Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 11: Betting Tips and Insight

Fantasy Premier League is one of the biggest football games on the planet, but it can also be a great way to bet, and vice versa. So, we wanted to take a look at some fixtures and also rankings.

Below, you can find a preview of the weekend's fixtures, as well as the players 'most likely' to score, assist and make saves.

Fixture Ranking

It's best to start with the fixtures, and this weekend's are as follows:

• Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester United
• West Ham United vs. Burnley
• Everton vs. Fulham
• Sunderland vs. Arsenal
• Chelsea vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers
• Brentford vs. Newcastle United
• Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United
• Crystal Palace vs. Brighton and Hove Albion
• Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth
• Manchester City vs. Liverpool

For what it is worth, we have also got our Super Six predictions ready, if you would like some further insight into the games. However, this is going to be solely based on statistics, rather than personal predictions, really.

From the Official Fantasy Premier League rankings, the following teams have the easiest fixtures:

• BURNLEY vs. West Ham (A) - 2
• CHELSEA vs. Wolves (H) - 2
• EVERTON vs. Fulham (H) - 2
• NOTTINGHAM FOREST vs. Leeds (H) - 2
• WEST HAM vs. Burnley (H)

Using the odds from the bookmakers, we can find out the 'implied probability' of different results too, so according to the bookies, we have the following 'most likely' results:

1. Chelsea to Win vs. Wolves - 19/50 (72.46% implied probability)
2. Arsenal to Win vs. Sunderland - 2/5 (71.43% implied probability)
3. Manchester City to Win vs. Liverpool - 93/100 (51.81% implied probability)
4. West Ham to Win vs. Burnley - 1/1 (50% implied probability)
5. Everton to Win vs. Fulham - 5/4 (44.44% implied probability)
6. Aston Villa to Win vs. Bournemouth - 5/4 (44.44% implied probability)

Outcome

Normally, I'd say I was confident, but after their midweek result, Chelsea have a lot to do this weekend. Considering they did not look comfortable against Wolves in the cup just over a week ago, I'm not too confident here.

I'm also on the fence with Arsenal, whilst they should win again, I'd be wary of backing them away against Sunderland. The Mackems have a decent chance at home, and I think they are maybe being a bit hard done by by the bookmakers.

For the third game, I'm also not too confident. Manchester City are below evens to beat Liverpool. Now that is a massive bogey game if I've ever seen one, and I think it will be an exciting one to watch. I just don't think I'd be backing either at the price.

In terms of teams that I do like, Newcastle United have a solid chance against Brentford, and I was a bit shocked to see their odds so low, even if it is away from home. West Ham, I think, could be a decent option for a bet, and then Nottingham Forest against Leeds.

Betting recommendations: Newcastle United, West Ham, Nottingham Forest

FPL Clubs to target: CHE, NEW, WHU, NFO

Clean Sheet Rankings

Whilst a lot of this section is probably similar to the actual fixture rankings, here we're going to be looking at the clubs most likely to keep Clean Sheets. As you would expect, many of the 'easier' fixtures also have lower Clean Sheet Odds.

So, taking the outcome from 'Exact' goals from all 10 Premier League games this weekend, we have found the highest and lowest odds.

The team most likely to keep a clean sheet this weekend, as you would expect, is Arsenal, and their odds are below Evens, which is normal now. They have a 57.14% chance of a clean sheet, according to the odds.

Following them, Chelsea have a 47.62% chance of a clean sheet against Wolves, and I am surprised at this price, in all honesty.

Everton follow, being priced at 13/8 for a clean sheet at the weekend, which I am personally not too sure of.

At the other end of the spectrum, it will come as no surprise that Wolves are the most likely to concede a goal this weekend, with a 12.50% (7/1) likelihood of a clean sheet.

Outcome

Much of what I have said for Arsenal already is the case here again, and at below Evens, I would not really be looking at this bet too much, I don't think this is value, and I'd be steering clear. I'd also say the same with Chelsea.

Everton are certainly an interesting case, but I'd be quite wary about backing them for a clean sheet. Fulham's recent form is a bit deceptive when you consider the teams that they have faced. Even if their away form is dismal, I wouldn't be too comfortable here at 13/8.

Nottingham Forest's chances of a clean sheet do intrigue me a little, especially at almost 2/1. Perhaps that could be a decent bet. I also think this could be the case with Newcastle United at 5/2. For me, they are the only teams that stand out, but certainly not by much.

FPL Clubs to target: Good Luck - I think this is a case for output this weekend, rather than targeting specific clubs. It would not surprise me if most teams, perhaps all, score this weekend...

Scorer and Assist Bets

It is probably right for this bit to come last, simply based on the fact that we can take the odds from the results and also the list of Clean Sheet odds. So, we're going to target those teams that are seemingly a little more vulnerable.

However, this is a strange week for the odds, with me actually quite intrigued by all of the teams' odds. So, it is best to see the attached image for the clean sheet odds:

From this, we can see that there is an 87.50% chance that Chelsea will score vs. Wolves, whilst Sunderland have a 42.86% chance of scoring against Arsenal. In other words, there are several fixtures worth looking at.

After going through the odds of each player, though, here are the most likely 10 players to score or assist this weekend:

1. Erling Haaland (MCI) vs. Liverpool - 63.64% (4/7)
2. Joao Pedro (CHE) vs. Wolves - 61.90% (8/13)
3. Liam Delap (CHE) vs. Wolves - 54.05% (17/20)
4. Bukayo Saka (ARS) vs. Sunderland - 52.38% (10/11)
5. Jean-Philippe Mateta (CRY) vs. Brighton - 52.38% (10/11)
6. Ollie Watkins (AST) vs. Bournemouth - 50% (1/1)
7. Jarrod Bowen (WHU) vs. Burnley - 50% (1/1)
8. Estevao (CHE) vs. Wolves - 48.78% (21/20)
9. Matheus Cunha (MUN) vs. Spurs - 47.62% (11/10)
10. Mo Salah (LIV) vs. Manchester City - 47.62% (11/10)

Outcome

In his current form, it makes complete sense why Erling Haaland is so favoured to contribute this weekend, especially against a Liverpool side who have been shaky recently. There is a solid chance that he capitalises and continues his freakish form.

Joao Pedro's odds are interesting; he has been a bit quiet recently, and I am unsure if he will turn that around this weekend.

Looking elsewhere, I quite like Bowen's chances, with Evens looking like a really nice price; Mateta also looks a good shout. Outside of the top 10, Morgan Gibbs White could be an interesting price at 7/4. Iliman Ndiaye at 13/8 is also a nice price.

Antoine Semenyo and Danny Welbeck are both around the 2/1 mark, depending on who you bet with, and I like both of their chances.

FPL PLAYERS to target: Any CHE attacker, Mateta, Bowen, Gibbs-White, Ndiaye

FPL PLAYERS to avoid: Again, I think this will be a contribution-heavy week, rather than one for clean sheets...

For those looking for the complete list of odds for the games, clean sheets, and contributions, it can be seen below.