Cheltenham Festival 2026: Betting and Trends for Day 1

We're a week away from the Cheltenham Festival kicking off, and there is still some value to be found in the markets. So, let's take a look at the betting markets and some trends for each race on Day One of the festival.

Champion Day Betting Tips

Below, you can find the trends and insights for the seven races on Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival. The odds were correct at the time of writing.

Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends and Analysis

To start off, we'll go through the trends for this race, and then move on to the analysis.

For the Supreme, we're ideally looking for a horse rated above 153, that is aged five or six years old. Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have the best record in the race, with the former currently training the market favourite, Old Park Star.

Furthermore, most recent winners have come from the top of the market, whilst recent graded form must be noted.

So, with the trends out of the way. Let's take a little look at the market.

For me, there are a few to take note of.

Old Park Star comes into this race as the current favourite, and I could not contest that. So far, he has done everything asked of him superbly, showing the Supreme-type form that is required.

His jumping is professional, and he certainly has the speed. The fact that he is trained by Nicky Henderson, too, is only a positive for me, and it is difficult to overlook him.

Talk The Talk, currently, is the second favourite, but I'd be wary about backing him. Joseph O'Brien has trained him well so far, and there is no denying that he would not be out of place if he lined up in this race.

However, I personally feel that he may be better suited to the Turners - the first race on Day 2 - and there has been recent money in the market (on the exchange), for him to head to this race.

If he runs from the back of the field again, he may leave too much to do.

Mighty Park seems to be Willie Mullins' best shot in the race, and the legendary trainer has waxed lyrical about him so far. However, with just one run so far, I'd have concerns about how he'd hold up in this field.

He definitely has the talent, but I personally wouldn't be backing him heavily at the price.

El Cairos is another horse of interest, but I, again, cannot back him. He undoubtedly has the speed for the Supreme, but I don't think he has the jumping personally.

Looking a bit further afield, Idaho Sun is a massive standout for me, and I still cannot understand why he is 14/1 with some horse racing bookmakers. There is an argument that he is one of the best prices at the festival currently.

Running from the front, he should have a great chance, with him having the speed for this race. There could maybe be the odd question about his jumping, but it's a price that looks a bit too good currently.

Arkle Chase Tips

To start off, we'll go through the trends for this race, and then move on to the analysis.

For this race, we're looking for a six or seven-year-old, rated above 160. Again, Henderson and Mullins have fantastic records here, and this is a race for favourites.

For me - and about everyone else - this is a two-horse race. It is not controversial to suggest that it'll be won by Lulamba or Kopek Des Bordes, both of whom are incredibly classy and should be able to get the job done.

However, holes can be picked in both.

For the current favourite, Lulamba, it looks rather clear that he wants a further trip than the 2m of the Supreme. However, he jumps well, whilst never really being asked for much.

Kopek Des Bordes looked superb over fences when he ran, and his schooling sessions have looked solid. Nevertheless, he is attempting to win the Arkle off one run, which has only been done twice before.

He can do it, certainly, but his prep has been far from ideal.

As time passes, I'm finding it more difficult to pick between them, but I think, if asked now, I think I'd rather take the price on Kopek Des Bordes, who may even go off favourite.

Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Trends and Analysis

To start off, we'll go through the trends for this race, and then move on to the analysis.

There appears to be a bit of a sweet spot for horses, so keep an eye on those between 124-134 rated. Willie Mullins' record in this race is poor, whilst Paul Nicholls and Gordon Elliott are two to keep an eye on.

Furthermore, we're looking for the higher prices here, with almost half of the last 21 winners being at 20/1 or more.

The stats are rather difficult to navigate here, given that there are several that fit well in one bracket and then are slightly out of it in another.

Saratoga is a big horse of interest at 11/2, owned by JP McManus, who has recent success in the race, plus he comes into this race right in the sweet spot for ratings.

However, the aforementioned worries about the top end of the market would stick out here.

Munsif and Ammes have drawn plenty of interest in recent weeks, and both sit nicely in the rating bracket, whilst also being higher prices at 10s and 12s.

At present, there are 65 entries here, so it is really difficult to pick out fancies. However, I am getting drawn to Pourquoi Pas Papa, who is well-rated and trained by Paul Nicholls.

He falls under the 20/1 plus category, and Paul Nicholls has already said that he will run in this race. Interestingly, he is also French-bred, which is worth pointing out considering Nicholls' record with these types.

Although he was beaten by the third favourite Manlaga LTO, he now has a weight swing and will be two pounds better off, rather than having a four-pound disadvantage.

Ultima Handicap Chase Trends and Analysis

To start off, we'll go through the trends for this race, and then move on to the analysis.

The Ultima certainly favours horses younger than 10, and with a rating of between 139 and 145. It is a race for higher prices, again, with several winners at 10/1 and above in recent years.

Considering there are only two horses below 10/1 currently, this looks like it could be the case again.

Jagwar has been a longstanding favourite, and he certainly has the credentials to win here. However, his destination is seemingly not set with money for him in other races.

On the other hand, Iroko's destination seems set, and the route to the Grand National seems to have been planned out. He must record a top four finish to qualify for that race, and it can be argued that 7/1 is still value.

Ben Pauling has been rather bullish about Handstands' chances, stating that he could go well, despite being near the top of the handicap weights at 11-12. He has been well backed recently, too, so there is certainly a chance for him.

Myretown will also return to the lineup, seeking a second win in a row in this race. Having been underwhelming this season, he comes into this race with a beautiful handicap mark of 142.

He certainly has a good chance once again.

Champion Hurdle Trends and Analysis

To start off, we'll go through the trends for this race, and then move on to the analysis.

This race favours horses between 6 and 8 years old, and we are looking for previous Cheltenham winners. Understandably, the top six of the market have a great record.

Speaking brutally, this feels like a really poor renewal of this race. Questions were asked of Constitution Hill early in the season, and then injuries to State Man and Sir Gino mean that this is a considerably weaker race.

The New Lion now heads the market, and a lot is thought of the seven-year-old. However, questions can be asked about his compatibility in this race; even if he has the speed, it seems he may want a longer trip.

Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth follow next at 7/2, but there are questions about the latter's destination. Unfortunately, she could head to the Mares Hurdle on Thursday, which would be a big blow to the race.

That takes us to the fourth contender of this race, Golden Ace. Ultimately, at 7/1, I don't think there are many better bets on Tuesday. She has proven form at this level and is the reigning champion.

If Lossiemouth heads here, I'd be more willing to consider the race more open. However, Golden Ace should at least get a place, and 7/1 is big enough for a bit of profit, if nothing else.

Plate Handicap Chase Trends and Analysis

To start off, we'll go through the trends for this race, and then move on to the analysis.

We're looking for a horse above the age of five here, under 11 stone, ideally with a win at Cheltenham this season. The sweet spot for ratings is around 140, and there are plenty that suit the bill here.

Considering the trends, it is no surprise that seven of the top 10 in the market are under that 11-stone mark.

Madara has been well spoken about for Dan Skelton's yard and is the market favourite as a result. His RPR is 17lbs higher than his official rating, which is certainly something to keep an eye on, and the Skeltons are in fine form.

He also arrives at this race without much racing this season, which could be a positive or a negative. We are yet to see.

Donnacha looks like an interesting candidate, considering he has won at Cheltenham this season, doing so at the January meet, where he beat Jagwar (who may race here) over 2m 4f.

He was only raised a pound for that win, and it is form which cannot go under the radar.

Going back to the top of the market, JP McManus owned duo McLaurey and Waterford Whispers have solid claims going for them, considering they are both coming into this race with good weights.

Irish trainers have a really solid recent record, too, so the duo could be worth considering in this race.

National Hunt Challenge Cup Handicap Chase Trends and Analysis

To start off, we'll go through the trends for this race and then move on to the analysis.

Gordon Elliott's recent form is quite solid, whilst an eye must be kept on previous Cheltenham runners. In terms of ratings, the 130s mark is a bit of a sweet spot.

In terms of the National Hunt Chase, there are a few names to keep in mind.

Backmersackme is the current favourite, and after his performance at the Dublin Racing Festival, it is understandable why. However, he will run off a stone heavier here.

In fact, when carrying 11st or more over fences, he has never placed inside the top three, so that needs to be worth considering.

After Haiti Couleurs' win in this race last year, Rebecca Curtis is hoping for another with Newton Tornado, and he has a pretty similar mark to last year's winner. So, he certainly cannot be ruled out.

Whilst Wade Out holds an entry in the Brown Advisory on Day 2, it seems almost guaranteed that he runs in the last race of the first day. He has normally been racing in Class 1 races, so he does hold a valid claim here, even if he is set to run off top weight...

Jukebox Kid is a real interest for Ben Pauling, who has spoken highly of him in the past. Whilst the Irish National could be on the cards, he seems set to be heading here, and then a decision could be made.

Looking at the Gordon Elliott runners, it is worth keeping an eye on Kurasso Blue and The Enabler, who are both around the 20/1 region. Right now, it is unknown if either or both will be heading to this race. So, it is one to wait for declarations for. I'd be more keen on the latter, though, considering his form!