Premier League Previews and Tips (30/01/19)

Bournemouth v Chelsea

Referee: Roger East

Can Bournemouth build on their 2-0 victory against West Ham last time out as they welcome Chelsea to the Vitality Stadium? Maybe, but it will be tough.

Chelsea won both of their cup games in the build-up to this match, but they have played two more games since Bournemouth last played, will tired legs prove a factor in this game? Just three days rest in between each match is likely to take its toll, but a healthy squad rotation has been there for Chelsea’s matches.

The Cherries have been a tough team to beat at home this season, losing just three matches against top teams in the league. They have lost to Liverpool, Arsenal and Man United while taking points from every other opponent at home so far.

Bournemouth have been particularly dangerous going forward this season as they currently sit as the eight-best attack in the league, scoring 33 goals to an average of 1.43 a match. That average improves further at home as they score 1.75 goals a match at the Vitality Stadium.

But, the Cherries are also prone to conceding a fair few goals. In fact, only the Etihad Stadium has seen more goals than the Vitality Stadium this season, where there have been 38 goals. Bournemouth have the fourth-worst defence in the league, conceding 42 goals to an average of 1.83 a match.

They will need to tighten up that defence if they want to get anything out of this match. Chelsea have a solid record against Bournemouth, winning five of their last six meetings in all competitions. Chelsea have won 1-0, and 3-1 in their last two trips to the Vitality Stadium.

Betting Tips

Firstly, Bournemouth are 19/4 to win, the draw is 13/4 and a Chelsea win is 4/6.

Looking past the win markets, I see real value in the goals market. First, both teams to score is best priced at 8/11 with Betfred. Bournemouth have scored in 10 of their 12 matches at the Vitality Stadium this season, while Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet in their last six matches on the road.

On that note, I see value in Chelsea to win and both teams to score which is best priced at 9/4 with Betfair.

Southampton v Crystal Palace

Referee: Andre Marriner

Southampton have started to hit a bit of form after two wins and one draw in their last three matches. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace have lost three of their last five games while winning one and drawing one.

Ralph Hasenhuttl has made a positive impact for Southampton, winning four, drawing one and losing three of his matches in charge so far. But, they face a tough challenge in Palace who are performing well on the road this season.

Crystal Palace averages 1.4 goals per match away from home this season while scoring 10 goals in their last four away matches. They have beaten Man City and Wolves while just losing 4-3 at Anfield last away match.

Betting Tips

Firstly, Southampton are 29/20, the draw is 12/5 and a Crystal Palace win is 57/25.

I feel like this is a tough game to call, and I will stay away from the win market in this one.

But, I do see good value in the goals markets. To start, both teams to score is 4/5, but I see even more value in both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 11/8 with William Hill.

Southampton have seen a rise in goals since the “Austrian Jurgen Klopp” took over, with over 2.5 goals landing in there last five home matches in a row. It has also landed in six of Southampton’s last seven matches.

Crystal Palace have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals land in four of their last five away matches with goals plentiful. Palace have scored 11 goals in their last five away matches while conceding 12 goals.

Liverpool v Leicester

Referee: Martin Atkinson

The league leaders, Liverpool go into this match having won 11 of their last 12 Premier League matches while winning their last seven matches at Anfield in a row. They host an inconsistent Leicester side that have lost three of their last four.

Liverpool’s record at Anfield continues to get better as they are now unbeaten in their last 32 home Premier League matches (W23 D9), despite Crystal Palace giving them a good 4-3 game in their last home Premier League match.

Virgil Van Dijk is suffering from illness and is a doubt for this match, and could be a massive problem for a side struggling with injuries to their backline. Lovren, Gomez and Alexander-Arnold are all out with injury, but Lovren could be ready for this match.

In terms of form and ability, it is hard to look past this Liverpool team. They will need to continue their winning ways with all three points with every match crucial for the title race. But, Leicester are in bad form, with just one win in their last five matches and four losses in all competitions.

Leicester fell victim to an injury time winner last time out at Wolves as they lost in a 4-3 thriller, but this should be a lower scoring match. Liverpool are only conceding 0.55 goals a match at home this season (best in the league) while scoring 2.82 goals.

Liverpool have won four of their last five Premier League meetings while winning every match at Anfield since 2015. This fixture can often see a lot of goals with both teams scoring in six of their last seven meetings, but Liverpool are a lot better defensively this season.

However, the key for them has been VVD, if he is not available for this match it could be a different story.

Betting Tips

Firstly, Liverpool are 1/4 to win, the draw is 6/1 and a Leicester away win is 14/1.

There is not a lot of value in the win market unless you have a good feeling about Leicester.

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Leicester may be struggling for form, but they are still consistent in front of goal, scoring in all but one of their away matches this season. I can see Leicester getting a goal in this match, but I still think Liverpool will be too strong for them. BTTS and match result Liverpool is best priced at 2/1 with Betway.

If you are building an acca, btts is still a great price at 11/10 with bet365.

Tottenham v Watford

Referee: Graham Scott

Spurs will want to bounce back from their recent cup disappointments after crashing out of the FA Cup and losing to Chelsea on penalties in the Carabao Cup. Their most disappointing result will likely be the FA Cup, 2-0 defeat to Crystal Palace.

Tottenham are now looking for their first home Premier League win since Boxing Day after suffering back to back defeats against Wolves and Man United. Asides from those losses, Spurs have been solid at home this season.

Meanwhile, Watford are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions and will fancy a result in this match. Spurs are missing a number of key players still, but Son Heung-Min has returned from his Asian Cup exploits, and he will be a big boost for Spurs.

Still, Spurs are without key players in Delli Alli and Harry Kane. Sadly for Spurs fans, their back up strikers are just not good enough, or close to what Kane can provide for the team. But, Spurs still have a very talented outfit and should put in a good performance in this match.

However, I can see Watford getting something from this game as they head into this match with four wins and one draw in their last five away matches.

Betting Tips

Firstly, Spurs are 4/6 to win, the draw is 31/10, and a Watford win is 5/1.

Spurs are unbeaten against Watford in their last six meetings at home, but this is a Spurs team low on confidence and plagued with key injuries. I do see value in Watford at 5/1, but I will play it safe and tip the double chance at 27/20 with 888sport!

Watford have drawn three of their last five Premier League matches, and I can actually see a draw in this one. But, Watford could also get three points in this match. Spurs could prove me wrong and play a cracker, but I would be surprised by their form and current injury issues.

On that note, I see value in both teams getting on the scoresheet. BTTS is best priced at 3/4 with Betfair. Watford have scored nine goals in their last four Premier League away matches, while Spurs have only failed to score in two home matches this season, against both Manchester clubs.