With the outright odds, we can calculate the probability that each team will win the 2026 World Cup.
| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 9/2 | 18.18% |
| England | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Argentina | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Brazil | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| France | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Portugal | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Germany | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Netherlands | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Norway | 28/1 | 3.45% |
| Italy | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Belgium | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Colombia | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Uruguay | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Mexico | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Morocco | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| USA | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| Croatia | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ecuador | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Japan | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Switzerland | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Denmark | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Senegal | 125/1 | 0.79% |
| Austria | 200/1 | 0.50% |
| Canada | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Paraguay | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Scotland | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Turkey | 250/1 | 0.40% |
| Egypt | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Ivory Coast | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Poland | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Sweden | 300/1 | 0.33% |
| Algeria | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Wales | 400/1 | 0.25% |
| Australia | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Bolivia | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Czech Republic | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Ghana | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Iran | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Slovakia | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| South Korea | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Tunisia | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Ukraine | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Qatar | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| Republic of Ireland | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| Romania | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| South Africa | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
| Albania | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| DR Congo | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Iraq | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Jamaica | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Kosovo | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| New Zealand | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Panama | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
| Cape Verde | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
| North Macedonia | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
| Uzbekistan | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
| Jordan | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
| Northern Ireland | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
| Suriname | 3000/1 | 0.03% |
| New Caledonia | 4000/1 | 0.02% |
| Curacao | 5000/1 | 0.02% |
| Haiti | 5000/1 | 0.02% |
As of 27 January 2026, according to the odds, the favourite to win the 2026 World Cup is Spain, best priced at 9/2 with Bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for Spain to be the winner of the World Cup is 18.18%.