UK Christmas No 1 Odds
Compare the latest odds for the winner of the UK Christmas number one as determined by The Official Charts Company.
bet365 
William Hill 
Ladbrokes 
Coral 
BetVictor 
talkSPORT BET 
Parimatch 
Betano 
Unibet 
BetMGM 
Betfred 
The Favourites to Win Christmas Number One
- Band Aid 40 with bet365 at 5/4
- Wham! with bet365 at 12/5
- Mariah Carey with bet365 at 5/1
- Liam Payne with bet365 at 15/2
- Reverend and the Makers with William Hill at 9/1
- Wes Nelson with bet365 at 12/1
- McFly with bet365 at 14/1
- Tom Grennan with bet365 at 14/1
- Gorillaz with bet365 at 16/1
- Cliff Richard with bet365 at 20/1
Probability to Win Christmas Number 1
With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability of winning Christmas Number One, according to the bookmakers.
| Acts | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Band Aid 40 | 5/4 | 44.44% |
| Wham! | 12/5 | 29.41% |
| Mariah Carey | 5/1 | 16.67% |
| Liam Payne | 15/2 | 11.76% |
| Reverend and the Makers | 9/1 | 10.00% |
| Wes Nelson | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| McFly | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Tom Grennan | 14/1 | 6.67% |
| Gorillaz | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Cliff Richard | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| One Direction | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Richard Ashcroft | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| AJ/Big Justice | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Ed Sheeran | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Gok Wan feat House Gospel Choir | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Perrie | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Ricky Warwick | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Brian Harvey | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Taylor Swift | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Yachtley Crew | 33/1 | 2.94% |
| Lady Gaga/Bruno Mars | 35/1 | 2.78% |
| Oasis | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Becky Hill | 45/1 | 2.17% |
| Chris Simmons | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Emeli Sande | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Sam Ryder | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| KSI | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| The Pogues | 55/1 | 1.79% |
| Gracie Abrams | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| Harry Styles | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| RAYE | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| Sam Fender | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| Sidemen | 60/1 | 1.64% |
| Chappell Roan | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Dua Lipa | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Slade | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Adele | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| Billie Eilish | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| Coldplay | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| East 17 | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| Lady Gaga | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| Wizzard | 70/1 | 1.41% |
| Ariana Grande/Cynthia Erivo | 90/1 | 1.10% |
| Gigi Perez | 90/1 | 1.10% |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 90/1 | 1.10% |
| The Cure | 90/1 | 1.10% |
| Andrea Bocelli | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ariana Grande | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Benson Boone | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Brad Kella | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Brenda Lee | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Britney Spears | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Charli XCX | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Chris Rea | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Cian Ducrot | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Cynthia Erivo | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Dear Alice | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Ella Henderson | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Elton John | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Fred Again | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Girls Aloud | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jack Harlow | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Jose Feliciano | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Justin Bieber | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Kate Bush | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Lewis Capaldi | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Michael Buble | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Neil Diamond | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Noah Kahan | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Rihanna | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Robbie Williams | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| S Club | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Sam Smith | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Shakin Stevens | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Tate McRae | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| Teddy Swims | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| The Beatles | 100/1 | 0.99% |
| V/Bing Crosby | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Who is the Favourite to Win Christmas Number One?
As of 22 November 2024, according to the odds, the favourite to win Christmas Number One is Band Aid 40, best priced at 5/4 with bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for Band Aid 40 to win Xmas number 1 is 44.44%.
Favourites to be the UK's Christmas Number One 2024
Let's take a look at some of the names in the frame to be 2024's UK Christmas Number One:
The odds were correct at the time of writing. For the latest odds, check the list above.
Band Aid 40 - Do They Know It's Christmas? (5/4)
One of the top-selling songs in UK chart history is back, with a new mix of the classic charity track Do They Know It's Christmas? released in order to mark Band Aid's 40th anniversary.
But the release has been controversial with Ed Sheeran speaking out against it, claiming he would have rejected having his vocals used had he been asked to give his approval. That could harm the chance of Do They Know It's Christmas? being number one at Christmas yet again.
Wham - Last Christmas (12/5)
An amazing 39 years after it was first released, Last Christmas finally topped the UK charts at Christmas in 2023.
With streaming now taken into account to a large degree when working out the charts, the Wham! classic is right up there in the Christmas Number One betting odds again.
Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You (5/1)
First released in 1994, All I Want For Christmas Is You is marking its 30th birthday this year. What could be a better celebration than finally claiming the UK's Christmas Number One spot?
A festive staple on radio stations from mid-November, the Mariah Carey smash hit was first edged out of top spot by East 17's Stay Another Day and at last topped the charts in 2020.
Liam Payne - All I Want (For Christmas) (15/2)
The sad recent death of Liam Payne has led to a fan campaign for his 2019 release All I Want (For Christmas) to top the festive chart.
Payne's ballad initially made little impact on the official charts but the power of One Direction fans could see it place very highly in the Christmas chart. Other Liam Payne songs are also likely to be back in the charts and would see bets on him winning.
Reverend and the Makers - Late Night Phonecall (9/1)
The Sheffield indie band might be a surprise name in the Christmas Number One betting odds, but new track Late Night Phonecall is raising money for Samaritans and charity singles do well.
Tom Grennan - It Can't Be Christmas (14/1)
Another new release for 2024 comes from Tom Grennan, but being available exclusively on Amazon Music could damage the chances of It Can't Be Christmas getting the top spot.
Grennan has only twice charted in the top 10, with Little Bit of Love reaching seventh spot in 2017, so his chances of claiming the Christmas Number One this year do not look strong.
One Direction - Any song (20/1)
Bookies are hedging their bets with some of 1D's biggest hits having got back into the charts in the wake of Payne's passing.
Night Changes, Story Of My Life and What Makes You Beautiful are all in with a chance, but a Payne solo song might have a better shot at Christmas Number 1.
Richard Ashcroft - Sonnet (20/1)
The Verve singer Richard Ashcroft has recorded an acoustic version of his band's classic song Sonnet for this year's John Lewis Christmas advert, which typically provides a festive chart hit.
Christmas Number One Long Shots
Some of the biggest pop stars in the world are also in with an outside shot of being the UK's Christmas Number One in 2024.
Ed Sheeran (25/1) could claim the honour for the third time in his career to date after topping the charts with his solo song Perfect back in 2017 and then also appearing on LadBaby charity hit Sausage Rolls for Everyone with Elton John four years later. New festive track Under The Tree is likely to be streamed heavily by Sheeran's large fanbase.
The ubiquitous Taylor Swift is also at 25/1 as she hunts her first UK Christmas Number One. Sabrina Carpenter (33/1) has had a string of huge hits in 2024 with Espresso and Taste both selling by the bucketload, so could she finish the year with the Christmas Number One as well?
Rock fans could boost Ricky Warwick's festive single All I Want For Christmas… Is Christmas! Featuring The Cult’s Billy Duffy and Def Leppard’s Joe Elliott, it is currently offered at 25/1.
Little Mix singer Perrie (25/1) has released Christmas Magic. Her old band narrowly missed out on topping the festive charts in 2011 after being announced as the winners of The X Factor, with their cover of Damien Rice song Cannonball going to number one but then missing out on the festive honour when it was usurped by Military Wives with Gareth Malone (Wherever You Are).
Cliff Richard (40/1) has already had four Christmas Number Ones in the UK in his career - one with Band Aid II and one with The Shadows, plus two as a solo act - and he could be in the mix.
This year saw Oasis announce their return with tickets for their stadium shows like gold dust. Some bookmakers have them at 40/1 for the Christmas Number One, with others at just 10/1.
Most bookmakers are not yet offering odds on recent number one hit Sailor Song by Gigi Perez being the Christmas Number One, but it is worth keeping an eye on it, if it maintains momentum.
Previous Christmas Number One Winners in the UK
So, what can we learn from taking a look at some former UK Christmas Number One winners?
In recent times, the honour has been taken by a mix of social media influencers and television talent show contest winners, along with the odd protest winner like Rage Against the Machine.
LadBaby, which is made up of husband and wife Mark and Roxanne Hoyle, took the Christmas Number One in the UK five years in a row as they raised money for food banks charity the Trussell Trust with their food-themed songs including I Love Sausage Rolls and Food Aid.
But that streak came to an end in 2023 with Wham! taking top spot with the festive classic Last Christmas, which is again in the running. George Michael was first and second in the 1984 chart when Band Aid was first released and the late star might repeat the trick this year as well.
It is now a decade since a contestant from a top TV talent show claimed the Christmas Number One UK spot, with Ben Haenow's Something I Need bringing an era of dominance to an end.
Girls Aloud (Sound of the Underground), Shayne Ward (That's My Goal), Leona Lewis (A Moment Like This), Leon Jackson (When You Believe) and Alexandra Burke (Hallelujah) were some other TV talent stars to take the Christmas Number One spot in the UK during that period.
At the moment, Bohemian Rhapsody by Queen is the only record to have been named the UK's Christmas Number One on two occasions, topping the charts at both Christmas 1975 and 1991.
Wham's Last Christmas could match that record by defending its crown after it topped the 2023 Christmas chart, making more festive history for George Michael.
UK Christmas Number One Singles
| Year | Artist | Song Title |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wham! | Last Christmas |
| 2022 | LadBaby featuring Martin Lewis and The Food Bank Choir | Food Aid |
| 2021 | LadBaby featuring Ed Sheeran and Elton John | Sausage Rolls for Everyone |
| 2020 | LadBaby | Don't Stop Me Eatin' |
| 2019 | LadBaby | I Love Sausage Rolls |
| 2018 | LadBaby | We Built This City |
| 2017 | Ed Sheeran | Perfect |
| 2016 | Clean Bandit featuring Sean Paul and Anne-Marie | Rockabye |
| 2015 | Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Choir | A Bridge Over You |
| 2014 | Ben Haenow | Something I Need |
| 2013 | Sam Bailey | Skyscraper |
| 2012 | The Justice Collective | He Ain't Heavy, He's My Brother |
| 2011 | Military Wives with Gareth Malone | Wherever You Are |
| 2010 | Matt Cardle | When We Collide |
| 2009 | Rage Against the Machine | Killing in the Name |
| 2008 | Alexandra Burke | Hallelujah |
| 2007 | Leon Jackson | When You Believe |
| 2006 | Leona Lewis | A Moment Like This |
| 2005 | Shayne Ward | That's My Goal |
| 2004 | Band Aid 20 | Do They Know It's Christmas? |
| 2003 | Michael Andrews and Gary Jules | Mad World |
| 2002 | Girls Aloud | Sound of the Underground |
| 2001 | Robbie Williams and Nicole Kidman | Somethin' Stupid |
| 2000 | Bob the Builder | Can We Fix It? |
| 1999 | Westlife | I Have a Dream / Seasons in the Sun |
| 1998 | Spice Girls | Goodbye |
| 1997 | Spice Girls | Too Much |
| 1996 | Spice Girls | 2 Become 1 |
| 1995 | Michael Jackson | Earth Song |
| 1994 | East 17 | Stay Another Day |
| 1993 | Mr Blobby | Mr Blobby |
| 1992 | Whitney Houston | I Will Always Love You |
| 1991 | Queen | Bohemian Rhapsody / These Are the Days of Our Lives |
| 1990 | Cliff Richard | Saviour's Day |
| 1989 | Band Aid II | Do They Know It's Christmas? |
| 1988 | Cliff Richard | Mistletoe and Wine |
| 1987 | Pet Shop Boys | Always on My Mind |
| 1986 | Jackie Wilson | Reet Petite |
| 1985 | Shakin' Stevens | Merry Christmas Everyone |
| 1984 | Band Aid | Do They Know It's Christmas? |
| 1983 | The Flying Pickets | Only You |
| 1982 | Renée and Renato | Save Your Love |
| 1981 | The Human League | Don't You Want Me |
| 1980 | St. Winifred's School Choir | There's No One Quite Like Grandma |
| 1979 | Pink Floyd | Another Brick in the Wall (Part 2) |
| 1978 | Boney M. | Mary's Boy Child – Oh My Lord |
| 1977 | Wings | Mull of Kintyre / Girls' School |
| 1976 | Johnny Mathis | When a Child Is Born (Soleado) |
| 1975 | Queen | Bohemian Rhapsody |
| 1974 | Mud | Lonely This Christmas |
| 1973 | Slade | Merry Xmas Everybody |
| 1972 | Little Jimmy Osmond | Long Haired Lover from Liverpool |
| 1971 | Benny Hill | Ernie (The Fastest Milkman in the West) |
| 1970 | Dave Edmunds | I Hear You Knocking |
| 1969 | Rolf Harris | Two Little Boys |
| 1968 | Scaffold | Lily the Pink |
| 1967 | The Beatles | Hello, Goodbye |
| 1966 | Tom Jones | Green, Green Grass of Home |
| 1965 | The Beatles | Day Tripper / We Can Work It Out |
| 1964 | The Beatles | I Feel Fine |
| 1963 | The Beatles | I Want to Hold Your Hand |
| 1962 | Elvis Presley | Return to Sender |
| 1961 | Danny Williams | Moon River |
| 1960 | Cliff Richard and The Shadows | I Love You |
| 1959 | Emile Ford and the Checkmates | What Do You Want to Make Those Eyes at Me For? |
| 1958 | Conway Twitty | It's Only Make Believe |
| 1957 | Harry Belafonte | Mary's Boy Child |
| 1956 | Johnnie Ray | Just Walkin' in the Rain |
| 1955 | Dickie Valentine | Christmas Alphabet |
| 1954 | Winifred Atwell | Let's Have Another Party |
| 1953 | Frankie Laine | Answer Me |
| 1952 | Al Martino | Here in My Heart |