With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability of winning Best Actress at the Oscars, according to the bookmakers.
Actor | Odds | Probability |
---|---|---|
Demi Moore – The Substance | 11/10 | 47.62% |
Mikey Madison – Anora | 6/5 | 45.45% |
Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez | 10/1 | 9.09% |
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked | 12/1 | 7.69% |
Marianne Jean Baptiste – Hard Truths | 12/1 | 7.69% |
Fernanda Torres – I'm Still Here | 25/1 | 3.85% |
Pamela Anderson - The Last Showgirl | 33/1 | 2.94% |
Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Angelina Jolie – Maria | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Amy Adams – Nightbitch | 66/1 | 1.49% |
Naomi Scott - Smile 2 | 66/1 | 1.49% |
Nicole Kidman – Babygirl | 66/1 | 1.49% |
Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door | 80/1 | 1.23% |
Anya Taylor-Joy – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door | 100/1 | 0.99% |
June Squibb – Thelma | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Florence Pugh – We Live in Time | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Daisy Ridley – Young Woman and the Sea | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Kate Winslet – Lee | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Kirsten Dunst – Civil War | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Lily Gladstone – Fancy Dance | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Regina King – Shirley | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Robin Wright – Here | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Zendaya – Challengers | 250/1 | 0.40% |
As of 18 January 2025, according to the odds, the favourite to win Best Actress is Demi Moore – The Substance, best priced at 11/10 with William Hill.
The odds mean that the probability for Demi Moore – The Substance to win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars is 47.62%.
Year | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Director | Best Picture |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | Brendan Fraser (The Whale) | Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
2022 | Will Smith (King Richard) | Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) | Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) | CODA |
2021 | Anthony Hopkins (The Father) | Frances McDormand (Nomadland) | Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) | Nomadland |
2020 | Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) | Renée Zellweger (Judy) | Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) | Parasite |
2019 | Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) | Olivia Colman (The Favourite) | Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) | Green Book |
2018 | Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) | Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) | Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) | The Shape of Water |
2017 | Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) | Emma Stone (La La Land) | Damien Chazelle (La La Land) | Moonlight |
2016 | Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) | Brie Larson (Room) | Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant) | Spotlight |
2015 | Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) | Julianne Moore (Still Alice) | Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman) | Birdman |
2014 | Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) | Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) | Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity) | 12 Years a Slave |
2013 | Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) | Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) | Ang Lee (Life of Pi) | Argo |
2012 | Jean Dujardin (The Artist) | Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) | Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) | The Artist |
2011 | Colin Firth (The King's Speech) | Natalie Portman (Black Swan) | Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) | The King's Speech |
2010 | Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) | Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side) | Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) | The Hurt Locker |
2009 | Sean Penn (Milk) | Kate Winslet (The Reader) | Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) | Slumdog Millionaire |
2008 | Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) | Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) | Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) | No Country for Old Men |
2007 | Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland) | Helen Mirren (The Queen) | Martin Scorsese (The Departed) | The Departed |
2006 | Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote) | Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line) | Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain) | Crash |
2005 | Jamie Foxx (Ray) | Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) | Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby) | Million Dollar Baby |
2004 | Sean Penn (Mystic River) | Charlize Theron (Monster) | Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King) | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
2003 | Adrien Brody (The Pianist) | Nicole Kidman (The Hours) | Roman Polanski (The Pianist) | Chicago |
2002 | Denzel Washington (Training Day) | Halle Berry (Monster's Ball) | Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) | A Beautiful Mind |
2001 | Russell Crowe (Gladiator) | Julia Roberts (Erin Brockovich) | Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) | Gladiator |
2000 | Kevin Spacey (American Beauty) | Hilary Swank (Boys Don't Cry) | Sam Mendes (American Beauty) | American Beauty |