Chelsea v Newcastle – Match Preview and Tips
Chelsea v Newcastle – Sat 12th Jan, 17:30, Stamford Bridge
Referee: Chris Kavanagh
Chelsea lost 1-0 to Spurs in their midweek Carabao Cup Semi Final match, but it should have little effect on this match. They will look for three points after their disappointing, bore draw against Southampton in their last Premier League match.
Newcastle are without a win in their last four Premier League matches, drawing two and losing two. But, it’s their threat in front of goal that is the real issue for the Magpies. They have scored just two goals in their last five Premier League games while conceding seven.
In fact, Newcastle are the second worst attack in the league with just 15 goals in 21 games to an average of 0.71 a match. However, they have actually scored more goals on the road than at St. James’ Park. Only one more goal, but also in one game less.
They have been fairly tight at the back, conceding just 12 goals in 10 matches on the road, and I can see this being another textbook defensive display. Chelsea have shown some signs of struggle, and they are not too prolific in front of goal at the moment.
The Blues have scored just five goals in their last five matches, but only four in their last five home matches while keeping four clean sheets. Simply put, there have not been many goals at either end at Stamford Bridge in recent games.
Chelsea have an excellent record against Newcastle, winning their last six meetings at the Bridge while scoring 18 goals and conceding just two. Eden Hazard has scored six goals and assisted one in five PL appearances against the Magpies at Stamford Bridge.
Firstly, Chelsea are 1/4 to win, the draw is 11/2 and a Newcastle win is 16/1!
I mean, 16/1 is tempting me right now. I can see a really scrappy game in which Newcastle somehow steal three points with a bad goal to win 1-0. But, that is most likely the odds tempting my creative mind.
A more likely result is Chelsea to win to nil, but at 3/4 it does not offer much value. However, under 2.5 goals does stand out at a tasty 6/5 with Betfair. Newcastle have seen under 2.5 goals in four of their last five matches while Chelsea have seen under’s in their last five home matches in a row.
I am even tempted by the under 1.5 goals at beautiful odds of 19/5 with Betfair. A braver man than me would back that, but I do not want this game to feature one goal or less, because I will likely watch this match. Although the value is there…