Europa League: How the Round of 16 Draw Changed the Outright Winner Odds

Before the Round of 16 draw, English duo Manchester United and Tottenham were the bookies' favourites to lift the trophy and secure passage to next season’s Champions League. With the draw for the next stage now known, is that still the case? Here we look at how the Europa League outright odds have changed.

Europa League Round of 16: Who Faces Who?

Before we unpick what the latest draw means for the Europa League outright odds, it’s important to understand what awaits each side. Indeed, it could have been better news for the three remaining British sides.

Tottenham, the newly installed favourites, face AZ Alkmaar which is far from a 'gimme'. AZ eased past Turkish Super Lig leaders Galatasaray in the playoff round and, at the time of writing, are unbeaten in five games across all competitions. For further narrative, Spurs academy product, Troy Parrott is their danger man with 17 goals to his name this season.

Loosely on that subject, Galatasaray’s big rivals Fenerbahce, who are managed by former Spurs boss Jose Mourinho are the task that awaits Rangers. The Gers have impressed in European competition over the last couple of years but a trip to Turkey and the tactical nous of Mourinho is a big hurdle to overcome.

That leaves Man United as the other British side to discuss. They face a 180-minute showdown with La Liga club Real Sociedad. Sociedad aren’t performing as well this season as they have done across the last few but have secured notable results against Barcelona and Atletico Madrid to showcase the threat they pose to United.

Notably, they also beat the Red Devils at Old Trafford in the group stage of this competition in the 2022/23 season. One critical factor we haven't mentioned though is that the British trio all have their second leg at home; this is widely considered to be an advantage.

How Have the Outright Odds Changed?

According to the odds, the big winners from the Round of 16 draw are Lazio who have moved from 8/1 to 6/1 giving them an increased probability of 3.2% to win the tournament. Their 6/1 price to go all the way implies a probability of 14.3% and is a chance shared with two-time finalists Bilbao and 2016/17 winners Man United.

Importantly, Bilbao and United have both seen their price to win the Europa League drift out from previous prices of 11/2 and 9/2 respectively. United’s probability reduction of 3.9% is the biggest move of any of the remaining 16 sides and is a reflection of the poor form United have shown of late and the challenge that awaits Ruben Amorim’s side.

It’s not all bad news for English clubs though; Tottenham are now favourites to lift the Europa League with an implied probability of 18.2% courtesy of their price shortening from 5/1 to 9/2.

As for other negative movers, in addition to Bilbao and United, only the highly unfancied FCSB have seen their chances of winning the Europa League reduce despite the shrinking pool of teams remaining. They’ve drifted from 100/1 to 125/1 to share an outright price with Bodo/Glimt. Only Plzen are longer odds at 150/1.

Other noteworthy callouts include Rangers who have moved to 35/1 down from 50/1 for a 0.8% shift in probability whilst Lyon and Fenerbahce, both available at 16/1, have seen their odds shorten from 20/1.