Europa League: How the Last Eight Are Fancied in the Outright Winner Market

With another round of ties having come and gone, the odds for the Europa League outright betting have moved considerably again with the field very much condensed from where it was a couple of weeks ago. Here we look at the winners and losers of the odds movement.

Europa League Quarter-Final: British Trio Advance

Before a ball was kicked in the last 16, Tottenham and Manchester United were both quite heavily fancied to go deep in the Europa League. Both though came into their respective second legs with work to do though. From a British side of things, thankfully, both delivered in their home legs to advance to the next stage seeing off AZ Alkmaar and Real Sociedad respectively.

One of the big surprises of the round though went to a side north of the border, Rangers. Rangers, who appointed Barry Ferguson as manager prior to the first leg, faced a Jose Mourinho side in Fenerbahce who were ranked in the top half of the odds to win the competition. A memorable win in Istanbul was just about followed up at Ibrox courtesy of penalties to see the Gers march on.

In the next round, Man United head to Lyon with the second leg back at Old Trafford, which is a positive. Tottenham and Rangers though have their home leg up first as they face Frankfurt and Athletic Bilbao for a place in the semi-finals.

How Have the Outright Odds Changed?

The first thing to note with the Europa League outright odds is that every team have just seen their probability of lifting the trophy increase. That might sound obvious with 16 teams reducing to eight but it doesn't always work like that, and certainly didn't when 32 became 16 at the last draw.

Several of the sides haven't seen drastic changes to their overall chances. Norwegian outfit Bodo/Glimt have shortened from 125/1 down to 40/1, which, whilst a big shift in price isn't a huge change to their overall probability of winning as they move from 0.8% chance up to a 2.4% chance. Rangers meanwhile have increased their chances by the same 1.6% movement; they now sit as a 22/1 shot to go all the way.

A big stumbling block to Rangers' chances not looking great is their quarter-final opponent, Bilbao. Bilbao, who eliminated Roma, have seen the biggest shift in probability. A price of 7/2 for the Spanish club to win the Europa League is a 7.9% improvement to their prospects.

English duo Man United and Tottenham then rank as second and third favourites for the crown. Both are 4/1 picks but with United having seen the biggest step up having shortened from 6/1 compared to Spurs' 9/2 pre-Round of 16 price.

That leaves three other teams to touch on to cover all bases. Lyon are now priced at 11/1, down from 16s whilst Frankfurt rank third for the biggest probability shift having seen their chances increase by 5.9%.

Then there is Lazio; at 9/2 and an implied 18.2% chance of lifting the trophy, we'd suggest there is value to be had on the Italian side. They will be huge favourites to advance past Bodo/Glimt in the next round and then they'll only be 180 minutes from the final.