Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 9: Betting Tips and Insight

Fantasy Premier League is one of the biggest football games on the planet, but it can also be a great way to bet, and vice versa. So, we wanted to take a look at some fixtures and also rankings.

Below, you can find a preview of the weekend's fixtures, as well as the players 'most likely' to score, assist and make saves.

Fixture Ranking

It's best to start with the fixtures, and this weekend's are as follows:

• Leeds United vs West Ham
• Chelsea vs Sunderland
• Newcastle vs Fulham
• Man United vs Brighton
• Brentford vs Liverpool
• Wolves vs Burnley
• Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
• Aston Villa vs Man City
• Bournemouth vs Nottm Forest
• Everton vs Tottenham

For what it is worth, we have also got our Super Six predictions ready, if you would like some further insight into the games. However, this is going to be solely based on statistics, rather than personal predictions, really.

From the Official Fantasy Premier League rankings, the following teams have the easiest fixtures:

• Chelsea vs. Sunderland (Home) - 2
• Leeds United vs. West Ham United (Home) - 2
• West Ham United vs. Leeds United (Away) - 2
• Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Burnley (Home) - 2

Using the odds from the bookmakers, we can find out the 'implied probability' of different results too, so according to the bookies, we have the following 'most likely' results:

1. Chelsea to Win vs. Sunderland - 2/5 (71.43% implied probability)
2. Arsenal to Win vs. Crystal Palace - 4/9 (69.23% implied probability)
3. Newcastle United to Win vs. Fulham - 13/20 (60.61% implied probability)
4. Liverpool to Win vs. Brentford - 8/11 (57.89% implied probability)
5. Bournemouth to Win vs. Nottingham Forest - 4/5 (55.56% implied probability)
6. Leeds United to Win vs. West Ham United - 4/5 (55.56% implied probability)

Outcome

Chelsea's game against Sunderland is certainly an interesting one, with the bookmakers feeling very confident about their chances of returning with three points this weekend. It certainly would be tough to go against them.

Arsenal then follow in second, and 4/9 seems like a really bad price, in my opinion, for them to beat a very strong Crystal Palace side. I'd be looking to avoid.

Newcastle United should have a pretty good game against Fulham, whose away record is quite poor, so a win there could be decent, but the price is not great.

I think the prices for Liverpool and Bournemouth are both decent, and maybe I'd factor Leeds United into this group, too. However, I wouldn't be 100% confident with the latter.

Betting recommendations: Chelsea to WIN, Newcastle United to WIN, Liverpool to WIN

FPL Clubs to target: CHE, NEW, LIV

Clean Sheet Rankings

Whilst a lot of this section is probably similar to the actual fixture rankings, here we're going to be looking at the clubs most likely to keep Clean Sheets. As you would expect, many of the 'easier' fixtures also have lower Clean Sheet Odds.

So, taking the outcome from 'Exact' goals from all 10 Premier League games this weekend, we have found the highest and lowest odds.

The team most likely to keep a clean sheet this weekend, as you would expect, is Chelsea, and their odds are just above evens, at 21/20. They have a 48.78% chance of a clean sheet, according to the odds.

Following them, Arsenal have a 47.62% chance of a clean sheet against Crystal Palace, which is not really a surprise given they have one of the best defences in Europe.

Newcastle United and Wolverhampton Wanderers, interestingly, then follow, with both being priced at 7/5 for a clean sheet this weekend.

At the other end of the spectrum, it will come as no surprise that Sunderland are the most likely to concede a goal this weekend, at 12.50% (7/1).

Outcome

You would imagine that Chelsea should keep a clean sheet this weekend at home against Sunderland, but the Black Cats do pose a risk, indeed.

I am not a fan of the price for Arsenal, again, for many of the same reasons cited for them in the win section. Equally, I am cautious about Wolves' chances sitting so high.

Newcastle look well-priced, I must admit, so they could be a nice price booster.

FPL Clubs to target: CHE, NEW

Scorer and Assist Bets

It is probably right for this bit to come last, simply based on the fact that we can take the odds from the results and also the list of Clean Sheet odds. So, we're going to target those teams that are seemingly a little more vulnerable.

However, this is a strange week for the odds, with me actually quite intrigued by 18 of the 20 teams' odds. So, we'll start at the top, with the team's expectancy for a clean sheet following:

Arsenal Clean Sheet - 47.62% (11/10)

Wolves Clean Sheet - 41.67% (7/5)

Bournemouth Clean Sheet - 40% (6/4)

Leeds United Clean Sheet - 40% (6/4)

Manchester City Clean Sheet - 34.48% (19/10)

Liverpool Clean Sheet - 33.33% (2/1)

Everton Clean Sheet - 31.25% (11/5)

Manchester United Clean Sheet - 28.57% (5/2)

Tottenham Hotspur Clean Sheet - 26.67% (11/4)

Burnley Clean Sheet - 26.32% (14/5)

West Ham Clean Sheet - 21.05% (15/4)

Nottingham Forest Clean Sheet - 20.00% (4/1)

Fulham Clean Sheet - 18.18% (9/2)

Brighton Clean Sheet - 18.18% (9/2)

Brentford Clean Sheet - 15.38% (11/2)

Crystal Palace Clean Sheet - 14.29% (6/1)

Sunderland Clean Sheet - 12.50% (7/1)

From this, we can see that there is an 87.5% chance that Chelsea will score vs. Sunderland, whilst Crystal Palace have a 52.38% chance of scoring against Arsenal. In other words, there are several fixtures to target.

After going through the odds of each player, though, here are the most likely 10 players to score or assist this weekend.

1. Mo Salah (LIV) vs. Brentford - 63.64% (4/7)
2. Erling Haaland (MCI) vs. Aston Villa - 61.90% (8/13)
3. Viktor Gyokeres (ARS) vs. Crystal Palace - 57.89% (8/11)
4. Joao Pedro (CHE) vs. Sunderland - 55.56% (4/5)
5. Alexander Isak (LIV) vs. Brentford - 54.95% (41/50)
6. Bukayo Saka (ARS) vs. Crystal Palace - 54.55% (5/6)
7. Hugo Ekitike (LIV) vs. Brentford - 53.19% (22/25)
8. Matheus Cunha (MUN) vs. Brighton - 52.38% (10/11)
9. Marc Guiu (CHE) vs. Sunderland - 52.08% (23/25)
10. Bryan Mbuemo (MUN) vs. Brighton - 50% (1/1)

Outcome

Backing any of the Chelsea attackers looks like a fairly good bet, especially at the prices they are currently at. Joao Pedro looks solid indeed, for example.

The normal names feature on the list too, and any of them could be worth taking note of. Bukayo Saka's odds look nice, though, as do Hugo Ekitike's.

Outside of the list, I quite like the look of Nick Woltemade's chances, as well as someone like Danny Welbeck, whose 2/1 odds are nice.

FPL PLAYERS to target: Any CHE attacker

FPL PLAYERS to avoid: SUN, CRY, BRE, BHA

For those looking for the complete list of odds for the games, clean sheets, and contributions, it can be seen below.