With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability that each team will win League One, according to the bookmakers.
Team | Odds | Probability |
---|---|---|
Birmingham | 1/3 | 75.00% |
Wycombe | 10/1 | 9.09% |
Wrexham | 16/1 | 5.88% |
Barnsley | 25/1 | 3.85% |
Bolton | 25/1 | 3.85% |
Huddersfield | 25/1 | 3.85% |
Stockport | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Lincoln | 80/1 | 1.23% |
Reading | 125/1 | 0.79% |
Charlton | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Mansfield | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Peterborough United | 150/1 | 0.66% |
Blackpool | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Exeter | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Rotherham | 250/1 | 0.40% |
Stevenage | 750/1 | 0.13% |
Leyton Orient | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
Wigan | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
Bristol Rovers | 2500/1 | 0.04% |
Crawley | 5000/1 | 0.02% |
Northampton | 5000/1 | 0.02% |
Burton | 10000/1 | 0.01% |
Cambridge | 10000/1 | 0.01% |
Shrewsbury | 10000/1 | 0.01% |
As of 21 November 2024, according to the odds, the favourite to win the EFL League One is Birmingham, best priced at 1/3 with bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for Birmingham to win is 75.00%.
I'd love to be optimistic about the League Title battle, but I'm really struggling. As a football fan, I'd love to see a battle for the title, but I don't think that will be the case, but I'd love to be wrong.
The clear favourites to win the division are Birmingham City, and there is a good reason for this. When taken over by the American group, Birmingham Sports Holdings, the expectation was to progress immediately, but this was not the case, and the Blues were relegated from the Championship.
Relegation does not always mean a lack of progress, though. It can be argued that the club have needed a reset of some kind for a few years, and the drop has allowed that, and Birmingham have taken advantage of that.
Instead of allowing the drop to consume them, the owners have gambled heavily in some respects, spending more than £10 million this season - a figure that not many Championship clubs have come near.
As a result, I struggle to see past them winning the title this season. They have quality across the pitch, and I think they have the top goalscorer in the division in Alfie May, who has been fantastic in the past few years in League One.
To look further at the bookies' predictions for the division, some of the best football bookmakers are offering prices on Birmingham to break the points record for the division, which is a telling offer about the quality of the Blues.
I like Huddersfield Town and Bolton Wanderers as other selections to win the division, and perhaps, there could be some money in some each-way bets on them, given the prices available. However, I'm really struggling to look past Birmingham, but I'm not sure how close they may get to the points record that Wolverhampton Wanderers set in 2013/14 - 103 points in 46 games.
Read my full 24/25 League One season preview and betting tips to see my top goalscorer pick, relegation and promotion predictions.
Below are the previous League One champions for the past 10 seasons.
Season | Winner | Number of Titles |
---|---|---|
2023-24 | Portsmouth | 4 |
2022-23 | Plymouth Argyle | 5 |
2021-22 | Wigan Athletic | 4 |
2020-21 | Hull City | 4 |
2019-20 | Coventry City | 3 |
2018-19 | Luton Town | 3 |
2017-18 | Wigan Athletic | 4 |
2016-17 | Sheffield United | 1 |
2014-15 | Bristol City | 4 |
2013-14 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 |