Bundesliga Relegation Odds
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Bundesliga Relegation Odds (2026/27)
Bet365 
Betway 
BOYLE Sports 
QuinnBet 
BetMGM 
10bet 
LeoVegas 
BetGoodwin 
BetAhoy 
BetTom 
The Favourites to Be Relegated in the 2026/27 Bundesliga
- Paderborn with odds 4/6 on Bet365
- Borussia Mgladbach with odds 13/8 on Bet365
- Union Berlin with odds 2/1 on Bet365
- Cologne with odds 5/2 on Bet365
- Hamburg with odds 11/4 on Betway
- Schalke with odds 11/4 on Betway
- Elversberg with odds 7/2 on Betway
- Werder Bremen with odds 10/1 on Bet365
- Augsburg with odds 10/1 on Bet365
- Mainz with odds 10/1 on Bet365
Probability to Be Relegated in the 2026/27 Bundesliga Season
With the outright odds, we can easily calculate the probability that each team will be relegated from the Bundesliga, according to the bookmakers.
| Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Paderborn | 4/6 | 59.88% |
 Borussia Mgladbach | 13/8 | 38.02% |
 Union Berlin | 2/1 | 33.33% |
 Cologne | 5/2 | 28.57% |
 Hamburg | 11/4 | 26.67% |
 Schalke | 11/4 | 26.67% |
 Elversberg | 7/2 | 22.22% |
 Werder Bremen | 10/1 | 9.09% |
 Augsburg | 10/1 | 9.09% |
 Mainz | 10/1 | 9.09% |
 TSG Hoffenheim | 18/1 | 5.26% |
 Eintracht Frankfurt | 20/1 | 4.76% |
 SC Freiburg | 66/1 | 1.49% |
 Vfb Stuttgart | 100/1 | 0.99% |
 Borussia Dortmund | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
 RB Leipzig | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
 Bayer Leverkusen | 1000/1 | 0.10% |
 Bayern Munich | 2000/1 | 0.05% |
Who is the Favourite to Be Relegated From the Bundesliga?
As of 18 October 2026, according to the odds, the favourite to be relegated from the Bundesliga is Paderborn, best priced at 4/6 with Bet365.
The odds mean that the probability for Paderborn to be relegated is 59.88%.
Bundesliga Relegation: 2026-27 Ante-Post Tips
In the Bundesliga, picking teams to go down is fairly difficult.
However, this year could be one of the easier ones. Indeed, it looks like a pretty difficult task for some.
Starting bottom, I think SC Paderborn are pretty doomed and 6/5 might be a great price from Sky Bet.
Promoted via the play-offs, their Bundesliga 2 campaign didn't really impress.
Of the promoted teams, they scored the second most goals, but conceded 45 goals.
Against top flight teams, that number could increase substantially.
I'd worry about them and with a poor transfer window, they could go down bottom.
Then, no surprise, but I've gone for another promoted team in SV Elversberg.
They have made a few nice investments this summer. However, I fear for them.
They've signed quite a few younger players and whether they'll be ready to be full-time Bundesliga players is another thing entirely.
It may be laying foundations for another season. However, I struggle to see them staying up this season.
Their approach is risky and I struggle to see the rewards currently.
At 4/5 with the best football bookmakers, it seems the market agrees with me here.
Finally, I've included Schalke in the bottom three, too, which would see them play the relegation play-off.
I'm most confident of their chances of survival and they've made a few smart signings.
Their foundations are pretty strong too after winning the Bundesliga 2 title.
We'll see, but I think they'll occupy that third from bottom spot in May.
How Relegation Works in Bundesliga
The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga - at the end of the season - are immediately relegated while two teams from 2. Bundesliga are promoted. The third and final relegation, as well as promotion, is decided by a two-legged play-off game. Along with Ligue 1, the Bundesliga is the only one of the top five leagues to have such a system, with the others having three immediate-relegation spots.
This means that even if a team finishes the season in 16th place, with the Bundesliga being an 18-team league instead of 20, the team in question could still play in the top flight for next season. For example, Bochum won the play-off against Düsseldorf in 2023/24 after penalty shootout drama. Incredibly enough, both teams won their respective away games 3-0, resulting in the stalemate.
