odds, the favourite to win the Ballon d'Or is Ousmane Dembélé, best priced at 1/4 with BetMGM.
The odds mean that the probability for Ousmane Dembélé to win is 80.00%.
What is the Ballon d'Or?
Ballon d'Or is an annual football event that celebrates the best player of the year with the Ballon d'Or award, which has been around since the 1950s. Although the likes of FIFA and UEFA also have similar awards, the Ballon d'Or remains the most prestigious and honourable one that a player can receive.
The award is presented by the newspaper France Football and starting from the 2024 edition, the event will also be co-organised by UEFA. Back in the day, the voting process solely involved football journalists but this is no longer the case, as players and managers from the top 100 countries in FIFA's world ranking are eligible to vote.
As for past winners, Lionel Messi is sitting comfortably at the top with eight Ballon d'Or, with the latest one coming in 2023. This after an impressive season with Paris Saint-Germain and Argentina's national team, winning the league with the former and the World Cup with the latter. At the age of 36, one can only applaud the No.10.
From its commendable history to the rigorous voting process - not to mention the aesthetically pleasing award itself - it is clear why the Ballon d'Or is regarded as the best individual award a player can win.
A Look at the 2025 Ballon d’Or Favourites
Even though the event will take place in October, there are already a few odds favourites to win the Ballon d'Or 2025. As the voters are told to base their pick on the previous season, the Ballon d'Or battle is indeed in full swing and as you can see above, there are two that stand out from the rest: Ousmane Dembele, Lamine Yamal. However, the other candidates are difficult to separate.
So, what should you expect from this battle? Let's go through them one by one, starting with the current odds favourite Dembele.
Ousmane Dembele
As this is being written, Ousmane Dembele has the chance to complete a prophecy of such. In the early days of his career, the sky seemed to be the limit and when Barcelona paid £100 million, the Frenchman was supposed to be the future of the Blaugrana.
However, it never was the case. Instead, his time in Spain was filled with problems. That didn't stop PSG from taking a gamble on him, and this year he has launched himself back into stardom.
The Parisian outfit, at the time of writing, are favourites to win the Champions League final in May, and he has spearheaded their charge - scoring eight times and assisting his teammates four times.
Dembele has finally reached the level that many hoped and expected he would. So, a Champions League trophy, which would be a crowning moment in itself, could also bring a Ballon d'Or.
A beautiful footballing story indeed.
Lamine Yamal
This section can be moved around for the next 15 years (we hope), with the Spaniard looking like football's next best thing. On every occasion of watching Yamal, the winger is beautiful and brilliant.
Barcelona have had to wait for an heir to Lionel Messi, and once it was hoped to be Dembele. It is clear now that it is Yamal. At 17 years old, the starlet has already won La Liga, progressed to the latter stages of the Champions League and won the European Championship (last summer).
He is very much the future of Spanish football and Barcelona, so we will be putting his name here regularly in the years to come, certainly. For Yamal, there will be no qualms if he does not win the trophy here. After all, he'll be back next year probably, and the next, and the next...
The Others
There are two clear frontrunners here and it seems, at this stage, that the trophy will go to one of the listed duo. However, things could change in the next few weeks, indeed.
Mo Salah is the third favourite at around the 8/1 mark, but winning a Premier League probably won't be enough, even with his goal tally being accounted for. Raphinha also comes in at this price, but if anyone from Barcelona is to win it, you'd imagine it would be Lamal.
Two prices that we're very intrigued by, though, are Gianluigi Donnarumma and Lautaro Martinez.
Starting with Donnarumma, the Italian has been magnificent for PSG and is probably the best goalkeeper in the world at this point in time. Proving reliable in their games so far this season, if the Parisians are to win the Champions League - thanks to another big performance from him - you could see him winning the trophy.
The same could be said for Lautaro Martinez, who is currently listed around the 10/1 mark. It has not been his best campaign in Serie A, scoring the second-fewest amount of goals of his Italian career.
However, he has scored nine times in the Champions League so far, and if the Nerazzurri pull off a double - which would certainly be unexpected - then his odds would shoot near the top two.
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