La Liga Betting Preview – Valencia vs. Real Madrid: A change in fortunes for two historic sides
For the last couple of seasons, the fortunes of Valencia and Real Madrid have been on a completely different trajectory. Whilst Valencia were languishing in La Liga obscurity Real were cantering to consecutive Champions League victories and a league and European double last season under former player and head coach Zinedine Zidane.
This season however, their fortunes are changing. Things just don’t seem right at Madrid. While performances in Europe have still been strong (the loss to Spurs aside) their league form has been patchy at best leading to questions about Zidane’s tenure as manager. Valencia on the other hand have risen from various crises on and off the pitch to put a run of form together that sees them back where they belong, challenging for the Champions League places. In fact, this encounter sees third take on fourth, with Valencia five points ahead of Los Blancos – although with a win here and three points from their game in hand Madrid will feel confident about creeping back up the table.
As is always the case when discussing Madrid, Cristiano Ronaldo is often the focal point. The rumours linking him with his old club Manchester United are continuing this transfer window as well as the media fallout after his head injury at the weekend in the rout against Deportivo. More seems to have been made about his choice to check the damage on a phone than the fact he broke his scoring drought with two goals in the 7-1 win. It’s been a difficult season for the Portuguese number 7 with his usual scoring touch deserting him in the league at least, with only six La Liga goals all season. Despite that he’s 7/10 to score at any time with William Hill and 3/1 to score two or more.
Another player who’s had an up and down season but enjoyed a cathartic brace against Deportivo was Gareth Bale. Also, the subject of speculation from United, Bale has suffered an injury ravaged campaign only making nine La Liga appearances. He does however have four goals in his last three league games and six in total for the season – as many as Ronaldo. He also has eight in his last nine outings. We’re backing Bale to continue his run of form with a goal in this encounter. If you fancy a flutter on the Welshman to strike at the Mestalla you can get odds of 7/2 for him to open the scoring or 16/5 to get two or more with William Hill.
For Valencia the goals have been coming from Italian Simone Zaza, with 10 in 17 La Liga encounters, and Rodrigo with nine in 20 league matches. Both have lost their scoring touch of late however, with only one apiece in each their last seven La Liga appearances. Their form has dovetailed with the team’s a little as performances have dropped, culminating in the poor 2-1 defeat last time out at Las Palmas which left them 14 points behind league leaders Barcelona. New January signing from Arsenal Francis Coquelin may get his first start for Valencia in this encounter, something the hosts are hoping will provide additional cover in front of the back four against Madrid’s undoubted attacking talent.
When it comes to the head to head, Valencia can be confident in the recent form book. They managed a 2-2 draw in the capital earlier this season and we’re triumphant in the corresponding fixture last term – Zaza and Fabian Orellana putting the hosts 2-0 up within nine minutes, with just a single Ronaldo goal in reply. The ranks of fans in the Mestalla will be hoping Zaza can do it again. In fact, the last time Madrid were triumphant away at Valencia was in the 2013/14 season coming away with a 3-2 win. They are however, ahead in the overall head to head with 18 wins from the 34 encounters and will be confident of getting their season back on track with another three points here.
Valencia on the other hand will be planning on putting their disappointing loss to Las Palmas to the back of their minds and invoking the spirit of last season’s win here as well as this season’s big home wins against Malaga and Sevilla and hard-fought draw against Barca. The Mestalla is once again becoming their fortress and they’ll be pushing Madrid all the way.
We’re going for a repeat of the earlier season encounter at the Bernabeu and a 2-2 draw with nothing to separate the two teams. We’re backing Bale to get on the scoresheet but feel like it may be a difficult afternoon for Ronaldo. We think Zaza will be back to his scoring best with at least one for the home side.
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