Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 6: Betting Tips and Insight

Fantasy Premier League is one of the biggest football games on the planet, but it can also be a great way to bet, and vice versa. So, we wanted to take a look at some fixtures and also rankings.

Below, you can find a preview of the weekend's fixtures, as well as the players 'most likely' to score, assist and make saves.

Fixture Ranking

It's best to start with the fixtures, and this weekend's are as follows:

• Brentford vs Manchester United
• Leeds United vs Bournemouth
• Manchester City vs Burnley
• Chelsea vs Brighton and Hove Albion
• Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
• Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland
• Tottenham Hotspur vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
• Aston Villa vs Fulham
• Newcastle United vs Arsenal
• Everton vs West Ham United

For what it is worth, we have also got our Super Six predictions ready, if you would like some further insight into the games. However, this is going to be solely based on statistics, rather than personal predictions, really.

From the Official Fantasy Premier League rankings, the following teams have the easiest fixtures:

• Bournemouth (vs. Leeds United, away) - 2
• Everton (vs. West Ham United, home) - 2
• Manchester City (vs. Burnley, home) - 2
• Nottingham Forest (vs. Sunderland, home) - 2
• Tottenham Hotspur (vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers, home) - 2

Using the odds from the bookmakers, we can find out the 'implied probability' of different results too, so according to the bookies, we have the following 'most likely' results:

• Manchester City (H) to BEAT Burnley - 2/11 (84.6% implied probability)
• Tottenham Hotspur (H) to BEAT Wolverhampton Wanderers - 1/2 (66.7% implied probability)
• Chelsea (H) to BEAT Brighton and Hove Albion - 4/5 (55.6% implied probability)
• Everton (H) to BEAT West Ham United - 5/6 (54.5% implied probability)
• Nottingham Forest (H) to BEAT Sunderland - 17/20 (54.1% implied probability)

Outcome

There should be no surprises here when I say that Manchester City and Tottenham are the two big opportunities this weekend. Whilst their odds aren't great, a double on them could be a decent price.

Elsewhere, I'd certainly have some concerns about Chelsea against Brighton, and I'm unsure why they are below Evens. Additionally, whilst Bournemouth to beat Leeds looks somewhat interesting, it's not a game I'd be running to, at least alone.

I do quite like Everton's chances against West Ham, especially with the markets opening up for the manager to replace Graham Potter. Nottingham Forest's chance of a home win against Sunderland are also decent, I think. However, I'd certainly fear any European fatigue.

Betting recommendations: Manchester City to BEAT Burnley, Tottenham Hotspur to BEAT Wolverhampton Wanderers and Everton to BEAT West Ham United

FPL Clubs to target: MCI, TOT, EVE, perhaps BOU + NFO.

Clean Sheet Rankings

Whilst a lot of this section is probably similar to the actual fixture rankings, here we're going to be looking at the clubs most likely to keep Clean Sheets. As you would expect, many of the 'easier' fixtures also have lower Clean Sheet Odds.

So, taking the outcome from 'Exact' goals from all 10 Premier League games this weekend, we have found the highest and lowest odds.

The team most likely to keep a clean sheet this weekend, as you would expect, is Manchester City, and their odds are below evens, which is really not surprising at all. In fact, there is a 54.1% chance of them not conceding.

Following them, Tottenham Hotspur are only slightly above evens, and look semi-atttractive at the price of 13/10. Especially considering Wolves have not scored a bucket load of goals this season.

Everton, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa then follow, so the differences between the odds and difficulty rankings are really not that great at all.

At the other end of the spectrum, Burnley are a whopping 12/1 to keep a clean sheet, meaning there is just a 7.7% chance that they keep the Citizens at bay. Following them, Wolves, Brighton and West Ham are not liked by the bookmakers.

Outcome

Manchester City to win without Burnley scoring increases the odds to near Evens, which is too tempting to turn down, all things considered. Imaginably, the Clarets will just sit in and defend, so the likelihood of them scoring is slim.

Tottenham's odds go to 6/4 if the game ends with Spurs winning to nil, which again is really tempting, so a little combo may be worth playing there. Barring them, there are no fixtures that I am really interested in at low prices anyway.

If you want a bigger price bet, my shout this weekend would be Bournemouth against Leeds. The fixture is low-ranked in the FPL difficulty, and the odds of a clean sheet are attractive in themselves.

At the time of writing, you can get 16/5 for the Cherries to win, without both teams scoring, a nice bet if I do say so myself.

FPL Clubs to target: MCI, TOT, EVE, NFO, AST

Scorer and Assist Bets

It is probably right for this bit to come last, simply based on the fact that we can take the odds from the results and also the list of Clean Sheet odds. So, we're going to target those teams that are seemingly a little more vulnerable.

However, with the odds at the top being quite short, we have a decently extended list of teams that could concede this week. So, we'll start there, with the team's expectancy for a clean sheet following:

Aston Villa Clean Sheet - 35.7% (9/5)

Arsenal Clean Sheet - 35.7% (9/5)

Chelsea Clean Sheet - 33.3% (2/1)

Liverpool Clean Sheet – 33.3% (2/1)

Bournemouth Clean Sheet – 30.8% (9/4)

Manchester United Clean Sheet – 29.4% (12/5)

Fulham Clean Sheet – 26.7% (11/4)

Leeds United Clean Sheet – 26.7% (11/4)

Newcastle United Clean Sheet – 25% (3/1)

Sunderland Clean Sheet – 22.2% (7/2)

Brentford Clean Sheet – 20% (4/1)

Crystal Palace Clean Sheet – 20% (4/1)

West Ham United Clean Sheet – 20% (4/1)

Brighton and Hove Albion Clean Sheet – 16.7% (5/1)

Wolverhampton Wanderers Clean Sheet – 14.3% (6/1)

Burnley Clean Sheet – 7.7% (12/1)

From this, we can see that there is a 92.3% chance that Manchester City score vs. Burnley, whilst Fulham have a 64.3% chance of scoring against Aston Villa. In other words, there are several fixtures to target.

After going through the odds of each player, though, here are the most likely 15 players to score or assist this weekend.

1. Erling Haaland (MCI) vs. Burnley - 76.9% (3/10)
2. Omar Marmoush (MCI) vs. Burnley - 69.2% (4/9)
3. Phil Foden (MCI) vs. Burnley - 63.6% (4/7)
4. Richarlison (TOT) vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers - 63.6% (4/7)
5. Rayan Cherki (MCI) vs. Burnley - 61.9% (8/13)
6. Cole Palmer (CHE) vs. Brighton and Hove Albion - 61.9% (8/13)
7. Mo Salah (LIV) vs. Crystal Palace - 57.9% (8/11)
8. Joao Pedro (CHE) vs. Brighton and Hove Albion - 57.9% (8/11)
9. Randal Kolo Muani (TOT) vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers - 57.9% (8/11)
10. Xavi Simons (TOT) vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers - 57.9% (8/11)
11. Benjamin Sesko (MUN) vs. Brentford - 55.6% (4/5)
12. Matheus Cunha (MUN) vs. Brentford - 55.6% (4/5)
13. Dominic Solanke (TOT) vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers - 55.6% (4/5)
14. Savinho (MCI) vs. Burnley - 55.6% (4/5)
15. Alexander Isak (LIV) vs. Crystal Palace - 54.5%(5/6)

Outcome

Backing any of the Manchester City players to score or assist against relegation favourites Burnley should offer us some nice returns and could be well worth targeting. However, we must wait for the lineups here to really make any selections.

Elsewhere, the odds of Joao Pedro bagging a goal or assist against his former club could be worth a bit of a look, whilst Alexander Isak's chances against Crystal Palace look interesting.

Those not included on the list, I quite like Antoine Semenyo to score or assist vs. Leeds United (6/4). Morgan Gibbs-White is 11/10 against Sunderland, which I'm intrigued by. Finally, Jack Grealish to score or assist against West Ham is 21/20, which also takes my fancy.

FPL PLAYERS to target: Any MCI attacker, Pedro, Palmer, Richarlison, Simons, Semenyo

FPL PLAYERS to avoid: BUR, WOL, WHU