Latest League One Odds: Three Down, One To Go

As we head into the final month of the season, League One is heating up, as you would expect, and there are several talking points of interest at both ends of the division. Indeed, there are still several changes possible and probable.

Let's take a look!

A Matter Of When

Lincoln are so close to confirming themselves as the Champions of League One this season and they could do so this weekend if they beat Stevenage away from home.

Their latest win came at the weekend, with a 2-1 win against Leyton Orient. It is very possible that they reach 100 points this season and not enough is being said about how impressive an achievement that actually is.

On one of the lowest budgets in the league, Michael Skubala has gotten the Imps playing brilliant and effective football; they are fully deserving of that place as champions. 

Only Premier League title favourites Arsenal have lost fewer games this season, but they have also played 10 games fewer than the League One leaders.

It is difficult not to suggest that the Imps have been the most impressive team in England this season, irrespective of league. 

Cardiff could well make things a bit more interesting; they sit 12 points away from the leaders with a game in hand. Which could postpone the celebrations by another week. However, they will also have some slight title hopes still present. 

However, their recent form is not representative of a champion. They have won just two of their last five games and their opportunity has probably gone. If you do think they have a chance, 66/1 is available with the best football bookmakers…

Almost Confirmed

The play-off picture follows an almost similar trend now, where the placements are almost confirmed. Yet, there would be a small chance of a few changes. 

Bradford City and Bolton Wanderers are pretty much safe. Sitting on 71 and 70 points, they have a significant gap to seventh-placed Plymouth Argyle, who sit on 63 points. With only four games to go, they should be fine. Should, of course, being the keyword.

However, you could not be 10000% confident, with both losing at the weekend. The Bantams were beaten by fellow play-off hopeful Stevenage, who have really turned things around recently.

In Cardiff, Bolton were beaten by the title chasers. Had they not lost there, perhaps there would be a greater discussion about that second-place spot. 

Stockport did not play at the weekend, due to their participation in the EFL Trophy, which they lost. Their recent league form is impressive enough and you’d imagine that there wouldn’t be a significant drop-off due to the loss.

Their gap to seventh is only four points, but they have two games in hand. In other words, they can be safe pretty quickly.

Taking the final spot in the top six is the aforementioned Stevenage, whose win against Bradford has massively helped their chances of a play-off place. Three wins in their last four have catapulted them back into the play-offs and their spot could become even more secure, thanks to their game in hand. 

Like Stockport, they have a four-point advantage, but it could certainly get bigger.

Plymouth are sat looking alright for now, they are certainly in the best position to catch the play-off teams. However, the gap could extend to seven points with four games left to play.

In other words, it may be a job too tough to complete.

If I were to take a punt on any of the chasing teams, I think I’d have a look at Luton. They are currently sitting in 10th, six points away from sixth place. However, they have the best form of the teams outside the play-offs and their win in the EFL Trophy could bring them a bit of momentum. 

With a game in hand, too, the gap could be the most manageable of all the chasers. 12/1 with Sky Bet and Paddy Power seems a bit too good a price. A risky bet, certainly, but if pushed for an outsider, that is the value for me.

Who Joins the Trio?

Heading to the relegation spots, Port Vale are as good as down. They have a 16-point gap to overturn and whilst they have three games in hand, I have little to no faith in them to do so. There is a reason why their odds are so poor (1/2000).

Northampton and Rotherham both have a game in hand each, but they have 15 and 13 point gaps to overturn. Again, they are effectively down already, which means that we have had two winning anteposts in the relegation markets!

The final spot is an interesting one, though, and things could change quickly at the bottom. Exeter City are currently sitting on 47 points, three away from 20th-placed Wimbledon. However, they have played an extra game, which does not help.

Looking at how close the bottom sides are, you can make a point that anyone from 16th-placed Peterborough to 21st-placed Exeter is at risk.

Only four points separate the teams and in the final run-in, things can change so quickly.

Wimbledon’s form looks terrifyingly bad, especially considering they were chasing a play-off spot at one point. Winless since March 11, they need a serious turnaround. Otherwise, they risk being overtaken by their own problems.

Games against Stockport, Plymouth and Huddersfield Town await them, so it is not like they have an easy run-in either. 

You’d feel similarly concerned for Leyton Orient, who also sit on 50 points. However, games against Rotherham, Blackpool and Burton may offer enough chances for points just to stay safe. Saying that, the 20/1 offered by PricedUp may tempt some...

If pushed for a bet currently, I think there is value in Wimbledon to go down at 5/1, more so than the 1/3 for Exeter to succumb to the drop.