Team | Odds | Probability |
---|---|---|
Birmingham | 1/20 | 95.24% |
Wycombe | 8/13 | 61.90% |
Huddersfield | 13/8 | 38.10% |
Wrexham | 2/1 | 33.33% |
Bolton | 7/2 | 22.22% |
Stockport | 5/1 | 16.67% |
Barnsley | 8/1 | 11.11% |
Reading | 16/1 | 5.88% |
Lincoln | 18/1 | 5.26% |
Blackpool | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Charlton | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Rotherham | 40/1 | 2.44% |
Peterborough United | 50/1 | 1.96% |
Mansfield | 66/1 | 1.49% |
Stevenage | 80/1 | 1.23% |
Wigan | 80/1 | 1.23% |
Leyton Orient | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Exeter | 125/1 | 0.79% |
Northampton | 750/1 | 0.13% |
Bristol Rovers | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
Burton | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
Cambridge | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
Shrewsbury | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
Crawley | 1500/1 | 0.07% |
As of 21 December 2024, according to the odds, the favourite to win promotion from the EFL League One is Birmingham, best priced at 1/20 with BetVictor.
The odds mean that the probability for Birmingham to get promoted is 95.24%.
The clear favourites for promotion and to win the division are Birmingham City, and there is a good reason for this. When taken over by the American group, Birmingham Sports Holdings, the expectation was to progress immediately, but this was not the case, and the Blues were relegated from the Championship.
Instead of allowing the drop to consume them, the owners have gambled heavily in some respects, spending more than £10 million this season - a figure that not many Championship clubs have come near.
As a result, I struggle to see past them winning the title this season and, at the bare minimum, promotion. They have quality across the pitch, and I think they have the top goalscorer in the division in Alfie May, who has been fantastic in the past few years in League One.
If we were to do a 1-24, Bolton and Huddersfield would be the teams I'd be thinking about putting second and being honest, I'm glad we do not have to pick between them.
Arguments can be made for both teams.
Starting with Bolton, they have been in the playoffs for the past two seasons, so it would be no surprise if they are in the same position again this season. Ian Evatt is in his fourth year in charge of the Wanderers, and with three campaigns of progress, this could be the year of promotion, and they have made some nice additions.
Looking at the Terriers, they were taken over at the end of the 22/23 season, they failed to move forward last season. However, several issues on and off the pitch needed rectifying, and this summer, attempts have been made to do this. They have kept the vast majority of their squad, and have added some decent players, which I like, and they have one of the better coaches in the division. However, a few areas still need improvement, but there is time to bring in other players.
Elsewhere I really like Wigan Athletic, Charlton Athletic and Lincoln City for shouts of promotion, all three have some key talking points to make about each, and this season could be a chance for them to push on into the playoff picture.
There are some notable omissions from that list too, though. For Rotherham United, Barnsley, and Peterborough United, I'm also conflicted. Rotherham have recruited well, and have a fantastic manager in Steve Evans, but they have effectively overhauled their squad in one window, and I'm not sure how this will go.
Barnsley are coming off the back of two unsuccessful playoff campaigns, and whilst they have made some decent signings, they have lost a lot of quality from their squad, a lot of them on free transfers.
With Peterborough, they have lost a lot of their star players from the last few seasons, and I'm really unsure of their replacements, or at least how they will fare at the start of the season, so whether they can push for promotion is a doubt for me.
If you are interested in more League One predictions, check out my full preview, which includes relegation, top goalscorer, and winner picks.
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