Bosnia-Herzegovina v Northern Ireland15/10/2018 19:45
Iceland v Switzerland15/10/2018 19:45
Spain v England15/10/2018 19:45
|Over 1.5 goalsSpain|
Northern Ireland go into this match in a difficult situation after losing last time out. They are bottom of the group and six points behind the leaders Bosnia. Even though Michael O’Neil’s side dominated the reverse fixture, they only managed to score late in extra time.
This is a testament to how Bosnia defend excellently as a team and Northern Ireland are bound to struggle in this game. They have failed to score in five straight trips on the road, last finding the net against San Marino in 2017.
Bosnia have kept clean sheets in seven of their last eight home matches, with four of them seeing under 2.5 goals. Northern Ireland have seen under 2.5 goals in six of their last eight away matches while Bosnia have seen under 2.5 goals in five of their last seven matches.
I can see Bosnia sneaking a win here, to 1-0 or 2-0. But, it could also be a bore draw which both teams have seen five times in their last 14 matches.
Switzerland have impressed me in both their recent games despite losing both. They are a fairly under-rated team and should win this match fairly comfortably. Losing to England 1-0 and Belgium 2-1 is nothing to be worried about.
Iceland have been on a downward spiral since late 2017, which has seen them lose five of their last seven home matches and drawing just one. In fact, they haven’t won a match since January 2018 in a friendly against Indonesia.
Since that win, they have lost seven games and drawn three of their last ten matches in all competitions. Including a 6-0 defeat at the hands of Switzerland just last month. The Swiss are in need of a win in this match to push for top spot in the group and should manage to bounce back from hard-fought consecutive defeats.
Switzerland have a good H2H record against Iceland, recording six wins and one draw in their last seven meetings while beating Iceland 2-0 at home in this fixture back in 2012. Iceland have failed to score in either of their Nation League fixtures so far and will continue to struggle against a defensively sound Swiss team.
I really do not like betting against my “own” team and I deserve to lose this bet for this reason alone. But, Spain are in terrific form right now, and it’s hard not to see the value in them winning. England does not have a good record against Spain on Spanish soil. They have lost their last four matches while conceding six goals and scoring none.
We did create chances against Croatia and should have drawn against Spain at Wembley. But, this will be a team even more fired up with confidence after their convincing wins against Wales and Croatia. If Spain wins this game, they will be sure to score two or more goals as their firepower is looking stronger than ever right now.
I can see some rotations in our squad and if we stick to that attacking 4-3-3 formation, Spain have the potential to run riot. There is a rumour Harry Winks is set to start in this match, which I cannot see going well against this talented Spanish midfield.
Alli, Lingard and Hendo all struggled against this midfield last time out, so I cannot see Winks favouring any better here. We are facing relegation in this match and I think we will try to push for a result here. Which will most likely leave us exposed but I can see a nice 2-2 draw on the cards if we are more clinical in front of goal. Either way, I see more value in Spain over 1.5 goals than I do their outright win odds.
Spain have scored twice in four of their last five matches while scoring 12 goals in their last three matches under Luis Enrique.
Steven is the product manager on BettingLounge and is an experienced iGaming writer who has been working in the industry since 2018.
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