Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 7: Betting Tips and Insight

Fantasy Premier League is one of the biggest football games on the planet, but it can also be a great way to bet, and vice versa. So, we wanted to take a look at some fixtures and also rankings.

Below, you can find a preview of the weekend's fixtures, as well as the players 'most likely' to score, assist and make saves.

Fixture Ranking

It's best to start with the fixtures, and this weekend's are as follows:

• Bournemouth vs Fulham
• Leeds United vs Tottenham
• Man United vs Sunderland
• Arsenal vs West Ham
• Chelsea vs Liverpool
• Everton vs Crystal Palace
• Newcastle vs Nottm Forest
• Wolves vs Brighton
• Aston Villa vs Burnley
• Brentford vs Man City

For what it is worth, we have also got our Super Six predictions ready, if you would like some further insight into the games. However, this is going to be solely based on statistics, rather than personal predictions, really.

From the Official Fantasy Premier League rankings, the following teams have the easiest fixtures:

• Arsenal (vs. West Ham United, Home) - 2
• Aston Villa (vs. Burnley, Home) - 2
• Manchester United (vs. Sunderland, Home) - 2
• Tottenham Hotspur (vs. Leeds United, Away) - 2

Using the odds from the bookmakers, we can find out the 'implied probability' of different results too, so according to the bookies, we have the following 'most likely' results:

• Arsenal (H) to BEAT West Ham United - 2/9 (81.8% implied probability)
• Manchester United (H) to BEAT Sunderland - 1/2 (66.7% implied probability)
• Aston Villa (H) to BEAT Burnley - 3/5 (62.5% implied probability)
• Manchester City (A) to BEAT Brentford - 4/6 (60% implied probability)
• Newcastle United (H) to BEAT Nottingham Forest - 4/6 (60% implied probability)

Outcome

Immediately, the Arsenal game against West Ham stands out as a clear view of a winner. However, I just cannot see the value in it, at least from a betting perspective at 2/9. Though it could be used as a booster.

Aston Villa, on the other hand, to beat Burnley could be a decent little dip into the market. I certainly don't think they're a terrible shout, even if they have had a few struggles so far this season.

Manchester City are quite attractive at 4/6, I think, and they should have no issues getting past Brentford, who have struggled a lot so far this season.

Manchester United are a bit iffy to back, and whilst I have backed them in Super Six, I don't think they are a comfortable bet... I'd also say the same about Newcastle United against Nottingham Forest and Spurs against Leeds. Neither look too attractive, despite the odds.

Betting recommendations: Manchester City to BEAT Brentford, Aston Villa to BEAT Burnley

FPL Clubs to target: ARS, AST, MCI

Clean Sheet Rankings

Whilst a lot of this section is probably similar to the actual fixture rankings, here we're going to be looking at the clubs most likely to keep Clean Sheets. As you would expect, many of the 'easier' fixtures also have lower Clean Sheet Odds.

So, taking the outcome from 'Exact' goals from all 10 Premier League games this weekend, we have found the highest and lowest odds.

The team most likely to keep a clean sheet this weekend, as you would expect, is Arsenal, and their odds are below evens, which is really not surprising at all. In fact, there is a 57.1% chance of them not conceding against West Ham United.

Following them, Aston Villa are only slightly above evens, and look quite attractive at the price of 5/4 against Burnley. This is without considering a home advantage...

Manchester United, Manchester City and Newcastle United then follow in that order, so the differences between the clean sheet odds, winner odds and difficulty rankings are really not that great at all.

At the other end of the spectrum, West Ham are 10/1 to keep Arsenal at bay, with just a 9.1% chance of a clean sheet. Sitting above them, Sunderland have just a 14.3% chance, whilst Wolves and Nottingham Forest have a 17% chance of a clean sheet.

Outcome

Speaking of Arsenal with a boost, you can get a nice price on them to win without both teams scoring, which is really interesting, and is taking their odds to 17/20, which looks much, much better.

After scoring against Manchester City last weekend, I'd be slightly wary of backing Aston Villa to win without both teams scoring against Burnley. However, a price of 13/8 is quite nice, I must admit.

Despite the odds, I would not be too fond of backing Manchester United or Manchester City to keep clean sheets. In fact, I'd be tempted to back BTTS in both games, considering Sunderland have scored in all but two games this season, whilst Brentford have a goal, at least, in every fixture.

FPL Clubs to target: ARS, AST

Scorer and Assist Bets

It is probably right for this bit to come last, simply based on the fact that we can take the odds from the results and also the list of Clean Sheet odds. So, we're going to target those teams that are seemingly a little more vulnerable.

However, with the odds at the top being quite short, we have a decently extended list of teams that could concede this week. So, we'll start there, with the team's expectancy for a clean sheet following:

Everton Clean Sheet - 34.48% (19/10)

Brighton Clean Sheet - 33.33% (2/1)

Crystal Palace Clean Sheet - 30.77% (9/4)

Tottenham Hotspur Clean Sheet - 29.41% (12/5)

Leeds Clean Sheet - 27.78% - (13/5)

Liverpool Clean Sheet - 25.00% - (3/1)

Fulham Clean Sheet - 22.22% (7/2)

Wolves Clean Sheet - 21.74% (18/5)

Chelsea Clean Sheet - 20.83% (19/5)

Nottingham Forest Clean Sheet - 17.86% (23/5)

Burnley Clean Sheet - 17.24% (24/5)

Brentford Clean Sheet - 15.38% (11/2)

Sunderland Clean Sheet - 14.29% (6/1)

West Ham United Clean Sheet - 9.1% (10/1)

From this, we can see that there is a 90.9% chance that Arsenal score vs. Arsenal, whilst Crystal Palace have a 65.52% chance of scoring against Everton. In other words, there are several fixtures to target.

After going through the odds of each player, though, here are the most likely 10 players to score or assist this weekend.

1. Viktor Gyokeres (ARS) vs. West Ham United – 71.43% (2/5)
2. Bukayo Saka (ARS) vs. West Ham United – 69.23% (4/9)
3. Erling Haaland (MCI) vs. Brentford – 66.67% (1/2)
4. Matheus Cunha (MUN) vs. Sunderland – 63.64% (4/7)
5. Eberechi Eze (ARS) vs. West Ham United – 60.00% (4/6)
6. Benjamin Sesko (MUN) vs. Sunderland – 60.00% (4/6)
7. Bruno Fernandes (MUN) vs. Sunderland – 60.00% (4/6)
8. Mo Salah (LIV) vs. Chelsea – 57.89% (8/11)
9. Ollie Watkins (AST) vs. Burnley – 57.89% (8/11)
10. Omar Marmoush (MCI) vs. Brentford – 55.56% (4/5)

Outcome

Backing any of the Arsenal attackers to contribute looks to be a decent bet, at a certain point. In fairness, you'll get nicer odds on Gyokeres to score, without the chance of him assisting. However, Eze's odds, for example, look nice.

Haaland to score or assist for City this weekend is a really nice bet again, I think. Whilst I also quite like the look of Ollie Watkins against Burnley.

In terms of players not making it into the top 10, there are a few ideas that I like. Antoine Semenyo at 6/5 stands out against Fulham, whilst Alex Iwobi is also not a bad shout at the price of 2/1. A Richarlison contribution against Leeds offers value at 21/20, and finally, I like the idea of Danny Welbeck against Wolves at 6/5.

FPL PLAYERS to target: Any ARS attacker, Haaland, Watkins, Semenyo, Richarlison

FPL PLAYERS to avoid: WHU, BRE, BUR

For those looking for the complete list of odds for the games, clean sheets, and contributions, it can be seen below.