Latest Championship Odds: Relegation Looming for Leicester

After another interesting weekend of Championship action, we’re back for another Odds Watch piece to assess the changes at the top and bottom of the league, and what betting opportunities may now be there as a result. 

No Promotion Party... Yet

We start at the Coventry Building Site Arena, where Sheffield Wednesday held the Champions-elect Coventry City to a draw that has prevented them from wrapping up promotion to the Premier League. At least for now, the Sky Blues can still lose their automatic spot. Yet, it seems almost impossible for them to do so. 

With only four games to go and a 12-point gap to third, they are in a great position. Of course, it would’ve been nice to leave the Championship in front of a home crowd, but they will now have to go again in midweek, where they face Blackburn away from home. 

In terms of the title ‘race’, the closest challengers to Frank Lampard’s side are Ipswich Town, who have won their last two games. They sit 10 points away from the top spot, but they do have two games in hand. If they were to win both, they would only be four points away with as many games left to play.

In other words, they can still dethrone Doug King’s team. Will they? Well, that is another question entirely.

The current (and understandable) 1/33 favourites face Blackburn, Portsmouth, Wrexham and Watford. A play-off chaser and two sides facing possible relegation.

Ipswich are on a massive momentum bounce at the moment, after they beat Norwich City away from home to confirm an East Anglian derby double. 

It will certainly not be easy for them to topple the leaders, though. Portsmouth are next on the bill, then games against Middlesbrough and Southampton follow, with trips to Charlton and West Bromwich Albion sandwiched between. Finally, they will welcome QPR to Portman Road. 

In other words, their run of fixtures seems infinitely more difficult than what is facing the Sky Blues.

Bottling It?

Looking at the play-offs next, Millwall and Middlesbrough are almost confirmed to be playing at least another four games of Championship action this season. The duo sit on 73 and 72 points respectively, so they have a pretty nice gap built up. 

However, neither side are ending the season convincingly. With a loss and a draw in their last two games, Millwall have lost pace chasing the automatic promotion spots. Drawing with West Brom is not great, even if they are fighting desperately against relegation. 

For Boro, a 97th-minute winner from Portsmouth says enough about their recent struggles. They have not won since March 3 and that is pretty telling. Indeed, they are desperate for a pick-me-up and whether one will arrive is debatable. 

It is the complete opposite of the form you want to be heading into the playoffs with. In fact, it is the form that you’d associate with a relegation side…

Southampton, on the other hand, are steaming their way into the play-offs and they are the most in-form side in the Championship. They have won their last six games on the bounce, including an FA Cup win over Arsenal.

In fact, their last loss came in January. It is a real switch in terms of the form that you want and need before the play-offs start.

Hull take the final spot in the top six and their position automatically makes them the most vulnerable team. However, their recent form is rather hollow, and one would suggest that this could provide a few market opportunities. 

Winning one of their last five games, a loss against Sheffield United this weekend was the latest shortcoming and they are only four points clear of seventh place. 

So, with the Tigers sitting on 68 points and with four games left to go, there are only really two teams that could challenge for that spot: Wrexham and Derby. Sitting on 64 and 63 points, they have a gap to overcome, but it will be difficult to get into the play-offs.

Starting with the Red Dragons, their run looks incredibly tough. Stoke and Oxford await them before games against Coventry City and Middlesbrough. In other words, you’d be less keen to back them than before knowing that. This is why they are 5/1 with Paddy Power.

Derby have a five-point swing to overcome, but you’d argue they have a slightly better shot at it than Wrexham. Oxford, Norwich, QPR and Sheffield United are certainly a nicer run of fixtures, but it will also not be easy. 

At 7/1 with the best football bookmakers, I’d rather back them than the Welsh outfit. Saying that, there is a reason why Hull are 3/10 for that final spot in the top six.

Leicester Heading Down?

Moving to the relegation spots, Leicester are in severe trouble. What has gone from a ‘they might go down’ is now a ‘wait, they actually might go down’. After losing to Swansea at the weekend, they are now winless since March 10. 

As a result, they sit four points away from safety and they just do not look like they will pick up any positive results between now and the end of the season.

Who’d have thought that they would be 1/4 for relegation at the start of the season?

Oxford United then take the final spot in the bottom three, but they are on a nice run of form currently. This weekend’s win against Watford was their fifth point in their last three games and they certainly can escape the bottom three.

It will be difficult, though, thanks to their run of fixtures. Derby, Wrexham and Millwall await, but a game against Sheffield Wednesday may help their chances a little bit. 4/5 is an understandable price for them to go down at this point. 

Portsmouth’s late winner against Middlesbrough has put them outside the bottom three and they will hope to find a little more safety in the final weeks of the season. They sit only a point away from the U’s, so they are far from safe, but the effects of that win may carry them through. 

West Brom are also in the picture, but two wins and five draws in their last seven games mean that they may have hit form at the right moment. They certainly look more solid than they have done for most of the season and only a few points may be needed for safety now. 

Betfred have them at 6/1 to go down, you’d be brave taking that price, I think.