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With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability that each team will be relegated from the Bundesliga, according to the bookmakers.
| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | 4/5 | 55.56% |
| Paderborn | 6/5 | 45.45% |
| | 9/4 | 30.77% |
| Schalke | 5/2 | 28.57% |
| | 7/2 | 22.22% |
| Augsburg | 4/1 | 20.00% |
| | 11/2 | 15.38% |
| | 7/1 | 12.50% |
| | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 40/1 | 2.44% |
| Vfb Stuttgart | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| RB Leipzig | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 500/1 | 0.20% |
| | 750/1 | 0.13% |
| | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
As of 10 August 2026, according to the odds, the favourite to be relegated from the Bundesliga is Elversberg, best priced at 4/5 with Bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for Elversberg to be relegated is 55.56%.

We are yet to make our ante-post bets for the 2026-27 season, so check back soon.
The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga - at the end of the season - are immediately relegated while two teams from 2. Bundesliga are promoted. The third and final relegation, as well as promotion, is decided by a two-legged play-off game. Along with Ligue 1, the Bundesliga is the only one of the top five leagues to have such a system, with the others having three immediate-relegation spots.
This means that even if a team finishes the season in 16th place, with the Bundesliga being an 18-team league instead of 20, the team in question could still play in the top flight for next season. For example, Bochum won the play-off against Düsseldorf in 2023/24 after penalty shootout drama. Incredibly enough, both teams won their respective away games 3-0, resulting in the stalemate.