Latest League One Odds: Movement at Both Ends

As we head into the final months of the season, League One is heating up, as you would expect, and there are several talking points of interest at both ends of the division. Indeed, there are still several changes possible and probable. 

It has been a while since our last review, and a LOT has changed in the League One landscape to the point where it may look slightly unrecognisable to some. Let’s just dive straight in then, to look at the picture.

Lincoln Lead

Lincoln City’s fine form in the division has only kept going in recent weeks, and with six consecutive wins, they have made that top spot their own. Their recent form can only be marvelled at, especially since their last defeat came in November. 

Yes, that means that the Imps are currently almost four months unbeaten in the division, which is a phenomenal record. Wins against Cardiff last weekend and Stockport in the most recent set of fixtures mean that they are now four points clear at the top of League One, and the bookmakers are confident that they will keep going. 

In fact, with the best football bookmakers, they are now 4/9 to win the title. I did say that 9/4 was a pretty good price in a recent Odds Watch piece! 

Cardiff then sit in second, and they are struggling, at least by their own standards. They have only won two of their last five games, most recently with a 4-0 win against Exeter City. However, it is not enough for fears about their title hopes to subside. 

Whilst their automatic promotion seems almost guaranteed at this stage, thanks to an 11-point gap to Bolton Wanderers in third, they sit four behind one of the most in-form teams in Europe, let alone League One. 

Indeed, it seems difficult to picture them lifting the title this year, and who would’ve said that a few months ago…

Two Safe, Two Vulnerable

Looking at the play-off picture is now incredibly weird. It now just seems to be a case of keeping or earning a spot in the top six, rather than striving to get an automatic promotion place. Whilst understandable, it does take away some of the keenness to look into this area.

Nevertheless, there is still some drama available to us. 

Bolton sit in third, and like Lincoln, they are also on an incredibly solid run, which has seen them go unbeaten in the division since the start of January. Indeed, they have picked up seven wins in their last 13, and overlooking them currently is not worth doing. 

If, and it is a big if, Cardiff are to slip up, it is difficult to imagine the Whites not being there to pick up the pieces. 

Bradford then sit in fourth, as they strive to continue their fairytale and perhaps get promoted to the Championship at their first opportunity of doing so. 

The Bantams lost to Wigan at the weekend, but they have won three of their last five and have an eight-point safety buffer to Stockport in seventh. In other words, they have a bit of space to manoeuvre with. 

Then, we move to the interesting part of the play-offs. Between fifth and 13th, there is only an eight-point gap, so things are extremely tight and changes could come in their numbers between now and the end of the season. 

Stevenage, with three wins in their last four, have returned to the top six, and they will hope to earn some safety in the next few weeks. After their mid-season lull, they have returned to the promotion conversation at the right time. 

Huddersfield Town take the final spot in the play-offs currently, too, but you’d be mistaken for having much confidence in them. The Terriers have won just two of their last five games, and after failing to beat Port Vale, you’d fear for their chances.

Seventh-placed Stockport County have lost four of their last five, whilst Reading and Wycombe have not won either of their last two games, despite having chances to get into the top six. 

However, Dave Challinor's side have two games in hand on the Terriers, which could be vital. Winning either of them would take them back into the top six.

Aside from that group, the best-suited team, at least currently, may be Plymouth. They have won five of their last seven games, and they now seem to have settled into a bit of a rhythm.

They are only three points off of Huddersfield in sixth, and with them playing four of the top six in the next few weeks, they could make a push.

Sky Bet are offering 4/1 for them to find a place in the top six; indeed, this could be a nice price....

Difficult to Call

Looking at the relegation picture, things have not changed all too much. Port Vale remain rooted to the foot of the division, and the draw to Huddersfield has not really done much to help their position in the division. 

Indeed, they are now 13 points away from safety, which is almost half of the points they have earned this season. It is no surprise that they are such a low price to go down now…

Northampton’s hopes are fading very quickly, indeed, given that they have lost four of their last five; you’d not have much hope in them. Whilst the gap to Wigan is only six points, you’d have to go back to December to find the last time that they picked up as many points in the space of a month. 

Rotherham look similarly doomed, and 1/4 looks like an understandable price from Bet365. With only one win in their last five, you’d have significant fears about their future in League One at this moment. 

Finally, Blackpool take the last spot of the bottom three, but they only have a three-point gap to make up. Considering their last win came almost exactly a month ago, they just aren't getting the points required quickly enough. 

Wigan, on the other hand, have picked up two wins in their last five, and they are certainly starting to find some consistency. So, they may have slightly more hope of an escape from the drop zone.

Looking further above them, I’d have some concerns about Exeter’s chances, given they have not won a game since the middle of January. Whilst they have drawn six games since then, I would hold little confidence in them if others around them picked up a little. 

So, Paddy Power’s offer of 3/1 is slightly tempting, albeit a few dominoes need to fall, but there are worse bets in the League One outright markets.